Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SteveG3]

perhaps part of the current bounce

As Tesla dives, analysts stay bullish: Job cuts signal 'productivity gains'

will be interesting to see what the range is today. can’t remember the last time an analyst other than Kathie Woods was more bullish than me.

 

[shlokavica22]

I didn't want to interrupt the gloom-and-doom party so I haven't mentioned this before - but have you guys noticed the following small detail in Elon's announcement?

Company Update

"For those remaining, although there are many challenges ahead, I believe we have the most exciting product roadmap of any consumer product company in the world. Full self-driving, Model Y, Semi, Truck and Roadster on the vehicle side and Powerwall/pack and Solar Roof on the energy side are only the start.

I am honored to work alongside you.

Thanks for everything,
Elon"​

(emphasis added.)

Note how "Full self-driving" was added as the first entry of an otherwise chronological list of products, sorted by expected product introduction date?

Model Y, expected to be unveiled on March 15, is second in the list.

This raises the possibility that there potentially going to be a "Full self-driving" product introduction between now and March 15 - within less than two months.

Maybe it's just coincidence - but I think it at minimum suggests that FSD is in the center of Elon's focus of attention.

The question is- is it a chronological order, or the items are listed by impact they will have on TSLA's future?

 

[Tslynk67]

What the ****.... my options worthless. Thanks Elon for your shitty words.

No more bags then...

 

[Drax7]

45,000 employees * .07 let go = 3,150 employees less
3,150 * $65,000 salary= $204 million savings per year

Or about $51 million per qtr.

Not massive savings, nonetheless tesla has so
Many projects .....

If the stock ends up on the day, would you buy more?

 

[Fact Checking]

The question is- is it a chronological order, or the items are listed by impact they will have on TSLA's future?

If it was by importance then I'd guess he'd have mentioned Powerpack in front of Powerwall: industrial power storage is a potentially a much bigger - and sooner to act market than residential storage.

Also, the Semi is probably more important in terms of future revenue than the Model Y.

But yeah - it's also possible that he just randomly listed these items in rough order of importance and I'm over-analyzing it, but I don't think he'd have mentioned FSD so prominently if he knew it today that it still was quarters away from introduction, right?

 

[traxila]

The question is- is it a chronological order, or the items are listed by impact they will have on TSLA's future?

Truth is TSLA gets zero valuation for its autonomous program. Waymo tagged at over 100bill, although I am sure it would be savaged on the public markets with relentless attacks. Nice to be private.

 

[shlokavica22]

If it was by importance then I'd guess he'd have mentioned Powerpack in front of Powerwall: industrial power storage is a potentially a much bigger - and sooner to act market than residential storage.

Also, the Semi is probably more important in terms of future revenue than the Model Y.

But yeah - it's also possible that he just randomly listed these items in rough order of importance and I'm over-analyzing it, but I don't think he'd have mentioned FSD so prominently if he knew it today that it still was quarters away from introduction, right?

FSD is valued as a trillion $ industry, so I think the first place in the list is justified. Nice catch btw!

 

[Fact Checking]

45,000 employees * .07 let go = 3,150 employees less
3,150 * $65,000 salary= $204 million savings per year

Or about $51 million per qtr.

I think that's under-estimating the costs:

• There's more to employee cost than cash salary:
  • there's stock compensation too, which gets expensed at 100% from GAAP profits,
  • there's variable corporate overhead related to headcount.
• I believe average salary in California was more like $90k?

The rule of thumb for opex is twice the base salary plus stock comp - but this highly depends on what kind of employees are affected.

Plus the "utilization factor" of remaining employees improves as well - which improves corporate wide efficiency. It's a pretty cold-hearted way to think about layoffs this way, but this is usually the rationale behind layoffs.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I didn't want to interrupt the gloom-and-doom party so I haven't mentioned this before - but have you guys noticed the following small detail in Elon's announcement?

Company Update

"For those remaining, although there are many challenges ahead, I believe we have the most exciting product roadmap of any consumer product company in the world. Full self-driving, Model Y, Semi, Truck and Roadster on the vehicle side and Powerwall/pack and Solar Roof on the energy side are only the start.

I am honored to work alongside you.

Thanks for everything,
Elon"​

(emphasis added.)

Note how "Full self-driving" was added as the first entry of an otherwise chronological list of products, sorted by expected product introduction date?

Model Y, expected to be unveiled on March 15, is second in the list.

This raises the possibility that there potentially going to be a "Full self-driving" product introduction between now and March 15 - within less than two months.

Maybe it's just coincidence - but I think it at minimum suggests that FSD is in the center of Elon's focus of attention.

Probably coincidence in terms of timing.

No more bags then...

Ouch.

 

[anthonyj]

A couple of $TSLA pre-market trading observations.

Firstly, I don't think any of the free charts is displaying useful pre-market trading volume data on a per tick basis - Yahoo Finance certainly doesn't - but I have access to the pre-market volume data and noticed the following pattern:

• Price dropped from ~$350 to below ~$320 on high pre-market volume.
• The 'falling knife' was caught on even higher pre-market volume.
• There's a number of very significant 30k+ shares buys (which are huge in the premarket) that maintained a $320+ price.

So all of that is pretty interesting IMHO. Either accumulation and dip-buying, or options related market maker price action.

Yes I saw bullish divergence on the RSI

 

[KarenRei]

There may also be some Q1 severance costs. The big savings would start in Q2.

 

[KarenRei]

Premarket steadily inching up. Will we not actually get those incredible buy prices we were thinking of? :Þ

To me, the worst possibility is "rather far down, but not way down".

Max Pain ($335) may actually work to our advantage today. $330 looks like the most realistic attractor.

 

[UncaNed]

My IRA used to be all in crummy CDs. Like an idiot, I started trading despite zero experience and very little knowledge, (TBT, I liked the looks of those cute little pointy charts... buy low, sell high, looks like shooting fish in a barrel, right?) and did fair-to-middlin', but still better than bank DC rates... then I messed up and sold it all at such a low price I needed a SP drop to the improbable low of $320. I can't believe I got my wish over night! I'm back in the TSLA game with a few more shares than I had before, better equity percentage, the SP will probably recover soon enough, and I might even buy a little more if it does drop below $310... All I do is buy and sell shares, some might argue that I don't really do that particularly well, but I wouldn't touch a put nor a call with a 10' pole, this still this beats CDs.

For me, this is a dream come true, a buying opportunity for many of us, and, IMHO, Tesla is in a better place now than when SP was in the $350's last year. Production numbers are high, model 3's are flying out the doors to customers, quality is improving, and I have no qualms at all about keeping all my eggs in the TSLA basket, but still not more than I could afford to lose in a worst case scenario.

Best of all, I'm learning a lot and I can't thank some of you guys enough for all he insights here. My sympathies to those of us who've just lost a lot, that was almost me...

 

[shlokavica22]

To me, the worst possibility is "rather far down, but not way down".

How come?

 

[Causalien]

Well, this got my attention. Had a bunch of usd that was waiting to be converted to cad. Looks like we have 6 months to see this new narrative play out.

 

[KarenRei]

How come?

Way down = good opportunity to convert stock to options.
Not down (or up) = good opportunity to roll options
In-between = just sucks

 

[Fact Checking]

FSD is valued as a trillion $ industry, so I think the first place in the list is justified. Nice catch btw!

Yeah - in fact a 7 trillion dollars revenue industry by 2050 according to this study:

"A $7 trillion annual revenue stream, according to a study released Thursday by Intel. The companies that don’t prepare for self-driving risk failure or extinction, Intel says. The report also finds that over half a million lives could be saved by self-driving over just one decade"
​

It crosses the trillion dollars boundary around 2035 according to them.

Which is why Intel bought MobilEye I suspect.

 

[shlokavica22]

Way down = good opportunity to convert stock to options.

But at the same time it will bleed to death your existing short term options, no?

 

[KarenRei]

But at the same time it will bleed to death your existing short term options, no?

If they were January expiries, yes. They're not

For the two strikes I'd like to roll back a week, there's still good odds (but far from certain) that they'll expire post-ER. And regardless, there's still a month to expiry. Lots can happen in a month.

A temporary dip will cost me theta on the possibility of rolling them. But the fact that their value will be "down" today is otherwise meaningless. You only realize a loss when you sell, and I have no interest in selling today.

 

[Fact Checking]

Yes I saw bullish divergence on the RSI

Most RSI metrics are not volume weighted though, it only takes the price into account which isn't very representative in pre-market trading. Yet there was significantly more volume in catching and reversing the fall than in the fall itself - which is usually a bullish sign.

Regular trading might still provide a new low - usually pre-market gaps are closed/exercised during the day.