Production levels don't dictate sales as demand is not there. They produced 46k more than they sold in Q1 and are up near 130k+ (depending on who's doing the calculation) cumulative inventory over the last few years.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Production levels don't dictate sales as demand is not there. They produced 46k more than they sold in Q1 and are up near 130k+ (depending on who's doing the calculation) cumulative inventory over the last few years.
Answer honestly - how many more deaths due to DUI, Aggravated Driving, Heart Attacks/Strokes, Sleepiness, Arguments, etc. do we have to live through to appreciate what FSD can do to this situation?
Haw many parties have you had a couple too many and drove? I am not saying FSD is there so we can get sugared up, but hope you get my point.
That $99/Mo sub can really help in those borderline situations.
Add the convenience factor go self drive the burger home and I am all for it.
Haw many parties have you had a couple too many and drove? I am not saying FSD is there so we can get sugared up, but hope you get my point.
That $99/Mo sub can really help in those borderline situations.
Add the convenience factor go self drive the burger home and I am all for it.
It's psychological, $299 "looks" much better than $329 a month. It's been proven that nines work in sales.
Finally, we have a paying customer! (Maybe I didn't buy enough TSLA.)
Cheers!
I think a single person could easily manage a fleet of over 100 RT's coming in throughout an 8 hour shift to charge and basic cleaning.
There will have to be some brick and mortar yards where there will be some humans involved in maintaining the fleet.
VERY good point. The multiple stop challenge is legit. Can it be "worked around"? Yeah, maybe, sometimes, but others would be painful (or impossible) - I'm not going to physically cart a bag of mulch around from one stop to the next. This is one reason I think the initial first "replace car ownership" use case (well after the "replace Ubers" use case) will be "replace SECOND car" at least in any kind of Suburban setting. I ASSUME folks dwelling in places like NYC might be able to adopt RTs much sooner, but for Suburbanites it will take some doing.
In truth, I wonder if many of these scenarios are just problems to be solved differently and I am just thinking of models that replicate today's problem the SAME WAY but with a RoboTaxi. @Knightshade 's comment about just using Instacart comes to mind as a different way to address grocery runs (admittedly, not w/o its own issues, but I digress). Heck, some of the roadblocks I am throwing up sound a lot like the complaints about EVs (i.e. they won't go 500 miles, charging needs to take 5 mins like a gas fillup, I need to tow 10,000 pounds up mountains, etc. ) - all valid concerns/comments, but things that, once we started actually driving EVs we began to see how there were workarounds for these issues or they just weren't that big of a deal after all...or we just had a second car (that spent a lot more time just "sitting" than most of us expected before we got our first EV).
In a controlled environment with all or most of the vehicles using FSD, I would agree wholeheartedly. Its why autopilot works so well in airliners, most if not all are using it (Airline SOPs).
An environment that would work today is BRT or Bus Rapid Transit. Those lanes that are for buses only, are popping up all across the nation. LA has a system of them. That network is tailor-made for FSD. Get rid of the driver and the system could interact with regular traffic where BRTs and Boulevards/ HOV lanes interact with each other.
If only Tesla made a bus.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I don't think they had to remove much of anything from Berlin that was installed, they just redirected the components (manufactured in Germany) to Texas.
This was done for the same reason Mexico is delayed. It allowed Tesla engineers already working at GigaT to be directly involved with development without adding burdens that engineering from afar, or, traveling to a place with language barriers, may hinder the process further. (GigaB and GigaM)
Add in the IRA incentives for US battery production and it was a slam-dunk good decision.
Because the battery production components are being made in Germany it would seem reasonable to expect them to be delivered at GigaB very quickly once they have finalized the line in Texas. Which, every indication is they are at that point, or are very close.
It seems more likely that other battery projects in Germany were cancelled for the same reason non-Tesla battery projects were cancelled elsewhere. Maybe other OEMs behind those battery projects weren't production-ready to commit to the supply.
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
If only some company making an EV bus contracted with Tesla to provide the autonomy components.
FTFY
Anecdotal: a friend bought a PHEV and asked me about wireless charging. However, that might have been because the charge port is on the wrong side and they find it annoying having to walk around the vehicle just to plug in and unplug.
But wireless charging certainly has greater potential application for AVs. At scale there would be a lot of spare time at night to charge AVs. If they can handle the charging themselves that's great. Employees would then just need to work an "assembly line" to tidy up inside the cars.
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We have two Model 3's, but my wife works at home, so hers usually just sits in the garage. I could use my personal FSD car to drive to work (about an hour), send it back if she needed it during the day, and then have it come pick me back up.
Then there's the whole "family's who are about to have teens that can drive" scenario. A RT network that could take my 16 year old anywhere, at any time, would save us a TON of money....and we only have 1 kid!
I'm liking the combo personal/RT network so far...at least for the next 10 to 20 years I guess. Then, once this is all fleshed out, I'm fine with an all out RT network.
Exactly. Its sort of like the discussions of "But how am I going to haul my boat around!!??" I mean -- if you're really the person who needs to haul mulch a couple of times a week, you'll want to always own a pickup truck. For the 98% of people who never haul mulch, its not an issue. For the people who do it once a year to set their gardens, they'll shift to getting it delivered rather than owning an $80k vehicle for that once a year event. Home Depot already delivers. This ain't new.
Its just a matter of people changing their habits to adjust to more advantageous ways of using the technology available to us. And its not a sacrafice that I'm suggesting -- those will really start to be the best/easiest use of time and money to achieve the goal, and people will start to recognize it and adjust.
Someone posted a fair argument and it's gone. The question was "But there's no (US) competition?" to my comment on overseas prices. Huge assumption IMO.
BYD said that they have no plans to enter the US BEV market - today! So are we somehow immune from competition by de-globalizing and more tarriffs? I have trouble believing the US could keep all competition out without royally juicing inflation here in the US. But it sounds like that's the plan.
If it costs
... who can afford any car?
BYD said that they have no plans to enter the US BEV market - today! So are we somehow immune from competition by de-globalizing and more tarriffs? I have trouble believing the US could keep all competition out without royally juicing inflation here in the US. But it sounds like that's the plan.
If it costs
... who can afford any car?
There is too much occurring today to focus on everything but, irrespective of the absolute merits of these numbers, I wish all would bear the following in mind. Just file it away to keep a perspective:
Some number of
On edit: perhaps I need add I am making reference to the $12.8T market cap and the reactions of some that such a level is ridiculous. That nugget I provided above suffices for those of you curious about when that was to determine such, and then see what happened to the entire US and world capital markets very shortly thereafter.
$12.8T today for any company is indeed outlandish - for me at least. $12.8T tomorrow? It’s almost guaranteed, as long as “tomorrow” stays undefined.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
@unk45 made a valid point regarding Tesla needing to up their game in regard to training. Particularly for having knowledgeable people ( or AI ) in positions that interface with the public to solve complex problems in Sales, Customer Service, and other roles where building knowledge will immediately enhance the customer experience.
May even be useful for imparting the 'Tesla state of mind' to production employees. (though I suspect something like this already exists for them)
Applications include any position that can't be farmed out to someone looking at a computer screen with a list of FAQs who has no product experience or knowledge to draw from.
Maybe Tesla could set up their equivalent to Mc Donald's "Hamburger U" as a training facility. Such training on actual humans could be translated to AI as well. Double your NN, double your fun!
May even be useful for imparting the 'Tesla state of mind' to production employees. (though I suspect something like this already exists for them)
Applications include any position that can't be farmed out to someone looking at a computer screen with a list of FAQs who has no product experience or knowledge to draw from.
Maybe Tesla could set up their equivalent to Mc Donald's "Hamburger U" as a training facility. Such training on actual humans could be translated to AI as well. Double your NN, double your fun!
Congrats, you have progressed to Green Belt. No, seriously... your "digression" was logical. (I only made it to Orange belt but won a silver metal in LA on a tie match and got to meet the Grand Master from S Korea.)
Here's the jewel... "just problems to be solved differently." This is mostly what I see bouncing around here recently. The pessimism here is because it doesn't fit existing mental models. The arguments against it are literally comical as people try to fit square pegs into a round hole, except it's not round at all.
jschwefel
Tesla fan/TSLA, Model Y and Cybertruck owner.
To be more succinct in this thinking, how can Tesla deliver RoboTaxis without steering wheels and foot pedals if they can’t deliver Cybertrucks without mirrors?
A few points:
1. As investors, the number one thing is that FSD is about to be solved. While we debate what I could call "totally solved" one thing which should drop away, even at the standards of the current version, is that FSD is some sort of experiment that is not worth paying for. Its worth it now, some might say "finally." But regardless of the past, now is now.
2. As an aside, I don't believe there is any problem with the sensor suite and hardware. When Tesla said that at least a 3.0 computer was needed, I don't see any reason not to take them at their word. Its was not then a lie, its not like some "to be invented 5.0 hardware" was needed.
3. What was needed, was the advance, which we call all see with v12, to move into city situations with the visual inputs expanded. I am constantly surprised, I guess, that its hardly ever mentioned that the difference between an actual driver and FSD is that FSD does not anticipate situations. Maybe this is because I have been using it since 2019, but I constantly think about how my own driving is at least 30% anticipating what to do next rather than actually observing the situation. Its not about more hardware, its not about controlling the car better, its about the software becoming more and more able to react to the visual cues that are blatantly out there in a driving situation. Thats why FSD is so great for older drivers, as we age, our actual perceptions and reflexes get worse, we rely more and more on all the experience of "what happened in the past" - sure enough (just like investing) relying on "what happened in the past" burns a driver of a car. P.S. thats probably the main reason why young drivers are not very good. The do not have the experience to anticipate well and, for the most part, simply do not driver slowly enough to allow their still developing experience to work. FSD is already "better" than a first year driver in the situations it is designed to handle.
I am convinced that FSD can achieve autonomy in driving with no need for anticipation. How it is monetized is a separate question which we are all speculating on. One thing which got passed over is the use case for food deliveries. In its present version, FSD can get to the front of someone's house from a restaurant. Frankly, deliveries of all kinds.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
To be more succinct in this thinking, how can Tesla deliver RoboTaxis without steering wheels and foot pedals if they can’t deliver Cybertrucks without mirrors?
What if every RT is designed to be configured with or without steering wheel, foot pedals, and mirrors. There would be a "driver package" that connects electronically to the vehicle's network bus after being physically installed?
And, this package could easily be converted from driver to driverless and back as needed, in the field.
Would that address this question sufficiently?
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