I'd expect Chinese inventory to be more than European. Same number of ships, but it appears there were fewer deliveries and more delays.
And regardless, there was 3k in-transit inventory at the end of Q4. Predominantly domestic.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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I'd expect Chinese inventory to be more than European. Same number of ships, but it appears there were fewer deliveries and more delays.
And regardless, there was 3k in-transit inventory at the end of Q4. Predominantly domestic.
Right... so what's your point? That's around the same number as were in transit to the US at the end of Q4 (when they were ALL destined for the US or Canada, not even Mexico). That's probably the same number which are in transit to the US at the end of April (i.e. now). It's less than a week's production, and it's really hard to get delivery times under a week unless you're shipping to California.
That means US deliveries in April pretty much reflect US production in April.
Since the leaks indicate that they are integrating production for US and overseas now, as they claimed to be doing, you can at least double the US number to get total production. Which means they're over 5000/week production. Maybe higher if they produced more for overseas.
Wooloomooloo
Member
I really don't know but there was a rise in short interest in mid-April which coincided with the shareholder lawsuit filing, but it bounced on the 29th. Are you in the money currently?
Yeah, it was disturbing. Combine the information that Panasonic has installed equipment with a rated 35 GWh/year capacity (stated by Panasonic and confirmed by Tesla), with the information that they were only producing at a 24 GWh/year rate *and that this was the limiting factor for Tesla production* (from Musk himself), combined with leaks specifically referring to high scrap rates with Tesla rejecting a lot of cells.... well, I could only come to one conclusion. Especially since older leaks indicated problems training the workers in some of the exacting procedures necessary to prevent some of the vats from solidifying and requiring expensive, week-long cleanout procedures. This is supported by the Panasonic/Tesla statement that they are trying to get more pro
I hope some of the shortage is downtime rather than scrap, but given the way the lines work, a lot of types of downtime are going to generate scrap too.
Hmmm, I think it has to have higher overseas production to be over 5k/week. 10,050 * 2 = 20,100. Divide by 30 days in April and that's 670/day. 7 days per week makes that 4,690/week.
To go into more detail, it seems to be due to Panasonic screwing up really badly and not managing to get more than 2/3 of the targeted production rate out of their battery lines... and worse, this seems to be at least partly due to high scrap rates (rejected cells).
Nope. That's the most worrisome thing. It's also strained the Panasonic/Tesla relationship somewhat, unsurprisingly.
Musk was claiming that it was all resolved on the Q1 earnings call, but with no details -- I think he's trying to spare the feelings of Panasonic execs.
Pretty sure in the past Inside's first month of the quarter numbers are usually a bit light(Elon even commented about this one time). I wouldn't be surprised is it's 1-2k higher than what Inside is reporting.
But in reality, Inside's numbers could have been 20k and I doubt the stock would move. I feel that people here waiting for the stock to rebound during Q2 or even after Q2 prod/delivery numbers are out are going to be waiting a long time. In retrospect, I should have recognized the level of manipulation and capping that Wall St is willing and able to do. With the Q3 earnings, I don't think I've ever seen a company post a earnings report that surprised to the upside verses expectations as much as Q3 did. You're talking about a swing of 2 billion in FCF(expectations was about loss of 600 million in FCF, actual was positive 1.4 billion) and a 800 million swing in profit(expectation was loss of 500 million, actual was positive 300 million in profit).
I remember telling my wife "this is it, this is the moment Tesla will start to correct itself and start reflecting it's true value". The stock opened up 20% and proceeded to sell off throughout the entire day and ended up 12%. You apply that earnings to any other company, especially a tech company, and it would have been up 50% or more considering what the valuation was at the time. Wall St proceeded to cap the rise in the stock repeatedly in an effort to hold out for something negative and that got lucky twice.....once with the macro correction in Q4 and then the production(Raven for S/X), overseas logistics, and cell issues(Model 3) in Q1.
They were wildly successful in capping the rise of the stock on any positive news and amplifying the drop on any negative news, a lot of it false negative news. Even if Tesla hits Q2 guidance for both prod/delivery numbers and turns positive earnings in Q3, I think we only back up to 300-315/range...……….and that's a win for bears and shorts. I'm inclined to believe that they don't really care about their loses. I think they're being funded by the industries Tesla is disrupting.
Right now, the only thing that's going to pull Tesla stock out of Wall St's grip is someone or a company aggressively building a stake, likely something like 10% is needed. I know some here agree and some disagree with this thought, but I'm still amazed Apple hasn't made a move to acquire a large stake in Tesla. Who knows, maybe they have and Elon isn't interested. But just looking in terms of what could fundamentally change how the stock is valued and eliminate the grip of Wall St on the stock, Apple taking a large stake in Tesla would be the thing to do it. Business-wise, I don't think Tesla needs Apple. BUT...…..I do think Apple needs Tesla. They want to get in the Autonomy space.....they want their OS running on the Autonomous cars....they want their App store as what people go to when they are looking for things to do while FSD is handling the driving. We know they're going Lidar route which we think is a dead end....but they're behind even on that compared to others.
But in reality, Inside's numbers could have been 20k and I doubt the stock would move. I feel that people here waiting for the stock to rebound during Q2 or even after Q2 prod/delivery numbers are out are going to be waiting a long time. In retrospect, I should have recognized the level of manipulation and capping that Wall St is willing and able to do. With the Q3 earnings, I don't think I've ever seen a company post a earnings report that surprised to the upside verses expectations as much as Q3 did. You're talking about a swing of 2 billion in FCF(expectations was about loss of 600 million in FCF, actual was positive 1.4 billion) and a 800 million swing in profit(expectation was loss of 500 million, actual was positive 300 million in profit).
I remember telling my wife "this is it, this is the moment Tesla will start to correct itself and start reflecting it's true value". The stock opened up 20% and proceeded to sell off throughout the entire day and ended up 12%. You apply that earnings to any other company, especially a tech company, and it would have been up 50% or more considering what the valuation was at the time. Wall St proceeded to cap the rise in the stock repeatedly in an effort to hold out for something negative and that got lucky twice.....once with the macro correction in Q4 and then the production(Raven for S/X), overseas logistics, and cell issues(Model 3) in Q1.
They were wildly successful in capping the rise of the stock on any positive news and amplifying the drop on any negative news, a lot of it false negative news. Even if Tesla hits Q2 guidance for both prod/delivery numbers and turns positive earnings in Q3, I think we only back up to 300-315/range...……….and that's a win for bears and shorts. I'm inclined to believe that they don't really care about their loses. I think they're being funded by the industries Tesla is disrupting.
Right now, the only thing that's going to pull Tesla stock out of Wall St's grip is someone or a company aggressively building a stake, likely something like 10% is needed. I know some here agree and some disagree with this thought, but I'm still amazed Apple hasn't made a move to acquire a large stake in Tesla. Who knows, maybe they have and Elon isn't interested. But just looking in terms of what could fundamentally change how the stock is valued and eliminate the grip of Wall St on the stock, Apple taking a large stake in Tesla would be the thing to do it. Business-wise, I don't think Tesla needs Apple. BUT...…..I do think Apple needs Tesla. They want to get in the Autonomy space.....they want their OS running on the Autonomous cars....they want their App store as what people go to when they are looking for things to do while FSD is handling the driving. We know they're going Lidar route which we think is a dead end....but they're behind even on that compared to others.
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X Fan
Active Member
You're correct (I was lazily assuming 28-day months). Even a 45 US / 55 non-US split says we're over 5000/week though. And I have strong reason to believe in such a split.
Tesla still thinks the merger is happening; apparently they need some kind of formal SEC approval of the merger documents which has been delayed somewhat. The most likely way the merger could fail is if idiot stockholders fail to tender their shares. If the merger fails, MXWL will probably drop like a stone, and would need another white knight to avoid bankruptcy (they were actually seriously short on cash, unlike Tesla), so that would be bad for stockholders of MXWL
Wouldn’t the elimination of solvents and drying ovens change the cell production lines? Or are you saying the anode/cathode production lines are completely separate from the cell production lines?
You are being deliberately obtuse and I'm going to block you if you keep it up.
April US Model 3 deliveries ~= 10,050. April US production is approximately the same at 10,050. April overseas-targeted production is probably a bit larger, maybe 12300, and are all in transit. April overseas Model 3 deliveries are probably around 7000, which were in transit at the end of March.
OK, so you're not a competent investor. That was the time to buy. The time to sell was when the Saudi stake was leaked.
Somewhat OT:
I just noticed, in the drone footage of GF3 construction, the surrounding area is entirely flat grass/farm land. In the rendering Tesla shared of their design plans at the Model Y event, its entirely surrounded by trees. Will they be planting a large grove of trees around the factory?
I just noticed, in the drone footage of GF3 construction, the surrounding area is entirely flat grass/farm land. In the rendering Tesla shared of their design plans at the Model Y event, its entirely surrounded by trees. Will they be planting a large grove of trees around the factory?
anthonyj
Stonks
Breaking:
Tesla now has Tea K-cups. I am reiterating my PT of $420.69 a share. Have a good day.
Tesla now has Tea K-cups. I am reiterating my PT of $420.69 a share. Have a good day.
Good luck with getting enough financing to stay alive from trying to do that.
I have a little, unfortunate, personal experience with venture capital. And I learned one lesson: most VCs and corporate execs are greedy bastards, in a very particular way. Maxwell won't find anyone who wants to buy anything less than the whole company. They look cash-poor (58M in cash, 36M net loss per year, 45M loss from continuing operations, only $10M in lines of credit) and the vultures are circling. Their choice will be: sell the whole company, dilute it massively, or watch the patents be bought off the bankruptcy estate. Unless they get a white knight. Do they have a white knight lined up? None of the battery makers will agree to just buy licensing rights when they see a bankruptcy auction ahead of them.
The crash in the MXWL stock price before the Tesla merger was, IMO, due to this. They're not profitable, they're not cashflow positive, and they don't have a path to get there without a partner. Maxwell are really in the cash crunch which people mistakenly think Tesla is in. The technology is probably great, but I have serious doubts that they can get it into production without losing control.
I'm analogizing from personal experience here.
The merger is the best option for MXWL stockholders, unfortunately. Unless they have a white knight, but they don't.
Will the stockholders refuse to tender their shares anyway? Yeah, they might. Since I own a little (bought on the merger arb), that would make me sad, as I'd lose half my money when the stock goes down to $2/share. It is definitely a real possibility though.
I don't think Tesla will raise their bid again; they raised it many, many times during the negotiations. They might raise it ONCE more, MAYBE. Or they might say "not worth it" and walk away; they can bid on the bankruptcy estate as well as anyone else.
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The key is lots of labeled data. They have people label the data that comes in so there is a heavy manual component on top of the easy part, which is collecting the data.
That's true largely for object classification; something they're largely already very good at. For everything else, there are very good automatic labelling techniques that dramatically reduce the need for human labelers.
I think you might missed the part of karpathy's presentation where they automate most of the labeling using proven capabilities of the nueral network combined with multiple information sources. Manual labeling is still there, but heavily repetitive labouring is avoided.
I've often thought that the best course of action might just be to let the offer expire, let Maxwell crash back down, give people enough time to digest the reality of what happens if they don't accept the merger and to understand that there's no "white knight" out there just sitting on the sidelines, then make them a new offer on similar terms to before. Possibly on worse terms.
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