Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

So how does Tesla Stock win in 2020?

Shortzes won't give up anytime soon:

• some are making big $$ (plain ol' greed)
  
• some are idealogues (c.f. 'zealot')
  
• some are fearful/entrenched (c.f. Uncle Jack)

2020 is an artificial timeline. Let's expand that timeframe to include these possibilities:

• S&P listing: (yes I know, the 3rd rail around here, but there are 2 points to make)
  • Tesla buys Panasonic's N.American operations to become GAAP profitable
    • Tesla gets a 1-yr boost in GAAP profits by declaring GF1 income w/o exps
  • Tesla buys an jr. Insurance Co. that is already part of the S&P1500;
    • combined entity is promoted to S&P 500 by Committee based on Mkt Cap
  • these 2 scenarios are most likely for 2020 (though not assured) imho
  
  
• Tesla issues Digital Shares: (ala @Hock1 to force a buyback of TSLA) (2020?)
  • @Hock1 tells us Overstock.com Inc (OSTK) is issuing a share-for-share distribution of a digital security to all OSTK shareholders
  • we need more details of this scenario, conduct and procedure
    
  • this issue seems to be having a large effect on OSTK SP
  • Up'n'Down +/- 25% over the past week: Paging @Hock1
  • Have Market Makers scoped out this move and countered? What's going on? Anybody?
  
  
  
  
  
  
• Tesla could start a share buy-back program: (2022?)
  • yes I know it's incompatible with growth, but so is:
    • bankwupcy (low Mooney's Rating, ^^^ cost to borrow)
      
    • wild swings in TSLA (Tesla misses out during Capital Raises)
      
    • FUD attacks Demand (effective once they're no longer production constrained)
  • some smallish portion of capital below that threshold of Max. Growth could be used to stabilize shareholder equity (could even return some capital if future raises occur at higher SP)
  • this fund would be targeting the 'swings' and huge 'icicles' common in short trading
    • in effect, swing trade their own stock, soaking up short shares while stabilizing drops
    • cuts off the oxygen to shortzes; eats their lunch; spanks dey bottoms.
    • a billion could do wonders; esp. if trading with Tesla AI software
  • this stability INCREASES shareholder confidence and widens the pool of investors (ie: S&P)
  • my point is to strike some balance between max. growth and robust health of the business
  
  
• TSLA moves to/cross-listed on Long-Term Stock Exchange - LTSE (202?)
  • depending on exact rules and policies of this nascent exchange, TSLA might be more suitable
  • not clear at all the Market Makers won't follow TSLA to LTSE to continue their mischief
  • my least-favorite scenario, seems unlikely to address underlying challenges facing Tesla/TSLA

So that's my short list of how to win in 2020+. I think we should speculate next as to the content of Master Plan - Part Trois (expected in 2020Q1). It's more than just batteries (hint: it's the machine that builds the machine). What do you think?

Cheers!

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Regardless, even the misconstrued statement is still true. Coasting is more efficient than regen. Just sum up all your energy losses in the system. When coasting, aero drag, drivetrain frictional losses, and tire rolling resistance are your only losses. While in regen, you have all of those things plus the conversion losses of converting magnetic flux back into electric current and then storing it into the battery.

Consider a Tesla on a 6% downhill grade. Notionally with full regen it holds 50 mph, and regen sends 50kw back to the battery. The alternative is to coast and let the car accelerate to 100 mph with 0kw regen. If the hill is short, the coasting car has an energy advantage because of regen inefficiency. If the hill is long enough, the regen car has an energy advantage (kinetic & battery).

To say coasting is always better than regen is wrong. No one is arguing that random accel decel is efficient.

Porsche to potential Taycan drivers: “You’re too dumb or stubborn to learn 1-pedal driving. And even if you’re not, you shouldn’t care because you don’t understand physics anyway.”

 

[Stephen zz]

The amount of epic free ads Tesla gets is crazy on YouTube. It's the totalll opposite of the fud. Amazing the difference. This video is trending on YT rn (someone probably posted already):

That really moved me. A wonderful uplifting message. My son is of a similar age and it connected. None of the negative Fud doing the rounds.

As for the Tesla how do ICE manufacturers compete with emotional aspirational messages like that

Because you are worth it.

 

[kengchang]

Babycharts : Tesla can't sell car without backlog

Tesla Q2 19 : 90% orders are from non reservations

 

[SOULPEDL]

Shortzes won't give up anytime soon:

• some are making big $$ (plain ol' greed)
  
• some are idealogues (c.f. 'zealot')
  
• some are fearful/entrenched (c.f. Uncle Jack)

2020 is an artificial timeline. Let's expand that timeframe to include these possibilities:

• S&P listing: (yes I know, the 3rd rail around here, but there are 2 points to make)
  • Tesla buys Panasonic's N.American operations to become GAAP profitable
    • Tesla gets a 1-yr boost in GAAP profits by declaring GF1 income w/o exps
  • Tesla buys an jr. Insurance Co. that is already part of the S&P1500;
    • combined entity is promoted to S&P 500 by Committee based on Mkt Cap
  • these 2 scenarios are most likely for 2020 (though not assured) imho
  
  
• Tesla issues Digital Shares: (ala @Hock1 to force a buyback of TSLA) (2020?)
  • @Hock1 tells us Overstock.com Inc (OSTK) is issuing a share-for-share distribution of a digital security to all OSTK shareholders
  • we need more details of this scenario, conduct and procedure
    
  • this issue seems to be having a large effect on OSTK SP
  • Up'n'Down +/- 25% over the past week: Paging @Hock1
  • Have Market Makers scoped out this move and countered? What's going on? Anybody?
  
  View attachment 441609
  
  
• Tesla could start a share buy-back program: (2022?)
  • yes I know it's incompatible with growth, but so is:
    • bankwupcy (low Mooney's Rating, ^^^ cost to borrow)
      
    • wild swings in TSLA (Tesla misses out during Capital Raises)
      
    • FUD attacks Demand (effective once they're no longer production constrained)
  • some smallish portion of capital below that threshold of Max. Growth could be used to stabilize shareholder equity (could even return some capital if future raises occur at higher SP)
  • this fund would be targeting the 'swings' and huge 'icicles' common in short trading
    • in effect, swing trade their own stock, soaking up short shares while stabilizing drops
    • cuts off the oxygen to shortzes; eats their lunch; spanks dey bottoms.
    • a billion could do wonders; esp. if trading with Tesla AI software
  • this stability INCREASES shareholder confidence and widens the pool of investors (ie: S&P)
  • my point is to strike some balance between max. growth and robust health of the business
  
  
• TSLA moves to/cross-listed on Long-Term Stock Exchange - LTSE (202?)
  • depending on exact rules and policies of this nascent exchange, TSLA might be more suitable
  • not clear at all the Market Makers won't follow TSLA to LTSE to continue their mischief
  • my least-favorite scenario, seems unlikely to address underlying challenges facing Tesla/TSLA

So that's my short list of how to win in 2020+. I think we should speculate next as to the content of Master Plan - Part Trois (expected in 2020Q1). It's more than just batteries (hint: it's the machine that builds the machine). What do you think?

Cheers!

I didn't know about a Master Plan III. OK, I'm game. (Good info there by the way.)

The machine that builds the machine has been so quiet. I was just talking about that last week along with "the robots will be a blur" which happened or didn't? Are they blurring fast yet?

I just assumed that the machine->machine vision was on hold because of the recognized need for some humans in the factory. But the new cable modular assemblies (and Tesla patent apps) might be the missing piece. I'm assuming that the cable problem was affecting his mach->mach vision as well. Those machines would need cables too. So when he solves it for the car line (maybe Model Y) then we could see this vision take shape.

Soooo off topic... Sometimes I think Elon is from the future (which may stem from a desire to save humanity b/c we can't save ourselves). However, I also don't think contact is possible through time. IMO, in the future we will be able to see in the past. Today's UFOs are that "camera." Their supersonic accelerations that some witness in the skies are merely a time traveller approaching and leaving our moment in time (maybe even a Historian). The actual movement was normal relative to their time, but it appears to us as though our "tape head" was on REW, PLAY, then FFW. (OK, that's likely not in his Master Plan III).

OK, now I can sleep... 2020 it is.

 

[schonelucht]

Speaking of trolls and conspiracy theories, I have a theory of my own .

Last I checked, doxxing was still against the rules of this website.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Tesla issues Digital Shares: (ala @Hock1 to force a buyback of TSLA) (2020?)

• @Hock1 tells us Overstock.com Inc (OSTK) is issuing a share-for-share distribution of a digital security to all OSTK shareholders
• we need more details of this scenario, conduct and procedure
  
• this issue seems to be having a large effect on OSTK SP
• Up'n'Down +/- 25% over the past week: Paging @Hock1
• Have Market Makers scoped out this move and countered? What's going on? Anybody?

I ran across this story. Seems their CEO is "nutty." Overstock CEO spins an insane Russian-spy drama, with himself as the star

 

[Artful Dodger]

M3P is also induction + PM, just in the reverse config. It does just fine on the track.

Do you have any evidence of anyone actually being throttled on a Raven?

Bjorn experienced roll-back with his M3P on the autobahn whenever he used hard acceleration or attempted to cruise faster than about 200-210 kph. He posted the vid more than a month ago (let me know if you can find it).

So MP3 power output is affected by heat soaking. He'd have to repeat the test in a LR RWD Model 3 to see if the behavior is better w/o the AC front motor. Also, he should use that 3rd party app that displays bty temp and motor temps. A few graphs would be instructive.

AFAIK, nobody has published a Bjorn-style review of Raven driven hard on the Autobahn. Until that is available, the simplest presumption is that the front motor will be better (new-style SRPM) and the rear motor will be the same (since it is the same).

The Raven battery pack, Mod.E is another unknown, but really needs an @Ingineer or Jack Rickard style teardown to see whats new. In the mean time, a back to back test might be revealing, but there doesn't seem to be any industry/media groups serious about finding out the details.

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

How are the shorts "out of the game"? (FYI, I hate my side of the debate by the way... I really do believe truth prevails eventually, but sometimes too late).

• Do analysts get their soul back? Nope, souls go for about $5/lbs so I just read.
• Lack of money to short - obviously not.
• Lack of stocks to short (maybe that's where we're at now?)

No, I think it happens when congress gets more honest about the environment, and if they don't, they lose their seats. So 2020 could be an interesting year.

I think Tesla is synonymous with this oil battle, and many will stretch-buy the product because of this connection. Unfortunately, all the Dem's talk about is healthcare (more like health-scare with a drug market). Speaking of greedy Pharma, same freak'n problem right? So why should I believe TSLA would prevail when drug prices and the AMA are still so corrupt after decades?

I'm drawing a line connecting Medical, Energy, Education, Guns, Environment... None of these money-bought problems have really been addressed. So how does Tesla Stock win in 2020?

(Geeze, where did I wake up this morning, right?)

Yes, of course there will still be shorts (unless the rules get changed or Tesla shift to an exchange that outlaws it), but my point being that of Tesla are shifting several million cars per year at 20-30% margins, along with a whole host of other products, then the SP will rise, and rise very high, shorting as a strategy to hold Tesla back will no longer be worth it - might still be profitable for a traditional short trade though.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Consider a Tesla on a 6% downhill grade. Notionally with full regen it holds 50 mph, and regen sends 50kw back to the battery. The alternative is to coast and let the car accelerate to 100 mph with 0kw regen. If the hill is short, the coasting car has an energy advantage because of regen inefficiency. If the hill is long enough, the regen car has an energy advantage (kinetic & battery).

To say coasting is always better than regen is wrong. No one is arguing that random accel decel is efficient.

Porsche to potential Taycan drivers: “You’re too dumb or stubborn to learn 1-pedal driving. And even if you’re not, you shouldn’t care because you don’t understand physics anyway.”

Congrats, you've constrained the scenario sufficiently to make your point. Never mind that the choices should be regen versus friction brakes in that scenario. But sure, on a long decline, with no follow-up incline nor any further stretch of road to follow, regen would be better than coasting.

 

[Tslynk67]

Few, very few, but the "halo effect" is a thing. Still won't sway most buyers, and let's be realistic, will sway almost nobody who was already looking seriously at a Tesla.

But if Porsche manages to set the goal posts just right, and market the results just right, then it will shift a small number of potential EV buyers from Tesla to Porsche. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, if Porsche dealers do a good job of selling the Taycan to these people who come in to look at them, but what are the chances of that? It might end up dissuading some from EVs altogether if their perception is that Porsche is better than Tesla but then Porsche dealers make the buying / test driving experience difficult and/or the car just isn't a good enough experience (where possibly, a Tesla would have been)...

I sincerely hope that the Taycan is a great car, I hope it becomes their top-seller and I've no problem with them stealing some Tesla sales - the market is huge.

If auto-makers think by putting out half-assed BEV's the public will loose interest, then they really are on a road to nowhere. The vast majority of people who drive a Tesla, want one, the only barrier being cost for many. Added to that, ICE are being legislated against in many territories, certainly in Europe, with total bans coming in for many cities in the not-too-distant future.

So I've I've really no idea what they're thinking of.

 

[KarenRei]

Bjorn experienced roll-back with his M3P on the autobahn whenever he used hard acceleration or attempted to cruise faster than about 200-210 kph. He posted the vid more than a month ago (let me know if you can find it).

Is this what you're talking about? Seems to be opposite of what you're saying.

I've seen some reports of minor power loss over time on the track, similar to what you get with many gasoline sports cars, but nothing you'd call "overheating", nothing like the hard throttling of the old S and X.

AFAIK, nobody has published a Bjorn-style review of Raven driven hard on the Autobahn. Until that is available, the simplest presumption is that the front motor will be better (new-style SRPM) and the rear motor will be the same (since it is the same).

The assumption should be that it's like the 3, since it has the same motor mix as the 3 now (just reversed).

The PM/Induction mix prioritizes using the PM, up to the limits of A) traction, and B) meeting throttle requests. Even on the track, (B) is not a constant 100%. And when you're pack-power-limited, it's the PM that remains at near-100% power, not the induction motor.

 

[Tslynk67]

That's big ol' pile'o'puts expiring worthless this Friday. Is that you, Mark?

 

[Tslynk67]

Is this what you're talking about? Seems to be opposite of what you're saying.

I've seen some reports of minor power loss over time on the track, similar to what you get with many gasoline sports cars, but nothing you'd call "overheating", nothing like the hard throttling of the old S and X.



The assumption should be that it's like the 3, since it has the same motor mix as the 3 now (just reversed).

The PM/Induction mix prioritizes using the PM, up to the limits of A) traction, and B) meeting throttle requests.

I've driven my MX on autobahn at 180-220 kmph for 30 minutes without any noticeable power loss. For sure it gets hot and when you stop, sounds like it's about to take-off, but I've never experienced any "throttling" of power - maybe it was there, but I didn't notice.

In the real world, I think it's pretty irrelevant, no?

 

[Artful Dodger]

The alternative is to coast and let the car accelerate to 100 mph with 0kw regen. If the hill is short, the coasting car has an energy advantage because of regen inefficiency.

Yeah, only until loses from the increased wind drag (v^2) overcome the inefficiency of regen (perhaps 65% energy recovered?). Anyway, I blame Bjorn for not posting the answer. (Sheeieet)

 

[KSilver2000]

In the real world, I think it's pretty irrelevant, no?

For 99% of the people, in the real world, it’s also irrelevant that a car can do sub 2.4s 0-60 or an SUV can do 0-60 sprint in 3s. How often in the real world of daily driving are you going to be at the front of a red light, put the car into launch control mode, and gun it to 60mph when many roads have a speed limit of around half that...
But, that doesn’t stop car makers from boasting about their 0-60 times.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yes, of course there will still be shorts (unless the rules get changed or Tesla shift to an exchange that outlaws it), but my point being that of Tesla are shifting several million cars per year at 20-30% margins, along with a whole host of other products, then the SP will rise, and rise very high, shorting as a strategy to hold Tesla back will no longer be worth it - might still be profitable for a traditional short trade though.

Well, that handles 1 of the 3 types of shortzes that I identified in my comment, the ones motivated by simple greed. Of course they'll go away once they stop making money.

Doesn't really address how to handle the other 2 types of shortzes: the 'zealots' (evidence-proof faithful, hopefully a small minority) and the 'fearful/entrenched'.

These are the hard-core in-it-to-win-it long term shortzes. These are your ICEmakers, your Big Oil'ers, your Petro-States (Russia, OPEC, etc), big Coal (waning now) big Gas (still ascendant in the USA) AND the industries that depend upon them (ie: Congress).

We know they play dirty (that's their actual PRODUCT, ffs). We know they own the Media (ugh). We know they are willing to break the law (or just rewrite it: c.f. EPA vs CAFE Stds). They repeatedly abuse authority to stifle Tesla (c.f. SEC and their hired henchmen).

What they don't know is what Tesla will do next. But we do, right? Or at least we can make an informed guess (Part Trois). You wanna go first?

Does this help?

Cheers!

 

[lascavarian]

Because I can't believe a porsche is for coasting instead of accelerating/decelerating

Porsche has possibly reasoned that regen can be sacrificed in the battle of thermal management. No regen means a cooler motor. Heat goes to brake pads instead where heat removal is traditional tech so no need for innovation.

This is a double win in the sense that they get more bragging rights for bigger brakes/stopping power and they get more $ervice revenue replacing pads. This may be ok for their customer base while they try to figure out regen efficiency and catch up on thermal management. Smart buyer would probably skip this early compromised effort IMO.

 

[Todd Burch]

For 99% of the people, in the real world, it’s also irrelevant that a car can do sub 2.4s 0-60 or an SUV can do 0-60 sprint in 3s. How often in the real world of daily driving are you going to be at the front of a red light, put the car into launch control mode, and gun it to 60mph when many roads have a speed limit of around half that...
But, that doesn’t stop car makers from boasting about their 0-60 times.

Almost every day. Except without the launch mode, and maybe not flooring it entirely to save a bit in the tires.

Instant hard acceleration is far more useful. Not only for fun launches, but also to pass cars more safely on two lane roads, accelerate up to speed on highway entrance ramps (especially the short ones), etc.

 

[mongo]

That's big ol' pile'o'puts expiring worthless this Friday. Is that you, Mark?

View attachment 441623

Buying puts helps margin accounts because it sets a floor on losses. Insurance if you will.
SP:180, no puts: $180 at risk.
SP:180, strike $50 puts: $130 at risk.
Helps a lot when at margin limits for whatever reason (SP drop, requirement increase),current $1 per full contract. Nov 15th $28 per contract for $5,000 of breathing room.