Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

I don't have Tesla Vision on my 2021 MX (vertical screen). Super bummer.

Do you mean you want to navigate your car in your garage while you are on the fourth floor? Or your garage is on the fourth floor?

Eventually I want to navigate from street level to my garage space on the fourth floor.
Somehow I doubt Robotaxi will anytime soon be capable of dealing with large facilities that have entrances and exits in different place, on different floors. Uber and local taxis have large problems with such places. Honestly, I expect never to have the functionality.

 

[Thekiwi]

Hard to judge, but expectations for P&D numbers are perhaps “meh” - no one expecting anything mind blowing, rather everyone expecting a year on year decline.

Which makes me wonder whether other info in the P&D report may yield some positive surprises.

There is usually a little bit of commentary around the numbers, so its possible we may get good language in regards to US shipments as an example that the market might like.

Also bear in mind the “other models” number will see strong growth (thanks to CT).

 

[uscbucsfan]

Hard to judge, but expectations for P&D numbers are perhaps “meh” - no one expecting anything mind blowing, rather everyone expecting a year on year decline.

Which makes me wonder whether other info in the P&D report may yield some positive surprises.

There is usually a little bit of commentary around the numbers, so its possible we may get good language in regards to US shipments as an example that the market might like.

Also bear in mind the “other models” number will see strong growth (thanks to CT).

They've delivered under 15k CT total. While it is picking up, it's a small blip on their total numbers.

 

[JulieN08724]

Was posted on the Dutch TMC forum.
BYD has some domain name work to do.

View attachment 1061334

byd.de

BYD. The competition is coming. They’re bringing it.

/s (I think)

 

[Knightshade]

Someone else had the same idea

Training to fix the cheat he found at the end of the video will surely require at least HW6.

 

[Thekiwi]

They've delivered under 15k CT total. While it is picking up, it's a small blip on their total numbers.

It may be a small blip on total numbers, but its a huge increase in their “other models” numbers - which all have an ASP $80k+ - which thanks to low initial CT margins may not be meaningful from a financial perspective, but provides an additional positive narrative for the stock.

Remember that outside of our little TSLA bubble there is actually a debate that the CT is a massive flop - it’s important for company results to actually provide the evidence to prove that baseless allegation false.

 

[Musskiah]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1806768689837908455

Tesla Ravecave Berlin #bullish

 

[y_naught]

It may be a small blip on total numbers, but its a huge increase in their “other models” numbers - which all have an ASP $80k+ - which thanks to low initial CT margins may not be meaningful from a financial perspective, but provides an additional positive narrative for the stock.

Remember that outside of our little TSLA bubble there is actually a debate that the CT is a massive flop - it’s important for company results to actually provide the evidence to prove that baseless allegation false.

Will Optimi be included in “other models” too?

 

[dl003]

Inverse H&S break above the neckline for all those TA kooks out there

a month ahead of you

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797740326196814215

 

[dhanson865]

Gotta love when you can't get a straight answer to a how many shares are there question.

So is is 3.484B or 3.186B?

 

[AudubonB]

Maybe the wording “At the end of 2024 the company had…” should give you pause. I certainly did

 

[dhanson865]

Maybe the wording “At the end of 2024 the company had…” should give you pause. I certainly did

adding more sources maybe you stop focusing on the poor sentence on the first one?

for whatever reason some sites say 3.484B and some say 3.186B and some say 3.19B (I understand the rounding), but not the 3.484 vs 3.186.

 

[Thekiwi]

China weekly sales: 14,100.

(This number seems to undercut the “biggest sales month” post from Tesla China the other day. June 24 ended up being below June 22 & 23.)

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It’s possible to have record sales in June but not record deliveries. We will know one way or another when the next few weeks of insured numbers are released.

 

[Musskiah]

a month ahead of you

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797740326196814215

View attachment 1061458

Let's just say I've been aware IV has been quite low and placing bets accordingly. Not advice

 

[EQC_]

...
Um, well you may not know but the CEO has stated for many years your HW3 vehicle will turn into a robotaxi someday. I didn't claim that.

Assuredly there will be other features and metrics that improve and do take up *some* of that added complexity, but the majority of the complexity is added to solve the sparse, almost stochastic edge cases in everyday driving. It's just like every other massive deep learning model developed by other tech companies. They keep getting bigger to get better.

Tesla is not some magic unicorn tech company that is going to toot out the same sized model with 20x the performance. That is what HW3 Truthers are now betting on.
...

Thanks. I think your response is reasonable and fair.

I'm also realizing that the current state of FSD performance is vastly different based on location and conditions. I know many people see FSD struggling for their needs, and need to correct it or disengage frequently. Logically, my area is actually pretty simple, so it makes sense that I almost never have a "critical" disengagement. My entire 65 mile commute each way is relatively low traffic density, ranging from suburban-ish roads to lightly curvy mountain roads to desert highways with 1 or 2 lanes going each direction. My non-commute driving takes me on pretty calm multi-lane freeways with predictable interchanges. And, honestly, I never drive in crowded urban areas with lots of hectic traffic. So, I almost never have a "critical" intervention. I nudge the car here and there, when I want it to leave a stop sign quicker, or to adjust speed a bit, or stop doing something that might annoy other drivers, etc. My main disengagements are mostly because I just want to take a slightly different route, or park in my garage, or navigate myself through the entry gate when I get to work....and also because occasionally I want to make a quick maneuver around a driver that's annoying me .

So, in my area, I don't see that FSD needs huge performance gains to be intervention-free for me. But, I totally understand that others have a different experience, and that it will take quite a lot to get to a universal/everywhere robotaxi.

Interestingly, if my experience means anything -- FSD does the best in non-dense suburban and remote-ish areas, but I feel like that's probably not a lucrative location for a robotaxi business.

 

[hobbes]

Interesting report of Chinese FSD competitors. Striking how many features (blue line to show where the car goes, sounds, dead angle camera) look very familiar. But performance looks solid judging from the few videos (which may be cherry picked, as many of FSD are). S

https://twitter.com/x/status/1807982122046484753

 

[Musskiah]

Interesting report of Chinese FSD competitors. Striking how many features (blue line to show where the car goes, sounds, dead angle camera) look very familiar. But performance looks solid judging from the few videos (which may be cherry picked, as many of FSD are). S

https://twitter.com/x/status/1807982122046484753

"Nothing compares to $Tsla's approach. I see imitation learning/end-to-end as the only effective approach for self-driving. While Chinese peers perform well on main roads, they struggle on frontage roads due to reliance on high-precision maps and rule-based methods (e.g. cars stopped in the middle of the road where there was no clear white lining)."

 

[Musskiah]

Bot Gen3

 

[Baumisch]

Bot Gen3

Another Video that I'll let Gemini (ai.com) summarize for me and won't watch myself:

This video discusses Tesla's Optimus Bot and Elon Musk's expectations for the future of the technology. The speaker, Herbert, interviews Dr. Scott Walter, a Tesla bot expert, to analyze Elon Musk's recent comments about the Optimus Bot.
Here are the key points from the video:

• Elon Musk revealed that Tesla is working on a third generation (Gen 3) Optimus Bot, which will have 22 degrees of freedom and the ability to play the piano.
• Dr. Walter believes that this ability suggests that the Gen 3 bot will have improved hand dexterity and will likely be able to perform more complex tasks.
• Elon Musk also mentioned that future versions of the Optimus Bot may have customizable personalities and the ability to learn and adapt.
• Dr. Walter believes that these capabilities will likely be achieved through the integration of a large language model into the bot.
• Elon Musk predicts that the Optimus Bot could have a major impact on the world economy, potentially reaching a valuation of $25 trillion.
• Dr. Walter acknowledges that this is an ambitious prediction but believes that the technology has the potential to be very disruptive.
• Wall Street analysts are more conservative in their estimates but still see significant potential in the Optimus Bot.
• Dr. Walter believes that Tesla's advantage in manufacturing will allow them to scale production of the Optimus Bot quickly.
• He predicts that Tesla could be producing hundreds of thousands of bots per year within a few years.

Overall, the video suggests that the Optimus Bot is a rapidly developing technology with the potential to revolutionize the way we work and live.