Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[alexxs88]

You just flip flopped.

Before you say there's not proof that more data = better model.

Now you are saying not proof that more data = signficantly better model.

The correct answer is, more (clean) data will always improve the model, but usually with increasingly diminishing returns.

BTW, that's why model size has to go up. You need both to get the best models.

Which is why FSD will rely on bigger and bigger models over time. HW5 should work I hope.

Agreed on all counts, I should've been clearer in my initial message.

What I meant is that there is a point at which more data isn't going to make your autonomous driving system better than others. From what I'm seeing Waymo already has enough data to achieve it in a way that won't affect commercial viability for RT. Sure, Tesla's might end up being autonomous everywhere, but as many other posters said before me, RT business is one where the majority of revenue is done in a relatively limited area. You cover the big cities and their outskirts and you're done. You might argue that, beyond having a subscription business (similar to FSD now), it won't be commercially viable to have autonomous vehicles go too far from their base.

 

[Musskiah]

Another Video that I'll let Gemini (ai.com) summarize for me and won't watch myself:

This video discusses Tesla's Optimus Bot and Elon Musk's expectations for the future of the technology. The speaker, Herbert, interviews Dr. Scott Walter, a Tesla bot expert, to analyze Elon Musk's recent comments about the Optimus Bot.
Here are the key points from the video:

• Elon Musk revealed that Tesla is working on a third generation (Gen 3) Optimus Bot, which will have 22 degrees of freedom and the ability to play the piano.
• Dr. Walter believes that this ability suggests that the Gen 3 bot will have improved hand dexterity and will likely be able to perform more complex tasks.
• Elon Musk also mentioned that future versions of the Optimus Bot may have customizable personalities and the ability to learn and adapt.
• Dr. Walter believes that these capabilities will likely be achieved through the integration of a large language model into the bot.
• Elon Musk predicts that the Optimus Bot could have a major impact on the world economy, potentially reaching a valuation of $25 trillion.
• Dr. Walter acknowledges that this is an ambitious prediction but believes that the technology has the potential to be very disruptive.
• Wall Street analysts are more conservative in their estimates but still see significant potential in the Optimus Bot.
• Dr. Walter believes that Tesla's advantage in manufacturing will allow them to scale production of the Optimus Bot quickly.
• He predicts that Tesla could be producing hundreds of thousands of bots per year within a few years.

Overall, the video suggests that the Optimus Bot is a rapidly developing technology with the potential to revolutionize the way we work and live.

I can tell you, from watching the video myself, there are many specific, important details and ideas Gemini misses. I think the summary is far too much of a generalization. Perhaps ask for greater detail in the interpretation.

 

[Huskyf]

Stock going rapid down in pre market ? Q2 report is out or persons know it ?
20 minutes later is going up again

 

[Stormy24]

Stock going rapid down in pre market ? Q2 report is out or persons know it ?
20 minutes later is going up again

Premarket futures down so that’s why TSLA is down. I think TSLA will go down today as yesterday was a pump and today will likely be a bump. Please remember TSLA has very little to do with Tesla.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Turkey / Türkiye and tax-optimised version of Model Y

412 Model Y in first 5 months of 2024, then 2670 in June 2024 (33% of all EV June sales in Turkey, 8.65% of Year-To-Date EV sales).

These figures aren't included in Europe numbers. Singapore also has a special low power version for tax/quota reasons.

Spoiler: Turkish language Tweet (click on translate)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808053847547330904

10% SCT attack from Tesla

When we look at electric car sales in June;

Tesla, which sold only 412 units in the first 5 months, reached the top with the delivery of a total of 2670 units with Model Y, which entered the 10% Special Consumption Tax bracket in June.

The sales of Togg, whose zero interest campaign ended in June, remained at 1733 units.

Let's see how the order will be as Tesla's deliveries continue at full speed in July.

At the end of the first 6 months, Togg T10X is the clear leader with 13021 units. At this rate, it seems that it will probably be at the 2023 level by the end of the year.

Here are the best-selling electric cars in June and the first 6 months

Tesla are in 15th position with 2.51% of June sales (all power types)

 

[Usain]

"Nothing compares to $Tsla's approach. I see imitation learning/end-to-end as the only effective approach for self-driving. While Chinese peers perform well on main roads, they struggle on frontage roads due to reliance on high-precision maps and rule-based methods (e.g. cars stopped in the middle of the road where there was no clear white lining)."

Yes, China's automakers are still on FSD V11 equivalents. If you have driven on V11 and V12, I think you already have a feel for what China can do right now.

The question is, how quickly will China be able to go end-to-end?

I think China can figure out a way to get the data. It might take automakers working together to gather that data, but they could get there.

Can they access the necessary computing infrastructure? I'm not sure how that happens. Any ideas?

Can China catch up to Tesla? How long will it take? My guess is 5 years, but the Chinese are very resourceful.

 

[Usain]

Interesting report of Chinese FSD competitors. Striking how many features (blue line to show where the car goes, sounds, dead angle camera) look very familiar. But performance looks solid judging from the few videos (which may be cherry picked, as many of FSD are). S

https://twitter.com/x/status/1807982122046484753

I notice that Herbert has reached out to Freda for an interview. I hope that happens soon. Good info on the state of automation in China has been hard to come by.