Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Christine69420]

This a long but great read.

Hang in there and trade em well.

The Tesla Conspiracy... or Am I a Dead Whistleblower? - EVTV Motor Verks

Awesome article.

The guy is definitely overly optimistic here and there, and basically claims Tesla can have a monopoly on EVs, and all other car manufacturers will go busto. I could maaaybe see Tesla getting to monopoly territory, but only with autonomy. I do agree that at least some car manufacturers will either be acquired or go bankrupt in the next decade, but all of them seems extreme.

His claims about the SEC being in on it to some degree, and most of the money betting against Tesla being an expense rather than an investment, seem very plausible though. Thought provoking stuff.

Meanwhile, I'm very grateful for all this extra time to accumulate more shares while TSLA still has an 11-figure market cap. How much longer does everyone think that'll remain this way? I reckon 2.5 years until early 2022 at most. I don't see how TSLA can be valued at <100B$ if MY ramp is successful.

I have no problem beliving money is beeing poured into stopping Tesla and other EVs from taking over.

This has happened before. With sugar and fat.

Where scientists realized that it's sugar that give people heart problems, cancers and many other illnesses. But Big Sugar bribed and paid off people so that the official line became that fat was making people ill. This started the unhealty trends of eating margarine and not butter, eating anything low fat. And camouflaging the tasteless foods we got with even more sugar.

There is a movie about this called something like The Big Sugar Conspiracy. Or maybe something similar since I cannot seem to find a link to it online.

 

[Tslynk67]

I have no problem beliving money is beeing poured into stopping Tesla and other EVs from taking over.

This has happened before. With sugar and fat.

Where scientists realized that it's sugar that give people heart problems, cancers and many other illnesses. But Big Sugar bribed and paid off people so that the official line became that fat was making people ill. This started the unhealty trends of eating margarine and not butter, eating anything low fat. And camouflaging the tasteless foods we got with even more sugar.

There is a movie about this called something like The Big Sugar Conspiracy. Or maybe something similar sinca I cannot seem to find a link to it online.

It's all documented in the book by Nina Teicholz - all about money and big egos: https://www.amazon.com/Big-Fat-Surp...21247&s=gateway&sprefix=nina+t,aps,235&sr=8-1

 

[Chocochip]

Which I believe translates to “3 stones”.

3 diamonds.

The Mitsubishi company was established as a shipping firm by Yatarō Iwasaki (1834–1885) in 1870. In 1873, its name was changed to Mitsubishi Shokai. The name Mitsubishi (三菱) consists of two parts: "mitsu" meaning "three" and "hishi" (which becomes "bishi" under rendaku) meaning "water caltrop" (also called "water chestnut"), and hence "rhombus", which is reflected in the company's logo. It is also translated as "three diamonds". - wiki

Also, the Mitsubishi group is active in a wide range of industries in Japan (as is fairly common with major Japanese corporations), with their automotive business being just one small part of it. Check the side panel on that wiki page.

(Small aside: the Bridgestone co. was founded by Shojiro Ishibashi. Ishibashi literally means "stone bridge" in Japanese. Bridge stone had a nicer ring to it, so they went with that.)

A nod to (ripoff of) Mercedes.

In 1901, when Mercedes Jellinek was just 11 years old, her demanding father Emil Jellinek insisted that her name be given to an order of 36 cars he intended to buy from Daimler-Motoren-Gesellschaft.

Mercedes logo 1902 (above)

Daimler-Motoren-Gesellschaft used the Mercedes name for most of its cars and registered it as a trademark in 1902. The three-pointed star came later, in 1909. Jellinek had his own name legally changed to Emil Jellinek-Mercedes.

1909
From here.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I have a theory that a lot of TSLA stock is held by Tesla owners and future owners. As soon as Tesla stock reaches a new ATH, many of those people will take their profits and order cars, creating a new demand wave.
It would be interesting to see the average number of $TSLA holding for Tesla owners. I’m betting it’s higher than any other car brand.

 

[dc_h]

A positive article about energy storage covering Tesla and others in the field in the WSJ! It's not even pay-walled. I read a few comments, a good mix with expected negative bias, but support as well. Last weeks Manhattan Institute become a new source of misinformation for at least one reader.

Giant Batteries Supercharge Wind and Solar Plans

 

[juanmedina]

OT recommend Model 3 catches fire after hitting a stopped tow truck in Moscow (video)


Or it did pick it up, and that was the decision point for AEB vs driver intervention, hard to say.


Lame, the explosions were way after the car was fully engulfed. Which was after it started burning which was after the people got out.

Still not the worst headline I've seen: "Tesla Model S Explodes After Crash, Injures 3 People"


Edit: crash video:
Момент аварии с Tesla на МКАД попал на видео

can someone host the video of the crash somewhere else. It doesn't work here at work lol

 

[Foghat]

A positive article about energy storage covering Tesla and others in the field in the WSJ! It's not even pay-walled. I read a few comments, a good mix with expected negative bias, but support as well. Last weeks Manhattan Institute become a new source of misinformation for at least one reader.

Giant Batteries Supercharge Wind and Solar Plans

Throwback Monday:

“Tesla anticipates the long-term growth and impact of our energy products to exceed that of electric vehicles," it [Tesla]said.

https://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo...ction-begins-in-buffalo-tesla-again-says.html

 

[LJS22]

I have a theory that a lot of TSLA stock is held by Tesla owners and future owners. As soon as Tesla stock reaches a new ATH, many of those people will take their profits and order cars, creating a new demand wave.
It would be interesting to see the average number of $TSLA holding for Tesla owners. I’m betting it’s higher than any other car brand.

Tesla should raise the price of every car $250 and issue the purchaser a share of TSLA. But the SEC might have an issue with that.

 

[StealthP3D]

I believe he makes a pretty good argument for Model Y production starting in 2020 Q1.

Yes, beginning a few months ago I've said that I believe the Model Y production dates have been purposefully sandbagged by Elon to shock the market (in a good way). The only argument against this I've heard is that during the Q2 earnings call Musk guided towards Q3 2020. But he didn't really say that would be the start of production, he said they are on track to make that goal. I take that to mean it could be sooner.

I also think production will ramp much more quickly using the lessons learned from trying to over-automate the Model 3 production line.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla should raise the price of every car $250 and issue the purchaser a share of TSLA. But the SEC might have an issue with that.

Tesla doesn't want a bunch of 1 share owners - it costs them significant expense to have that many shareholders.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Anyone noticed this?
Electric cars to enter next gear as government doubles funding for charging points on residential streets

Our new transport minister (Grant Shapps) is a long time Tesla fan and his model 3 should be delivered any day now...
That has to be a good sign

This week Shapps will practise what he preaches when he takes delivery of a battery-powered Tesla, paid for with £44,000 of his own money (plus a £3,500 government grant). It is equipped with “full self-driving capability”, a £5,800 option that allows the car to drive autonomously. He ordered it two years ago, long before he knew he would be the minister in charge of transport.

Even the transport minister of Norway, which leads the world in electric cars per head, has a diesel SUV at home.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I believe he makes a pretty good argument for Model Y production starting in 2020 Q1.

His main point is Musk said Q1 would be "tough" and Q3/Q4 of 2020 would be "incredible". But Musk was talking about demand. IMHO this guy misinterpreted tough to mean negative cash flow during a new model ramp.

I do expect Tesla to deliver employee beta cars in March/April (but quietly this time) and follow up with customer cars in Q2. But that's mostly a hunch. And it doesn't take me four and a half minute to say it, lol.​

Tesla management said they expect production and deliveries to grow quarter on quarter. I don’t know why anyone would doubt that statements veracity,...

Yeah, it's been a full six months since they gave egregiously erroneous guidance

 

[UncaNed]

Tesla doesn't want a bunch of 1 share owners - it costs them significant expense to have that many shareholders.

What does that cost Tesla?

 

[EVNow]

His main point is Musk said Q1 would be "tough" and Q3/Q4 of 2020 would be "incredible". But Musk was talking about demand. IMHO this guy misinterpreted tough to mean negative cash flow during a new model ramp.

To get negative cash flows lot of things have to go wrong - low deliveries, lot of inventory buildup, high capex, problems with GF3 etc.

What I'm not sure of is - effect of GF3 on cash flow in Q1/Q2. If Tesla starts spending a lot of cash on GF3 but can't get the volume up smoothly, they would be in a somewhat similar situation as in Q1 '18 - but much less severe. I doubt this would push them to negative cash flow.

My current Q3/Q4 operating cash flow estimates are ~ $1B each (Q2 was $863M).

 

[elasalle]

I think I saw a tweet saying one of the ships headed for OZ/NZ, RHD ....

 

[StealthP3D]

What does that cost Tesla?

They have to treat owners of 1 share the same as owners of thousands of shares. Administrative costs, mailing costs, and program costs (annual reports) go up in proportion to the total number of shareholders. It's not uncommon for public companies to offer to buy back shares of small shareholders to reduce the total number of shareholders.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The FUD about ‘an exploding Tesla blowing up the Kremlin’ is clearly doing its work today.

 

[willw64]

The FUD about ‘an exploding Tesla blowing up the Kremlin’ is clearly doing its work today.

Also another negative post on seeking alpha about european sales of M3.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I have a theory that a lot of TSLA stock is held by Tesla owners and future owners. As soon as Tesla stock reaches a new ATH, many of those people will take their profits and order cars, creating a new demand wave.
It would be interesting to see the average number of $TSLA holding for Tesla owners. I’m betting it’s higher than any other car brand.

You can count me as one of those.

Dan

 

[KarenRei]

Also another negative post on seeking alpha about european sales of M3.

I don't think the market cares about what Anton "Let's Pretend There Were No In-Transit Cars In Europe At The Start Of Q2" Wahlman writes on Seeking Alpha