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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Swampgator
Active Member
Please don't use Stephen Barrett as a source either.
I stopped reading when he argued that NIR from incandescent bulbs is good for your skin and eye health. The energy levels of NIR from incandescent bulbs are many orders of magnitude below therapeutic doses for NIR and red light therapy, unless you're holding the lightbulb centimeters away from your skin
Light therapy is a very real thing, with very real studies to back it up. But it requires sunlike intensities. Low-intensity therapeutic doses don't start coming into play until you get to blue light therapy and shorter wavelengths, and even in the case of blue, generally only low intensity for increasing alertness and treating SAD and other depression (if you think that blue LEDs tend to keep you awake at night, there's scientific evidence backing you up on that!).
Blue light does have some harmful effects on the eyes... similar to, but much less intense than, that of UVC. Some of the same (but again, much weaker) negative skin effects as UVC as well. But it requires pretty high exposure levels for that to be meaningful. You're exposed to vastly more blue light just from skyglow when outside (let alone from direct sunlight) than you are inside from light bulbs. People forget (because of the way we perceive light intensity) that outdoor light is literally orders of magnitude brighter than indoor light. Unless you're lighting up your home with about 5kW of 20% efficient lightbulbs per square meter of floor space, that is
(Also, intense blue light has some therapeutic benefits as well - it's antibacterial, useful in treating acne, used for some skin conditions, etc... also, it most famously is used to treat jaundice. Various UVB and UVC spectra are also used therapeutically for a number of skin conditions, although generally not UVA).
As for spectra for light types, here's some various ones:
Should also add HID to that (HPS and MH) - HPS is used for grow lights, while MH is used to light up large commercial spaces and some headlights ("xenon" bulbs):
Oh, and LPS too (traditional yellow street lights):
Astronomers like LPS because it's easy to filter, as it's nearly monospectral. True LEDs are even more narrowband ("white" LEDs are actually blue LEDs covered by a phosphor), but nobody uses them for general lighting, as monospectral lighting is uncomfortable and has a terrible CRI. BTW, stimulating emission in a phosphor coating is the exact same way that fluorescent lights work - the only difference is that fluorescent phosphors are stimulated by UV from a mercury vapour discharge rather than blue LED light.
WHY THE BLAZES AM I READING ABOUT LIGHT BULBS?
ENDIT - NOW. Sole warning.
~Vetinari~
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They plan for Model Y to be in mass production in Autumn 2020. This will likely require equipment installation starting late this year. Lead times are very long on manufacturing equipment - I expect they ordered most of the line months ago. The Model Y production equipment will go in new buildings/tents at Fremont and old warehousing space. Potentially they could also create more space by combining the S/X body lines into one. They are definitely not using the Model 3 line for Y production. No way Elon has just suddenly cut his medium term US production capacity plan by more than 50% in the past 1-2 months.
"For Model Y production, we are right now trying to decide whether Model Y vehicle production should be in California or Nevada and we expect to make a final decision on that very soon. But in the meantime, we have ordered all of the tooling and equipment required for Model Y. So, we don’t expect this in anyway to delay production of Model Y, but it’s a very close call between Nevada and California as to whether we do the Model Y at Giga or at Fremont, but those are the two options and we will hopefully be able to make the decision in the next few weeks."
"credit goes to Tesla team, because they actually look at how could we do this in Fremont if we had to and we feel like we can actually append building space to the – to the west side of the building and use a lot of internal space that’s currently used for warehousing in the Fremont factory. And so we believe it actually can be done with minimal disruption to add Model Y to Fremont."
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
How about the FDA and FTC then?Please don't use Stephen Barrett as a source either.
FDA warns doctor: Stop touting camera as disease screening tool
$2.59 million in refunds for Mercola tanning beds
Swampgator
Active Member
I sure hope they come to their senses and choose Giga1. They don't have the logistics to get another 300K cars out of the Freemont parking lots. I realize they have the assembly talent in Freemont, but surely some of those folks would like to move to Nevada.
For short term Capex Freemont makes sense, but in the long run I don't think it does.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Sorry, that really needs a bit of fact checking: Donald Trump's been a terrible negotiator all his life, evidenced by:
- 6 bankruptcies of his companies, including bankrupting a casino in the golden 90s:
- 1991: Trump Taj Mahal
1992: Trump Castle Hotel & Casino
1992: Trump Plaza Casino
1992: Trump Plaza Hotel
2004: Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts
2009: Trump Entertainment Resorts
- 1991: Trump Taj Mahal
- In the 80s and 90s Trump had the biggest tax losses of any single individual tax filer, which added up to over 1 billion dollars of losses:
- Trump would have been wealthier today had he put all his inheritance from Fred Trump into an S&P 500 tracking index fund:
- In 2009 Trump could not get credit from any U.S. bank and was probably close to personal bankruptcy, and was effectively bailed out by Russian organized crime - which is where his exposure to Russia probably comes from.
Trump Allegedly Lied About His Wealth to Get on the Forbes 400 List in the 1980s
"While working on the Forbes 400 in May 1984, the reporter says that Trump contacted him claiming to be an aide named John Barron. In 2016, The Washington Post revealed that Barron was actually Trump himself and that he often used the name to pretend to be his own spokesperson."
"During the call, Trump as Barron said that he had taken control of the business he ran with his father, and should be credited with owning those assets as well, which would make him a billionaire. Under a previous editor of the Forbes 400 list, the magazine had valued Trump’s assets at $200 million, only a fifth of what he claimed to own in interviews."
...
"For instance, in his first appearance on the Forbes 400 in 1982, Trump is listed as having $100 million when he was actually worth around $5 million at the time, according to documents that later came to light."
Trump is probably still a billionaire today despite his terrible negotiation and interpersonal skills."While working on the Forbes 400 in May 1984, the reporter says that Trump contacted him claiming to be an aide named John Barron. In 2016, The Washington Post revealed that Barron was actually Trump himself and that he often used the name to pretend to be his own spokesperson."
"During the call, Trump as Barron said that he had taken control of the business he ran with his father, and should be credited with owning those assets as well, which would make him a billionaire. Under a previous editor of the Forbes 400 list, the magazine had valued Trump’s assets at $200 million, only a fifth of what he claimed to own in interviews."
...
"For instance, in his first appearance on the Forbes 400 in 1982, Trump is listed as having $100 million when he was actually worth around $5 million at the time, according to documents that later came to light."
This is why he is fighting so hard against releasing his taxes (which he promised to release - then broke the promise): the detailed tax documents would likely not only document outright tax fraud, but also how low his net worth actually is.
As a Chinese my personal view is that your hope of quick ending of the trade war for a reverse of TSLA is misplaced. TSLA will recover when they show upward trajectory of delivery numbers in U.S. and Europe. The trade war with China, on the other hand, will go on and off for years.
the democrats oppose almost everything from Trump except the trade war with China. This is a very rare bi-partisan consensus in a divided congress.
The effect of the trade war is worse on China too. I don't think Karl Marx has a solution, but he described the fundamental problems with capitalism extremely well: People as a whole can not afford the goods and services produced by themselves, so in a downward spiral we go. This problem is far far worse in China than in U.S. The evidence is clear as day. When you see venture capitalists in silicon valley praising China for their "996 work ethic" with low pay you know how bad Chinese workers are treated. Let alone all those horrible stories from Foxxcon.
China has been able to avoid the problem for far too long by exporting the excess product overseas, and by government spending on roads and bridges. The bills for those projects are carefully hiding in the books of banks. Now that road almost comes to an end. The new road and belt initiative is a clear indication that the domestic infrastructure investment is saturated, it must find a way out, and they offer to build infrastructure for other countries.
The trump trade war would put pressure on China exacerbating this problem. Chinese has decades to change course to develop a healthy domestic market and reduce the reliance on export, they did not. The next 5 to 10 years would be a real test to Chinese economy when the export already slowing.
Luckily for China, they have a billion people. If the government really want to improve the lives of the people, that's the worlds' biggest market right there, and Tesla can benefit from that too.
There are several significant constraining factors at GF!: labor, housing and water. More of GF1 would have to be built out to accommodate MY. Between doing the build-out and solving these other problems (if they can be solved), MY production would not be able to start on time, IMO.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I don't know whether the trade war with China will end quickly, and I have no 'hope' of a quick ending - but it's one of the possible outcomes once the Robert Mueller testimony is over and the full Mueller report has been leaked. Trump is reportedly very keen on seeing the stock market perform well, he considers it a scorecard of economic success:
Going into next year's presidential elections with a full blown U.S. recession will only happen I think if Trump thinks his chances to win a re-election are zero, and he's working on an exit strategy. He might be dumb and arrogant, but I think he's keenly aware of the relationship between U.S. recessions and single term U.S. presidents.
With the Shanghai factory progressing quickly Tesla will hopefully be decoupled from much of the China trade turmoil by the end of this year.
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But that’s not what “methodical” means:
“(of a person) orderly or systematic in thought or behavior.”
He hasn’t been systematic about much of anything. It’s more just flail randomly until/unless he gets what he wants(which, yes, is generally what he promised*)
*He has given up on some promises. Don’t hear much about his promised health care anymore.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Great, now would you care to pick out all of the business deals he has had throughout his life that proved successful?
See, this is why these types of arguments are so clouded. Each opinion can cherry pick the facts that best support their opinion and exploit those to justify their particular view.
Sounds very much like the arguments surrounding Elon and Tesla. We surround ourselves with those that generally share our opinion. Our bias is our fortress. In the end we make our choices based on our own interprutations and any attempts to sway people on the other side are generally fruitless because they have come to their own conclusions that happen to be different from our own. Until they have accepted and embraced a new reality for themselves, their opinion will generally not be swayed by others.
Dan
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Swampgator
Active Member
ZachF
Active Member
There's two additional things:
I don't think Trump can sustain a China trade war for months, let alone 1.5 years, if he wants to get re-elected: the extra tariffs are primarily not paid by China, but by U.S. consumers and producers:
- Firstly, China is a 'special' partner: China is the U.S.'s contract manufacturing partner. By trying to hurt China Trump is hurting the U.S. in equal, sometimes worse ways. China has other ways to keep workers employed (their main goal) - U.S. companies do not really have other places to manufacture goods at. I.e. China can adapt to a trade war's effects much faster than the U.S. and maybe they decided to deal with a Democratic president instead - it's only 1.5 more years to wait.
- Secondly, if this China action was simply a diversion tactic, to divert attention away from Trump's taxes and crimes, then there's nothing China could have done to prevent this escalation. Trump would probably have found a way to 'escalate' the conflict even if Ivanka's companies were given a 1000 years monopoly in China.
Not a fan necessarily of trade wars, but it will hurt China more than it will hurt the US.
Chinese exports to the US are >4% of their GDP
US exports to China are <1% of our GDP
Since both of these are in the high value-added tradable goods sector, you probably also have 2-4x multiplier value in these numbers. China has a whole lot more to lose than the US.
While GF3 will be very important for SR/+ Model 3 and Y, it will not do anything for Model S/X and LR M3 (as per current, public plans).
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
It's really simple: Trump says a thing, and also says the 180° opposite thing, depending on the audience. Later on they'll claim that one of those claims was a "joke" - or will simply lie about it. They even doctored official White House transcripts to falsify what he really said on tape - they are absolutely shameless and brazen about it.
The reason he has been attacking the "mainstream media" is because it's the only channel that can destroy his media persona and can spread the word that Trump is a habitual liar with failing health. They still have trouble saying it out loud.
I could be wrong, but I don’t think Elon or any of his companies has ever declared bankruptcy.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
I've really been trying to stay out of this, but... you ask "list which ones were successful"
Not @Fact Checking 's job. He pointed out many reasons why Trump would not be considered a successful businessman. And now you expect him to do defend your position?
More than that, whatever successful business transactions he may or may not have had, they were obviously outweighed by his disasters to lose as much money as he has been documented as losing. The notion that someone is worse than an index has been used before in this forum to demonstrate that their acumen is faulty.
It’s not so simple. US companies rely a lot on Chinese materials and manufacturing. If those dry up or get too expensive, that’s an awful lot of the US economy that will just stop working.
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