Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Linkmeup]

I don’t want them hiring employees that decide to apply based on the SP and a chance of becoming monetarily rich. That’s not why the original employees joined. It shouldn’t be why new people join the company because those are the kind that end up as the bottom 10%.

I guess I need to stop getting used to being happy and wealthy thanks to TSLA in the start to my middle age!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

NOW, as to why people might not see the value of FSD at $99/mo

it's worth it to me just for the auto park stuff. I'm terrible backing into spots like superchargers. And even worse at parallel parking (haven't tried that yet with FSD, hopefully it supports it)

 

[mickle]

Yes, that works, and that’s what I think (hope) Tesla is doing. Given the situation with something as simple as mirrors, it seems crazy to think Tesla wouldn’t have a parallel path for RT that includes a steering wheel and foot pedals.

I'm pretty sure the RT will not have any way to convert for a driver, there are many things you don't need in a RT that can be eliminated. Besides the wheel and pedals, you don't need door pockets, center console storage, glove compartment, rear view mirror, maybe even no frunk or trunk if that space could be part of a larger passenger compartment. Elon says he is going all in so it would be similar to his "Lidar fools errand" to have a wheel.

 

[Musskiah]

For all who think I am endangering my child, quite the contrary. I'm not turned around for seconds feeding him or like in the back seat working through educational games with him, 99% of the time my eyes are on the road, but I can devote attention to him in a way that is much more difficult when trying to keep the lane and navigate fully on my own. If you have ever dealth with a child in a car, you would genuinely understand what I mean. I texted and emailed BEFORE he was in the car precisely to be as safe as possible; also, the texting is through the car and the emails are read on the screen, glancing for a second or two when I am on a straightaway without a potential trouble spot present - which isnt unsafe. I am quite expert at both Autopilot and FSD - combined I have driven well over 100k miles across 4 vehicles. I drove a lot. I would wager I have more experince with FSD than @Mengy and @Knightshade and @cusetownusa combined! (Sorry to pick on you, but your contempt prior to proper investigation deserves a direct response). I really don't need you to judge me as "unsafe." FSD would nail me if I was being unsafe and it doesn't. Your opinion is conjecture. The fact remains, I derive great value from FSD, which is why I have always purchased it. Maybe you don't, and that's okay, which is why FSD adoption will not be 100%, at least not anytime soon.

Mod: This post is the last word on this subject. --ggr

 

[Krugerrand]

This is a valid question, and I hope it gets asked. It’s one thing to be between two growth waves, but it’s another to have sales contract.

The market for Model 3 and Y is huge and even though the Model Y was the best selling car in the world last year, it’s not like Tesla to rest on its laurels. Nearly everyone buying a RAV4, CRV, or similar ICE is a potential Tesla customer. LFG!

Yes, it’s valid. What isn’t is asking it here as if anyone has a clue. We do not.

So go ask the question of the company - we all have that opportunity. Or, ‘hope’ the company answers it.

Be proactive or - sit around twiddling one’s thumbs waiting for someone else to be the active investor the OP claims to be.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Say what? Are you saying this is what you will do if true unsupervised FSD is solved or are you saying this is how you use it now. If you are saying you are doing this now, that's crazy. No way I would text/email, play with kids, etc. while in charge of the car. Its not close to being able to trust it like that, not to mention the car would start going crazy if I didn't have my hands on the wheel or was looking down at my phone/computer/child/etc.

Unpopular as it seems, this is no surprise. You'll see.

I have also developed a third eye with a sense when danger looms. As co-pilot, I'm freed up to spend more time looking around the car (for an escape if needed, exactly like when I used to ride a motorcycle), or to glance at TSLA Stocks, or take a bite, change the music. The car let's you know when to pay attention somewhat already. So... for the experienced, 100% attention is not required IMO. However, there are many times that I grip the wheel tightly.

Jordan also talks about how his focus is divided up differently while on FSD. His experience and story would not have happened without an ability to prioritize focus as needed, which is different for FSD vs Manual Driving. His fear was having to drive w/o FSD (same experience here). I also understand addiction and it's gonna kick in for all those folks on day 31 when it's removed. Accident rates will climb, and I hope someone's tracking it when it happens ON THAT DAY.

No human has 100% focus on driving. So by this logic... are people nuts for even driving in a car on their own? Sounds cliche... but it's real. The phone distraction thing is worrisome with folks w/o FSD. That's who you should be admonishing, with a friendly reminder for the rest of the gang and newbie's.

I'm not saying ignore your plea, just a grain of reality. It's very very different now.

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780671555082592482

 

[Drumheller]

One would be more concerned about the employees who are presently working for Tesla. The way this layoff went down was haphazard and unorganized. Going to work to find your card key doesn't work. Layedoff and waiting for the next bus back to Killeen or Kyle. That was unprofessional and unnecessary. Oh, and a lot of hard-working and experienced employees who got good evals were let go too. Workers in Austin are still shaken up by it. This was not a cull of the bottom dwellers, no matter what Tesla's press release states.

Lets put aside that these are humans like you and me, who enjoyed their jobs and took pride in working for Tesla. The person who can assemble the Y door in their sleep and install it level many times in a 12-hour shift was just let go, and is going to be replaced by a newbie who is cheaper by the hour. That is smart?

Many here take solace in the fact Tesla continues to act like a start-up company. That is not the compliment one thinks it is.

Agreed that how it was communicated to employees was very poor.

Disagree about losing the best people. If upper management tells department leaders that the company is laying off 10% and they need to submit names, those department leaders are going to name their worst employees. It's relative, so they may not be bad employees, but they are the worst on the team for some reasons.

 

[Usain]

it's worth it to me just for the auto park stuff. I'm terrible backing into spots like superchargers. And even worse at parallel parking (haven't tried that yet with FSD, hopefully it supports it)

It does. And it works.

 

[cusetownusa]

it's worth it to me just for the auto park stuff. I'm terrible backing into spots like superchargers. And even worse at parallel parking (haven't tried that yet with FSD, hopefully it supports it)

It's a cool feature but I can't imagine there are many people that would pay $100 just for their car to park for them. I have tried the auto park feature and I find it easier just to park myself as it goes slow. Even if it could park as quickly and as well as me, no way I would pay $100 per month for it. But it is cool and hopefully keeps improving.

 

[Knightshade]

Disagree about losing the best people. If upper management tells department leaders that the company is laying off 10% and they need to submit names, those department leaders are going to name their worst employees. It's relative, so they may not be bad employees, but they are the worst on the team for some reasons.

FWIW this varies by manager. I've worked for a fair # of very big tech companies and see managers who handle this as you suggest.

I've also seen managers who pick the names of the employees most a threat to their own jobs in ways outside of them being bad employees (often the opposite)

I've also seen managers who do it straight seniority- last hired first fired.


Meritocracy is an ideal but as any org gets large it's rarely a reality.

 

[hobbes]

I disagree with you that going all in on autonomy is a risk free strategy, as FSD is not solved yet.

IMHO, the better strategy would be to produce the consumer variant of the Gen3 car FIRST with manual controls (for which the potential market is HUGE) while FSD is being solved over time, and THEN begin making the RT on the same lines as the Gen3 once FSD is ready. I agree with Franz and Lars on this one.

If these rumors are correct then Elon is doing this backwards, in an extremely risky decision, because if the manufacturing lines get ready to produce the RT and FSD is still not solved, well what then? Time to retool to make the Gen3 for consumers, which could have easily been done in the first place.

Maybe it´s just an Elon4d chess move: introduce it as Robotaxi, everyone will say: I want that as a regular car! And when the production lines are ready: voila, they are also making manual drive cars. Osborning avoided.

 

[Drumheller]

One side of me says that Tesla knows for a fact that FSD is going to be solved soon, and shareholders should not worry. The other side says that Tesla is the most incompetent company on earth. Here is some proof. Zero followup about the Long Term Shareholder program for Early CT delivery. They’ve got some of the most loyal shareholders hyped up for nothing. Shame on Tesla.

And this whole delivery halt fiasco. No one knows the exact nature of it, not even employees. Keeping it a secret is only creating FUD and other conspiracies, and gives customers a bad taste in their mouth. Do we really need NHTSA to be the ones telling us the truth?

And one more. They are doing NOTHING to stop people from reselling their Cybertrucks. There are hundreds on the market! Tesla needs to improve the customer experience, and stop treating people like a nuisance. Some parts of the experience are really good, and some are terrible.

I agree with your complaints about communication. That has always been a huge weakness for Tesla.

Regarding the cybertruck resell: my understanding is that, at least once, the owner became blacklisted from buying another Tesla.

 

[Thekiwi]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780671555082592482

Yes - this is the way (to sales).

 

[Musskiah]

No, it says factory construction starts in May. production in Q1 of 2025. (So almost a year from now.)

That's what I meant, my bad. Good catch. Can't edit my post now. Thanks.

 

[hobbes]

it's worth it to me just for the auto park stuff. I'm terrible backing into spots like superchargers. And even worse at parallel parking (haven't tried that yet with FSD, hopefully it supports it)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777365118973812940

 

[Krugerrand]

I agree with everything you said. For this one point above, ideally that would be one vehicle instead of two

I don’t disagree, it’s simply not my reality. I’ve almost always owned at least one more vehicle than the number of drivers in the household. I get uncomfortable when there’s only one vehicle per person.

Now there were/are reasons for that;

But for two vehicles (about to be a third) I only ever bought scratch and dent vehicles. That’s used vehicles for the English isn’t my first or second language crowd. I depended on those vehicles to get me where I needed to be. If one wouldn’t start, or was sidelined due to needing a brake job, tune up etc… I could just hop in another junker and take my time repairing.

It’s an old habit that served me well and simply became hard to break even with the odd new vehicle. It’s difficult for me to wrap my brain around one vehicle for a household of more than one. I logically understand it, but I can’t and won’t do it. It would be like owning one blender and having it break in the middle of a margarita party.

 

[Musskiah]

It's a cool feature but I can't imagine there are many people that would pay $100 just for their car to park for them. I have tried the auto park feature and I find it easier just to park myself as it goes slow. Even if it could park as quickly and as well as me, no way I would pay $100 per month for it. But it is cool and hopefully keeps improving.

Right, but it's worth something, and that's the point. All these small advantages add up.

 

[Thekiwi]

Let's just put it this way: the last major layoffs (9% of the workforce each time) were June 2018 and January 2019. After June 2018 their OPERATING CASH FLOW TURNED POSITIVE and never looked back, and look at their FCF improved by billions!

View attachment 1039398
How about when they cut 10% of the workforce and froze hiring June 2022?
View attachment 1039399
FCF went up by almost $3B!!

FCF is the metric to watch in Q2 and Q3. If you subscribe to the "doom and gloom" or @DarkandStormy narrative, a drop in FCF will support your thinking. The reality is, labor is so expensive, the results are predictable. The restructuring will make Tesla operate leaner and generate more cash. S'all good.

Cashflow is not going to be that great if inventory keeps building. For instance in Q1 due to the 47k difference between production and deliveries, we are going to see almost $2 Billion cash reduction from that inventory increase, assuming a little over $40k average production cost.

Combine that with apparently significant Capex spending on compute, and I’m not sure the cash balance will grow in Q1.

 

[Musskiah]

Cashflow is not going to be that great if inventory keeps building. For instance in Q1 due to the 47k difference between production and deliveries, we are going to see almost $2 Billion cash reduction, assuming a little over $40k average production cost.

Combine that with apparently significant Capex spending on compute, and I’m not sure the cash balance will grow in Q1.

I'm sure FCF will be tight in Q1, I agree. That's why I said Q2. In addition to the historical FCF jump the Q (Q2 NOT Q1] AFTER employee cuts, Tesla historically has a huge jump in deliveries after stacking inventory...

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

I have no aversion to using Tesla’s network because it doesn’t follow me around with the car. I certainly hope they build a robust and profitable EV charging network to further adoption. You may be misunderstanding the point of my post. I’m not willing to buy another Tesla automobile because I...

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