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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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OK, apologies if I missed something. I skipped a whole bunch of them because they clearly had nothing to do with Tesla but the usual suspects who couldn't refrain from going all healthcare, wavelength and Trump on us. I might have read them if I had the power to DELETE THESE ON SIGHT. But hey, I don't think I'll ever be made moderator over here for obvious reasons.

So, has there been any discussions of Pana's results call already? You know, a results call where an authoratie source might shed some extra light on what is the the biggest reason why Tesla had a lousy quarter?
 
There's two additional things:
  • Firstly, China is a 'special' partner: China is the U.S.'s contract manufacturing partner. By trying to hurt China Trump is hurting the U.S. in equal, sometimes worse ways. China has other ways to keep workers employed (their main goal) - U.S. companies do not really have other places to manufacture goods at. I.e. China can adapt to a trade war's effects much faster than the U.S. and maybe they decided to deal with a Democratic president instead - it's only 1.5 more years to wait.
  • Secondly, if this China action was simply a diversion tactic, to divert attention away from Trump's taxes and crimes, then there's nothing China could have done to prevent this escalation. Trump would probably have found a way to 'escalate' the conflict even if Ivanka's companies were given a 1000 years monopoly in China. ;)
I don't think Trump can sustain a China trade war for months, let alone 1.5 years, if he wants to get re-elected: the extra tariffs are primarily not paid by China, but by U.S. consumers and producers:


This is just plain stupid to the Nth degree.

China is a strategic competitor not a "special partner. "

Trump can sustain this trade war for the next 5.5 years.

The predicted economic chaos hasn't happened and will not happen.

The economy is doing so well Trump approved an additional 30k foreign worker visas.

The status quo antebellum means China has a massive strategic advantage in bilateral trade.

Any future POTUS that surrenders unilaterally will rightly be called on it during his/her re-election campaign.
 
Not a good one, as the NYT recently proved. He's been a BS artist his entire life. "Methodical" is not a word I would use to describe his actions.
The NY Times on Election Day had Trumps chances of winning at 10%.
Their Neo socialist agenda permeates their reporting through and through,
Except when it comes to Tesla, which they ridicule with gusto.
 
does anyone care about tsla stock price, where’s it’s going, or the causes behind the movements?

clearly theres going to be tangents when you have 100s of users, here and there, but it’s gone astray pages upon pages upon pages... and we lost a lot of good commenters along the way...why?

go back even just a year or two and read prior forums if you don’t know what i mean.

and listen, i’m guilty of it too. i complained incessantly about unfair treatment and false claims by media to the point i became angry....silly and not productive at all.

is the goal of ones comment for self-assurance? self-importance? to vent? or for helping the discussion? is the discussion relevant this this specific forum?

there’s a thread for every major subject. 5% of the comments are categorized correctly.

nobody commenting cares, proven by the fact that the stream continues. but that’s extremely selfish. because many of the best contributors from years past, who don’t have time to sift through that bullshit, simply don’t comment anymore. they’ve been pushed out. we’ve shrunken the pool of participants...and we all lose.

mods can’t keep up, there’s just no way, and it isn’t fair to task them with it at this point. and then they get stomped on when they make a bad move.

you are all great in your own way. and everyone’s contribution is appreciated. each comment’s feedback proves this.

pls, let’s just self-regulate better. for the sake of why this forum exists in the first place.
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i don’t recall seeing that trick before...interesting.

tradinginvest had a good post earlier warning about shorting uber. not that he/she validated uber or anything, but i think the point was not to underestimate the powers behind it.
 
OK, apologies if I missed something. I skipped a whole bunch of them because they clearly had nothing to do with Tesla but the usual suspects who couldn't refrain from going all healthcare, wavelength and Trump on us. I might have read them if I had the power to DELETE THESE ON SIGHT. But hey, I don't think I'll ever be made moderator over here for obvious reasons.

So, has there been any discussions of Pana's results call already? You know, a results call where an authoratie source might shed some extra light on what is the the biggest reason why Tesla had a lousy quarter?

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
 
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OK, apologies if I missed something. I skipped a whole bunch of them because they clearly had nothing to do with Tesla but the usual suspects who couldn't refrain from going all healthcare, wavelength and Trump on us. I might have read them if I had the power to DELETE THESE ON SIGHT. But hey, I don't think I'll ever be made moderator over here for obvious reasons.

So, has there been any discussions of Pana's results call already? You know, a results call where an authoratie source might shed some extra light on what is the the biggest reason why Tesla had a lousy quarter?

Not that I’ve seen, but please, discuss.
 
OK, apologies if I missed something. I skipped a whole bunch of them because they clearly had nothing to do with Tesla but the usual suspects who couldn't refrain from going all healthcare, wavelength and Trump on us. I might have read them if I had the power to DELETE THESE ON SIGHT. But hey, I don't think I'll ever be made moderator over here for obvious reasons.

So, has there been any discussions of Pana's results call already? You know, a results call where an authoratie source might shed some extra light on what is the the biggest reason why Tesla had a lousy quarter?
Sorry, the Trump rant started as a discourse regarding the potential impact on the market of the threat of further sanctions on China.

Dan
 
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Politics aside, really I am basically a free market guy and have voted for Republicans before, BUT I think this president is not at all concerned with anything but his own image. He is terribly ignorant of economics, international trade, and many other things, and he is not even really a businessman. He imagines himself a consummate negotiator, and the combination of that ego with a giant vacuum of knowledge does not bode well for a good outcome in the China trade negotiations.
& let's not forget that where things currently are regarding trade negotiations with China is all just more of his ridiculous drama. The Trans Pacific Partnership had been thoughtfully stitched together through painstaking negotiations among many Pacific rim countries over many years, was ready to go, and would've nicely constrained China and more/less forced them into a weaker negotiating position to enter the partnership. But of course it was that "other guys" deal and so had to be thrown out so we can end up with something worse years later & it'll count as "my win." Same with walking away from the Iran deal, attempt at "improving" by removing health care, NAFTA tweaks, etc. Just pathetic on so many levels, made more so by his complete lack of any coherent plan or strategy or thinking. But wait, he just received "a beautiful letter from the Chinese premier last night" so now the master dealmaker says we're back to being on the cusp of the deal of the century!
 
The predicted economic chaos hasn't happened and will not happen.

Yeah, U.S. economy suffering from the China trade war didn't happen - in some alternate universe.

In our universe just half a year of China trade war brinkmanship back in 2018 and early 2019 was a main factor that crashed the NASDAQ by ~30%:

2527-1546470128.png


That ~30% fall triggered right when the China trade war intensified, and NASDAQ bounced back when a looming China trade deal was announced. I also cited the studies that show that much of the cost of the China trade war is paid by ... U.S. consumers and businesses.

You can [somewhat foolishly] claim that it's coincidence, that it's completely unrelated, that all those studies are just librul conspiracies - but you cannot claim that it didn't happen.

China trade war and the U.S. tech sector goes down - and it's one of the possible recession triggers. TSLA historically also correlated with China trade war worries - given how big the Chinese EV market is.
 
does anyone care about tsla stock price, where’s it’s going, or the causes behind the movements?

clearly theres going to be tangents when you have 100s of users, here and there, but it’s gone astray pages upon pages upon pages... and we lost a lot of good commenters along the way...why?

go back even just a year or two and read prior forums if you don’t know what i mean.

and listen, i’m guilty of it too. i complained incessantly about unfair treatment and false claims by media to the point i became angry....silly and not productive at all.

is the goal of ones comment for self-assurance? self-importance? to vent? or for helping the discussion? is the discussion relevant this this specific forum?

there’s a thread for every major subject. 5% of the comments are categorized correctly.

nobody commenting cares, proven by the fact that the stream continues. but that’s extremely selfish. because many of the best contributors from years past, who don’t have time to sift through that bullshit, simply don’t comment anymore. they’ve been pushed out. we’ve shrunken the pool of participants...and we all lose.

mods can’t keep up, there’s just no way, and it isn’t fair to task them with it at this point. and then they get stomped on when they make a bad move.

you are all great in your own way. and everyone’s contribution is appreciated. each comment’s feedback proves this.

pls, let’s just self-regulate better. for the sake of why this forum exists in the first place.


i don’t recall seeing that trick before...interesting.

tradinginvest had a good post earlier warning about shorting uber. not that he/she validated uber or anything, but i think the point was not to underestimate the powers behind it.
Actually, from all the awesome speculation from a few posters over the years, the stock should be over $400 now. There was some damn good analysis that went on, but WS has kept this stock down for a long time now. What is the point of day to day trading?
 
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Some interesting comments from Tsuga. Hard to interpret , but sounds to me like Tesla is the party holding off on awarding Panasonic the contract for further cell capacity.

“On Thursday, CEO Kazuhiro Tsuga said Panasonic’s aim this year is to ramp up output before considering more investment.
“Batteries will run out if Tesla starts to sell the Model Y and expands its business next year,” he told reporters. “What will we do then? It’s one of a few topics to discuss with Tesla, including battery (production) in China.”

"Over the last three years, we aimed for stable revenue and profit growth focussing mainly on the automotive business ... but development costs and insufficient abilities to adjust to rapid battery production expansion limited our profits," Panasonic President Kazuhiro Tsuga said.

Tsuga, however, told a post-earnings press conference on Thursday that Panasonic's relationship with Tesla remained good.
"We are not just a supplier but a partner," he said


@schonelucht
 
The NY Times on Election Day had Trumps chances of winning at 10%.
Their Neo socialist agenda permeates their reporting through and through,
Except when it comes to Tesla, which they ridicule with gusto.

President Hillary Clinton concurs with the NY Times.

So does Elon Musk, Elon knows how accurate the NY Times is in reporting and prognostications.
 
Haven't been following this thread but just wanted to chime in that i hope no ones placed bets on a quick recovery. Stock price is completely broken at this point. Stock never recovers from the macro dips while the macros heavily recover. Stock climbs 4 percent on super heavy volume, then drops 4 percent on light volume. I don't see the stock recovering to the mid 300's for a long time, like not until q3 or q4. At this point i wouldn't mind it staying low until q4, would give me a chance to grow my position by another 20%
 
Haven't been following this thread but just wanted to chime in that i hope no ones placed bets on a quick recovery. Stock price is completely broken at this point. Stock never recovers from the macro dips while the macros heavily recover. Stock climbs 4 percent on super heavy volume, then drops 4 percent on light volume. I don't see the stock recovering to the mid 300's for a long time, like not until q3 or q4. At this point i wouldn't mind it staying low until q4, would give me a chance to grow my position by another 20%
Yeah, I'm not counting on a quick recovery. I had hoped for better than what is happening, but I'd forgotten that the trade war was only on hold, not done. Still, I bought low, and that hasn't changed -- it helped bring down my average purchase price.

Still, the trade war should really serve as a reminder of Tesla's positioning: production in Shanghai is not happening short term, but in the not so distant future will help alleviate tariff issues. At least the tiff is with China where a factory is being fast-tracked by the Chinese government for volume production by end of year (as opposed to Europe).

I don't expect the market to catch on to this until Tesla has at least a full quarter of volume production from Shanghai, but that lag just increases purchase opportunities. It bites if you need to cash out before the market recognizes Tesla's strengths, but otherwise it is just an extended buying spree.