Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Hank Moody]

They need to store spare parts for repairs whether it be collisions, break-ins, weather related damage, etc. And ideally it should be separate from the logistics path for production of vehicles. Teslas are notorious for taking a long time to get parts, in part because there's not really much of a supply of spare parts on hand, pretty much everything is earmarked for production of vehicles. So they need to start overproducing by a small amount (or perhaps a large amount, I'm looking at you rear quarter glass...) and storing the overproduction for replacement purposes at a separate facility so that they don't take up valuable space at the factory but can be easily shipped to where they need to go when needed. They don't really have the space for the necessary spare inventory at either GF1 or Fremont - all that space is too valuable and should be used for production lines or storing parts going soon into vehicles.

Edit: I should add that eventually they should have more distribution warehouses to avoid long wait times for shipping. Maybe half a dozen across NA, another half a dozen for EU? Can probably get away with just a few in China for now as the wealth (and thus owners) are concentrated geographically into a few regions rather than spread out across the entire country. Ideally common parts would be kept on hand in each city (though this can be done w/o a warehouse by just storing them at service centers and having the warehouse replenish them), less common ones should ideally not take more than 1-2 days to ship via truck (air freight would be too expensive).

Ok, that didn’t occurred to me and it makes sense. But then there still remains a question where they want to produce Y, semi and roadster. If Fremont stays with S, 3, X then it’s maxed out, which means that they should soon start building new US factory or scaling Gigafactory if they want to start production of all three of them in 2020.

 

[mekberg]

Almost every "sell" recommendation is at a local low, that's either f*****g stupid or incredibly dishonest, or both...

I noticed that last time this chart was posted. One could even use it as a buy signal. Perhaps the ratings are timed with other internal strategies.

 

[EVNow]

Almost every "sell" recommendation is at a local low, that's either f*****g stupid or incredibly dishonest, or both...

Generally, its just being late (happens in all stocks) - not sure in the case of Tesla & this analyst.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

It's not the paint shop:
View attachment 371186

This is ~8k/week M3 rate if sustained. Unlikely they will need to make more until they release SR, which is at least a quarter away.

Removing 75Ds will likely add another ~1k/week to M3 capacity. Pretty sure they can't put out 9k sustained right now.

1300 per day is over 9000 per week. WOW, Bloomberg Tesla Model 3 counter says under 5000 per week. If that doesn't give the stock a pop I don't know what will.

 

[KarenRei]

1300 per day is over 9000 per week. WOW, Bloomberg Tesla Model 3 counter says under 5000 per week. If that doesn't give the stock a pop I don't know what will.

9000 vehicles, not 9000 Model 3s. Also, don't expect that such a rate can be guaranteed for any specific length of time. But yes, it was very good news.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

9000 vehicles, not 9000 Model 3s. Also, don't expect that such a rate can be guaranteed for any specific length of time. But yes, it was very good news.

Oh that actually makes more sense.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Just picked up another 50 shares. Maybe I'll make it to 1,000 - we'll see. The most I've ever owned by far. Reminds me that sometimes you have to hit on a 16 in Blackjack no matter how scary. Except the only gamble here is on the macro IMO (Trump, War, Fremont Earthquake, Meteor) in that order.

 

[lklundin]

BTW, Model 3's spotted in Denmark too: European Tesla Model 3s spotted being transported in Denmark

Number plate of the carrier looks German, I think?

Within the EU little can be deduced from the number plate's country. It is mostly a question of where it is cheapest to register to vehicle. Also the drivers come from all over the EU, many from the Eastern countries.

 

[jhm]

Almost every "sell" recommendation is at a local low, that's either f*****g stupid or incredibly dishonest, or both...

Maybe it is a short exit strategy. Issue "sell," cover like hell.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

9000 vehicles, not 9000 Model 3s. Also, don't expect that such a rate can be guaranteed for any specific length of time. But yes, it was very good news.

So you were talking 7,000 model 3s a week. That's the amount I expected because I remember reading about a month ago were they had their first day of 1,000 model 3s in one day. That was also the number that was predicted in the last conference call. So why is Bloomberg consistently of by 2,000 cars a week? I guess it's because they are so conservative.

 

[EVNow]

What's the easiest way to track IV for TSLA call purchases? Knowing next to nothing, I'm just manually tracking certain strikes over time and looking up historical price charts. Can I look at an IV figure somewhere and reliably assume that day's calls are "priced well" from a volatility perspective?

Optionistics has some info, if you want to subscribe. I've not - they don't offer all the info I want.

Stock and Volatility Quotes for QQQ

I pull all the end of day bid/ask IV from Yahoo (which is free) into a SQL db. Then have reports on top. If you are interested (and if you are handy with sql) I can send you the code.

BTW, the IV has gone down a bit. Its back to where it was yesterday. Today it was up about 2% from yesterday earlier (before the big "news").

 

[M3Rider]

1300 per day is over 9000 per week. WOW, Bloomberg Tesla Model 3 counter says under 5000 per week. If that doesn't give the stock a pop I don't know what will.

That was all cars - S+X+3, so 300 can be subtracted as S+X. And, obviously, that was a burst rate as Q4 average was nowhere near those elevated numbers.

 

[AMN]

Just bought more shares and sold more OTM PUTs for February. Thanks shorts. I'll take your money.

 

[lklundin]

Wall Street is....... What can we do to help Tesla?

Right.

As in "That's a nice production you got there. Shame if anything were to happen to it".

Although I am an investor, I hope Elon Musk gives them the finger.

 

[Hock1]

So you were talking 7,000 model 3s a week. That's the amount I expected because I remember reading about a month ago were they had their first day of 1,000 model 3s in one day. That was also the number that was predicted in the last conference call. So why is Bloomberg consistently of by 2,000 cars a week? I guess it's because they are so conservative.

No. Actually, it is because they are so complicit in the short and distort consortium.

 

[lklundin]

Almost every "sell" recommendation is at a local low, that's either f*****g stupid or incredibly dishonest, or both...

As @avoigt hints, if the "analyst" was merely stupid, the recommendations would be all over the place.

The fact that they correlate quite well with SP minima suggests something sinister.

 

[avoigt]

From Vicki about the 75 S and X line. No surprise butl lets not forget more than compensates by the P3 AWD

have best friends that work there...morale isn’t good and everyone is scared. Model S/X production has slowed down considerably from what they are telling me

 

[Tslynk67]

Maybe it is a short exit strategy. Issue "sell," cover like hell.

If the shorts were able to form a coherent strategy together and rope-in some media and analysts then yes, this is what would happen. Engineer a 20% drop and allow the ones then above water to get out without a loss.

It's a compelling conspiracy theory, but would be very hard to organise and if found-out would be big trouble for them.

That being said, the shorts got vert lucky with the macro dump, without that I think they'd be toasted by now.

 

[CaliBear1]

Sold 250 shares @ 350 back in October to fund most of the purchase price for my P3D.* This irrational (orchestrated?) price drop has allowed me to purchase enough shares to get back to the 1000 threshold.

*My P3D is the most extraordinary machine I've ever owned. It puts to shame my last BMW, a 2015 335is. The people who I have given a ride to or let drive it who have little or no Tesla knowledge are just blown away by the experience. Tip of the iceberg.

 

[Hank Moody]

And one more thing about Lathrop. Few days back Tesla posted this job offer Maintenance Technician, Production Facilities (Day Shift) - Lathrop | Tesla. It seems to me that it’s not job offer for the existing building which they refer to as Parts Distribution Warehouse but for the newly constructed one. They even call it Production Facility in the title and from the job description it doesn't seem like a job in a warehouse.