Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

After a while, it's just exhausting, and we're not sure how much longer Elon can stress the company to its limits.

Well, 15 years thus far. Another 15 are almost certain. Nobody joins Tesla expecting cushy.

 

[powertoold]

This thought process completely ignores what Amazon showed is possible in terms of share price gains while being unprofitable and or wavering between profitable and unprofitable
When it became super obvious that Amazon was about to control most of the ecommerce space, that's when the share price took off. I think something similar will happen with Tesla. Once it becomes plainly obvious the Tesla is the only one with the means to control the majority of marketshare in EV and battery space, that's when it will climb consistently. Its already becoming obvious with the failure that was the competition in 2019, but if Tesla really does have a path toward terrewatt annual production, they will control the market in terms of both pricing power and supply.

What Amazon has done is relatively easy to grasp and understand. They're just a very efficient online retailer. They never really, as I mention, throw out seemingly ridiculous ideas without already having worked it out.

For example, 1-2 day shipping has always been available but prohibitively expensive. Amazon says they'll do free 2 day shipping. It's easy to understand. We're left to wonder how they'll pay for it, but if they're not bkrupt then we get it that they figured out a way to do it. Very simple.

 

[Big Dog]

fwiw: it looks like Elon just cut the price for the FSD add-on. My Tesla shows the FSD option for $3k, down from $6k. (I have EAP.)

Could be some FOMO takers.

 

[Singuy]

I know. It's been great, but also, it's been exhausting. I think it's great that Tesla is doing these things, and Elon should be proud of the team. What's exhausting is Elon throwing out seemingly moonshot ideas without much background information about how he'll achieve them.

Sure, we had an autonomy day, but we didn't really get a good idea of how Tesla plans to get to 99.999% FSD, given the limitations of ML. IMO, the autonomy day hasn't done anything except for having all of us constantly debate about FSD.

And now, Elon throws out TWh factories without any background on it, leaving us to go "WOW, COOL, but WTF?"

After a while, it's just exhausting, and we're not sure how much longer Elon can stress the company to its limits.

It won't hurt Tesla if Elon just doesn't tell us these things, focuses on releasing things as they're ready, and we'll go WOW COOL, LOOKS GREAT... rather than WOW COOL BUT HOW?!

I don't know, every company give investor road maps. Maybe Elon's roadmaps are just too crazy. But as of today, everything he said he would do has been completed from the first part of the roadmap. His secret master plans are roadmaps. Secret master plan part 2 is "on track", and secret master plan part 3 is "in development".

The only difference is, it usually doesn't take 10 years to fully complete one part of a roadmap. But ambitious goals require time.

 

[powertoold]

I don't know, every company give investor road maps. Maybe Elon's roadmaps are just too crazy. But as of today, everything he said he would do has been completed from the first part of the roadmap. His secret master plans are roadmaps. Secret master plan part 2 in "on track", and secret master plan part 3 is "in development".

The only difference is, it usually doesn't take 10 years to fully complete one part of a roadmap. But ambitious goals require time.

I understand, but master plan part 1 was relatively easy to grasp. Build a roadster level car, build a premium luxury style sedan, and then build a mass production car. It's been done before. It's just that this one is electric. We're left to wonder how they'll make a compelling electric car. We can see the possibility technically but maybe cost prohibitive.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What Amazon has done is relatively easy to grasp and understand. They're just a very efficient online retailer. They never really, as I mention, throw out seemingly ridiculous ideas without already having worked it out.

For example, 1-2 day shipping has always been available but prohibitively expensive. Amazon says they'll do free 2 day shipping. It's easy to understand. We're left to wonder how they'll pay for it, but if they're not bkrupt then we get it that they figured out a way to do it. Very simple.

Today what Amazon did 5 to 10 years ago is easy to understand and grasp. That was NOT the case 5 to10 years ago.......and I would very much disagree if you think it was. Amazon was very misunderstood for a very long time. Analysts literally said for years the traditional brick and mortar stores could pivot to ecommerce and crush Amazon whenever they wanted to........sound familiar???

 

[Singuy]

I understand, but master plan part 1 was relatively easy to grasp. Build a roadster level car, build a premium luxury style sedan, and then build a mass production car. It's been done before. It's just that this one is electric. We're left to wonder how they'll make a compelling electric car. We can see the possibility technically but maybe cost prohibitive.

Easy to grasp in concept (like the concept that cameras are like eyes, so full self driving with 8 cameras make sense)...but the execution is the "but HOW?". You have ICE cars getting better and better and historically car manufactures had a tendency to go bankrupt. The odds were not even close to be in Tesla's favor. It's even more stupid than to start a private rocket business because at least there are zero evidence that a private rocket business would fail, while there's OVERWHELMING amount of evidence that any new American car company would fail. Tesla went against hundred years worth of manufacturing that has stupid tight margins and stupid amount of competition. It's really an endeavor similar to climbing mount. Everest blind folded. That's why everything about Tesla is different to squeeze out as much margins as possible by focusing on software, the manufacturing process, and sales completely different vs legacy. It is the only way and ONLY now after years of bleeding cash do we see the fruit of it's master plan.

Tesla would be dead today if Musk followed what legacy car makers are doing.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Today what Amazon did 5 to 10 years ago is easy to understand and grasp. That was NOT the case 5 to10 years ago.......and I would very much disagree if you think it was. Amazon was very misunderstood for a very long time. Analysts literally said for years the traditional brick and mortar stores could pivot to ecommerce and crush Amazon whenever they wanted to........sound familiar???

Yep, I seem to vaguely recall some Barnes & Noble e-reader plan. I was kind of rooting for it too, as I liked B&N. Nooope.

 

[EVDRVN]

Not sure what you mean, but that looks like an "I'm sceptical" comment.

Think like Elon - in terms of exponential growth curves. If you haven't watched any Tony Seba presentations, maybe watch a few to get into the habit of visualising S

Not sure what you mean, but that looks like an "I'm sceptical" comment.

Think like Elon - in terms of exponential growth curves. If you haven't watched any Tony Seba presentations, maybe watch a few to get into the habit of visualising S curves.

Then look at what's happening already. Solar and wind are the cheapest energy - half the cost of anything that uses fuel and a third of the cost of nuclear. Renewables only downside is susceptibility to weather fluctuations, so the cheapest energy is best buddies with the cheapest storage.

Enter the gigafactories. Already Tesla is a growth engine for Nevada, Fremont, Shanghai and is contributing to growth in other places like Lathrop, Buffalo. Every time they construct a supercharger station the local economy gets a little bump. Every time somebody buys a Tesla, that person's weekly disposable income goes up by the amount they previously spent on fuel. Don't forget all the suppliers scattered across the globe, all seeing their orders from Tesla ratchet up, 50 to 100% per year. When electric Semis hit the scene, the cost of every product will fall by a few percent. Currently, 6% of the cost of everything is transport - expect that to halve. All that extra cash for consumers is economic adrenaline.

Now double the Tesla effect. Double it again. Keep doubling till you get to a terawatt hour of cells and related products per year.

Can you see the industrial revolution now? The fossil fuel era is as dead as the steam era. Divest sooner rather than later.

I'm in this industry I don't need convincing or explanations. You missed the sarcasm which has noting to do with energy.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

My office parking lot went from 1 Model 3 last year (me), to 2 three months ago, to 4 last week out of maybe 100 cars. San Antonio, TX.

I guess they heard the Huebner Oaks Supercharger is under construction.

 

[AZRI11]

34 years at my last company and I believe the average length of service there is 20 years.

Your a congressman?

 

[Artful Dodger]

The US uses an average of ~500 Gigawatts in electricity, so 2Twhs is enough to store 4 hours worth of US electricity consumption.

No. You provide stored energy mostly during peaks hrs and at night. The average consumption rate is not useful for sizing storage requirement. Its all about the 'duck curve'.

 

[Remus]

What Amazon has done is relatively easy to grasp and understand. They're just a very efficient online retailer. They never really, as I mention, throw out seemingly ridiculous ideas without already having worked it out.

For example, 1-2 day shipping has always been available but prohibitively expensive. Amazon says they'll do free 2 day shipping. It's easy to understand. We're left to wonder how they'll pay for it, but if they're not bkrupt then we get it that they figured out a way to do it. Very simple.

Now listen to yourself!!

Tesla, will produce lots of affordable long range EVs since it's clean with low running cost and almost maintenance free. Nobody else is doing that because it's too expensive. We're left to wonder how they'll pay for it, but if they're not bkrupt then we get it that they figured out a way to do it. Very simple.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Honestly, the way GAAP works it's probably mathematically impossible to make a GAAP profit above a certain growth rate and CAPEX percentage, even if you have very strong cash flow.

Not if a company grows by mergers and acquistions. Under GAAP, that allows them to claim the income of the acquired company but not their expenses (I've linked an article explaining this before. Search my History if you haven't read it). That's how Microsoft grew so fast in the 1990s, doing ~200 acquistions per year.

 

[dww12]

I guess they heard the Huebner Oaks Supercharger is under construction.

Where is that going to be?

Edit: Ok, found the thread on it. I pass within two blocks of that every day. Not that I need it, but I have some co-workers that would. Then again, I don’t have to worry about going low on charge now, anything over 20 miles of range and I’m good. Currently I rarely go below 100.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Excerpt from a Marketwatch article today (no link):

"Mr. Straubel made the decision to step down on his own as the company is maturing into a phase that needs more operational focus while he seems happiest working on new projects, said a person familiar with the situation."

Maybe a good thing. I would NOT necessarily say that Tesla is done with innovation and therefore not in need of JB. But Tesla could certainly use some operational improvements. So the focus on operation may be good. Maybe a bow to Jerome then, as he seems more of an operational guy.

It's interesting that Apple has become an operational exemplar over the decade (thanks to Tim Cook), but less of an innovator, while Tesla has become an innovator exemplar, though in need of more operational expertise. So, in this regard, a union of Apple and Tesla could solve problems for both companies. (Before people get into a hissy fit, know that I'm not advocating this, but only making an observation.)

 

[Chunky Jr.]

For people that complain about Tesla not making a profit, what specifically should they stop doing in order to be profitable? Stop working on Model Y, Semi, and Roadster? Stop building super chargers? Stop expanding service? Stop building GF3? Stop investing in battery technology? Stop working on FSD? If they did any, or all, of those things, would that really make Tesla a more valuable company because they turned a profit as a result?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

House and Senate Introduce Legislation for 5-Year Extension of the Solar Investment Tax Credit | SEIA

 

[Artful Dodger]

With the page views and syndication channels of Electrek his site is a de facto news site for Tesla news and Fred Lambert is a de facto journalist, even if he prefers to call himself a "blogger" in an attempt to downplay his responsibility as a journalist.

In fact I like the "Electrek's take" separation of opinion from news - it makes it clear which part of the article he regards as objective news and which part he regards as his opinion. I wish other journalists did that too.

Journalists don't take multi-hundred thousand dollar referral rewards from the companies they report on. 2 roadsters is worth $500K USD, or $650K CAD. That's about 10 years salary for a 'journalist'. Now argue it doesn't affect bias. It's a conflict of interest, pure and simple. It makes his motivations suspect, and his position untenable.

Calling him out for this obvious conflict of interest is the reason redFAy shadow-banned me on his site. There are plenty of other commenters here on TMC that have received similar treatment.

Suppressing dissent is not journalism either. Real Journalists support Freedom of the Press, Some have died for their cause, not feathered their pockets instead.

 

[kengchang]

As someone mentioned as a reply to one of my posts, it's likely Tesla will eventually exit the PV retrofit business. Its quarterly deployment numbers have only been straight down since the acquisition. And yesterday's number showed just about half of the the previous quarter's record low, and almost just 10% of 2016 numbers.....even with 2 months since undercutting bigger competitors on price.

Solar install takes far longer than 2 months to get done. Re-roofing, permit and permission to operate. Actual install only takes a day