Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

"The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions." - Paul Samuelson

 

[dww12]

That's what cabin overheat protection does.

That can be turned off. Then you forget.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Congrats, you've constrained the scenario sufficiently to make your point. Never mind that the choices should be regen versus friction brakes in that scenario. But sure, on a long decline, with no follow-up incline nor any further stretch of road to follow, regen would be better than coasting.

Allowing for non-flat roads is the opposite of a constraint.

Other scenarios where regen has the advantage over coasting:
Stopsign on a slight downhill slope.
Stoplight that might still be red when you get there (regen is better if regen efficiency percentage is better than green light probability)
Stopsign with A/C is on full blast. Time spent below max efficiency speed is wasted energy. Better to decel later using regen than to coast below ~30mph
Time constraints

Scenarios where coasting has the advantage:
Stopsign on an uphill slope.
Stoplight you’re sure will turn green in time
A/C off (allows for lower max efficiency speed, earlier decel)

Porsche: for the driver who only drives on flat roads with no traffic, and has time to coast to every stop sign with the a/c off.

 

[jerry33]

That can be turned off. Then you forget.

Why would you turn it off?

 

[KarenRei]

That can be turned off. Then you forget.

So don't shut it off maybe?

It's like the old joke... "Doctor, it hurts when I do this!" "Well, don't do that!"

 

[bhtooefr]

Porsche: for the driver who only drives on flat roads with no traffic, and has time to coast to every stop sign with the a/c off.

You say that like the Taycan doesn't have regen.

It does, it's just blended on the brake pedal.

Why would you turn it off?

Not wanting to take a range hit when the car is parked unattended? (I mean I've literally seen someone going "wtf why is my range dropp- oh, cabin overheat protection", and then shutting it off, on an original S 60 at an event where there wasn't a convenient plug. And on an S 60, not wasting your range really matters.)

 

[jerry33]

You say that like the Taycan doesn't have regen.

It does, it's just blended on the brake pedal.

How awful. Inconsistent brake feel and lot of added complexity for zero gains.

Not wanting to take a range hit when the car is parked unattended? (I mean I've literally seen someone going "wtf why is my range dropp- oh, cabin overheat protection", and then shutting it off, on an original S 60 at an event where there wasn't a convenient plug. And on an S 60, not wasting your range really matters.)

Well, the original solution proposed was one that couldn't be shut off, what's the difference? The car won't be able to tell if there is someone in the permanently mounted child seat. So it would use the energy anyway. Zero difference.

 

[KarenRei]

Not wanting to take a range hit when the car is parked unattended?

You could probably also reduce range drop by disabling all battery conditioning. That doesn't make it a smart idea.

Even forget about accidentally leaving something or someone important inside (you are not mistake-proof, and don't try to convince yourself otherwise) - do you think it's good for your interior to hit 60°C or more?

 

[madodel]

It is the parent's responsibility to remember. Yes, it's terrible that they forget as often as they do, but it's not the car's fault nor should they be expected to correct it.

Think about what such a feature would entail. A weight sensor? Oh, but those are usually disabled when a seatbelt is properly clicked, since otherwise we'd all go insane with beeps as we sit in the car ourselves. Child seats use the factory seatbelts, but their actual harnesses have no sensors on them--full, empty, makes no difference to the clicked factory belt.

But a child-in-seat weight is not the same--but think about the size difference of children. From 6lbs to 40lbs, cheap-o-used seats to seats that are more luxiousous than my own bed, the weight can fluxuate dramatically. And, specifically, it would change throughout the child's life. So the parents would have to constantly update the weight calibration if they could even try to function with that weight difference.

Further, if I set things in the back, like a container of water, it would likely trigger the sensor, and I don't care if the water sits in my car overnight. I don't want to be reminded of it.

Or, maybe it'd just turn on Dog mode--but then the water is chilled at 80^ over night, draining my battery unnecessarily.

The issue is several layers;

1) How big of an issue is this?
Seat belts come to mind--people were dying all the time before they came out. People were dying specifically because they were operating their car.
2) How can a car company be expected to correct this?
Putting installed seat belts became mandatory, which is a reasonable assumption. People need to be safe when they drive a 2 tonn vehicle around.
3) How can you enforce people to follow whatever is installed?
Seatbelts were installed, but weren't used for years. People had to be indoctrinated into using it, ticketed, forced. Even if there was a feature to turn on/off in the car, if people never turn it on (like it keeps beeping at them when they just have an empty seat in the rear, which most parents leave when they don't have their kid), it's a waste.
4) How much of a responsibility does the car company have for it's passengers?
Cars should protect their passengers when they are moving the vehicle. That's why crumple zones, seat belts, and air bags exist. However, if you turn the car off in the middle of Death Valley during summer and try to take a nap in it--is it the car's responsibility to step up against your own stupidity?

It’s about a feature that gives parents peace of mind. And like dog mode it can be a setting so folks like you or I wouldn’t have deal with it. And since the sensor already has some ability to sense a child in a seat to disable airbags it is more about perfecting the logic then adding new hardware. If I had small children I’d tolerate the false notifications for the knowledge that I was driving the safest car in the world for children.

 

[KarenRei]

And as for: one-pedal vs. two-pedal driving... my personal preference would be one-pedal with a wide "neutral band" in the middle so that you don't have to delicately thread the balance between acceleration and regen.

 

[humbaba]

Fake noises of some kind will be required for BEVs by both the US and EU.

Porsche Taycan electric sports car hits 30,000 customer reservations

Porsche Claims Tesla Owners Are Leading A Taycan Sales Stampede | CleanTechnica

As long as I can select "Galloping Coconuts" its all good

[edited to add: to be specific, my dream is to have frequency vary with velocity and volume with power draw. No, I wouldn't actually want it on all the time. Think of it more as an emissions testing app. C'mon, Elon, add it as an easter egg!]

 

[KarenRei]

As long as I can select "Galloping Coconuts" its all good

I still vote for "fake extra tire noise":

• People who are not crossing roads / parking lots tune tire noise out already
• People who are crossing roads / parking lots already listen for tire noise.
• It's a non-grating and universally-recognized sound that says "a car is coming".

I still hope however that it gets to the point where manufacturers are allowed to tie sounds to pedestrian detections (silent otherwise), and optimally to use directional sound.

 

[humbaba]

1)Taycan is meant to go after Model S not Model 3. ~25k high margin cars per year.
ID.3 and Crozz are targeting markets just below Model 3 and Model Y.

2) I highly doubt this is successful. There is LG Chem and SKI building gigafactories not only in Europe but the USA. The DOJ could go after Tesla after it was a monopoly. Not before. There is really nothing to worry about hear in the present.

3) There is not only VW looking at their own gigafactory but NorthVolt, Samsung SDI, LG Chem, and SKI building in Europe. Not to mention CATL,BYD and other Chinese companies that are building ferociously.


Then again we will here about 2 terrawatts/year on battery investor day. That may make the rest of the worlds battery efforts pale in comparison to Tesla. Somewhere along the line here Tesla will be able to afford more than a few lobbyist and have the ear of more than a handful of Senators.

well, the relative output was rather the point. If Tesla is manufacturing 2 terrawatts/year (isn't that terrawatt-hours?) and represents 95% of the world's output that is rather a defacto monopoly.

To be clear, I'm hoping that others make real efforts. But I'm also doubtful given past history. Of course, Tesla's gigafactory still isn't up to the original goals which seem to be more aspirational than anything. So it may not be that bad of a discrepancy. But what I don't want is for Tesla to have a defacto monopoly in EVs and battery storage. It isn't good for the mission and it isn't even good for Tesla as it gives more legal ammunition to its detractors.

I think the best news in this regard is a report[1] (already mentioned in this thread) that argues that renewables give the highest return for investment money. That's the kind of argumentation that pushes things in the right direction.

1) https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/api/files/1094E5B9-2FAA-47A3-805D-EF65EAD09A7F

 

[jerry33]

I still hope however that it gets to the point where manufacturers are allowed to tie sounds to pedestrian detections (silent otherwise), and optimally to use directional sound.

It's been my experience that unless the noise level is similar to a train, pedestrians don't notice it. That said, in eighteen years of so called "silent car" driving, I can count on one hand the number of times pedestrians were in the path. And what about the many ICE vehicles that are just as silent?

 

[humbaba]

I still vote for "fake extra tire noise":

• People who are not crossing roads / parking lots tune tire noise out already
• People who are crossing roads / parking lots already listen for tire noise.
• It's a non-grating and universally-recognized sound that says "a car is coming".

I still hope however that it gets to the point where manufacturers are allowed to tie sounds to pedestrian detections (silent otherwise), and optimally to use directional sound.

and I hope people come to their senses and simply avoid this anti-EV nonsense. When I was a wee lad I had an encounter with a silent car and it was gasoline powered. Very creepy and a bit scary, but somehow I lived. It wasn't a real problem then and it isn't a real problem now.

 

[Christine69420]

I still vote for "fake extra tire noise":

• People who are not crossing roads / parking lots tune tire noise out already
• People who are crossing roads / parking lots already listen for tire noise.
• It's a non-grating and universally-recognized sound that says "a car is coming".

I still hope however that it gets to the point where manufacturers are allowed to tie sounds to pedestrian detections (silent otherwise), and optimally to use directional sound.

I vote for no extra sound.

Or if it cannot be avoided it should be for all cars. Hybrids, petrol or diesel. My old petrol car was pretty much silent running at low speeds.

But please - no sound. I'm fed up with waking up earlier than I have to because some neighbour starts her car. I'm dreaming of a silent society of EVs and electric lawn movers.

 

[Tslynk67]

Looks like Model 3 SR+ cars are beeing delivered to Norwegian customers today.

On todays list on Tesla Registration Stats there are some cars without LR or P designations.

When I click on registration details for these ie. EV 84828 I find it has only one driveshaft.

Also see some Model X designated as "P", so they must be Ravens.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

It is the parent's responsibility to remember. Yes, it's terrible that they forget as often as they do, but it's not the car's fault nor should they be expected to correct it.

Think about what such a feature would entail. A weight sensor? Oh, but those are usually disabled when a seatbelt is properly clicked, since otherwise we'd all go insane with beeps as we sit in the car ourselves. Child seats use the factory seatbelts, but their actual harnesses have no sensors on them--full, empty, makes no difference to the clicked factory belt.

But a child-in-seat weight is not the same--but think about the size difference of children. From 6lbs to 40lbs, cheap-o-used seats to seats that are more luxiousous than my own bed, the weight can fluxuate dramatically. And, specifically, it would change throughout the child's life. So the parents would have to constantly update the weight calibration if they could even try to function with that weight difference.

Further, if I set things in the back, like a container of water, it would likely trigger the sensor, and I don't care if the water sits in my car overnight. I don't want to be reminded of it.

Or, maybe it'd just turn on Dog mode--but then the water is chilled at 80^ over night, draining my battery unnecessarily.

The issue is several layers;

1) How big of an issue is this?
Seat belts come to mind--people were dying all the time before they came out. People were dying specifically because they were operating their car.
2) How can a car company be expected to correct this?
Putting installed seat belts became mandatory, which is a reasonable assumption. People need to be safe when they drive a 2 tonn vehicle around.
3) How can you enforce people to follow whatever is installed?
Seatbelts were installed, but weren't used for years. People had to be indoctrinated into using it, ticketed, forced. Even if there was a feature to turn on/off in the car, if people never turn it on (like it keeps beeping at them when they just have an empty seat in the rear, which most parents leave when they don't have their kid), it's a waste.
4) How much of a responsibility does the car company have for it's passengers?
Cars should protect their passengers when they are moving the vehicle. That's why crumple zones, seat belts, and air bags exist. However, if you turn the car off in the middle of Death Valley during summer and try to take a nap in it--is it the car's responsibility to step up against your own stupidity?

This could be as simple as a selectable “car seat mode” option on the safety menu. If after driving, the drivers door opens and the driver seat senses no weight, and there is weight in the backseat, and neither rear door opens, then send a reminder via Tesla app saying “check backseat for child”. Leave a/c on until message is acknowledged.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Why would you turn it off?

I’ve found it cuts down vampire drain significantly - even if it would never trigger the cooling system. I shut it off when I park at the airport (parking garage).

 

[Tslynk67]

I would consider buying one for my wife’s around town daily routine if the price was closer or below the Model 3.

Yes, as a second car, for chores or school-run, I think it's fine - same with the eTron. A rather expensive second car, mind.