Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

But, why would you even want to roll soon ? I'm planning to sell all my 2/15 (5%) and 3/15 (95%) calls within days after ER and then wait for the inevitable dip to "roll".

After Q3 I got sucked into thinking there is actually a "squeeze" possibility that I didn't want to miss out on - so invested some of my profits from the sale of Q3 calls on stock + Leaps + 3/15 calls (at "low" SP of 353)

There was a squeeze after the Q3 ER. Short interest dropped a lot.

The issue is that one can't know when the market has fully digested the implications of the ER. Hence the reason I want (like you) to retain meaningful leverage for the first few days, but then roll (reducing but not eliminating leverage) to more distant expiries. Whenever I feel confident that the news is fully digested I'll further deleverage. I don't want to be highly leveraged for more than a few days, however.

 

[ZachF]

The Chinese market will be so much larger than Germany that it wouldn’t matter. The Model S is already the best selling flagship Model in Europe, beating the Mercedes S550 & BMW 7 series. I expect the Model 3 to be a best seller in Europe whether Germany thrashes the car or not.

Americans here will trash Germany for the emissions defeat devices for decades.

I've said this before, but the American + Chinese market is about half of the world's auto sales. German market is about 1/5th the size of the US market

29m China
17m USA

3.8m Germany

 

[AlMc]

Elon is obviously in a good mood.
Positive sign.

View attachment 372359

I am happy that EM is enjoying himself/relaxing a bit. However, NEVER try to correlate his mood to ST Tesla/TSLA movements, especially near an ER.

 

[EVNow]

There was a squeeze after the Q3 ER. Short interest dropped a lot..

I mean - VW kind of squeeze.

The issue is that one can't know when the market has fully digested the implications of the ER. Hence the reason I want (like you) to retain meaningful leverage for the first few days, but then roll (reducing but not eliminating leverage) to more distant expiries. Whenever I feel confident that the news is fully digested I'll further deleverage. I don't want to be highly leveraged for more than a few days, however.

Oh yes - No point selling on 31st. Historically it has taken 1 to 4 days to reach max/min (except Q3). I'm just not sure about the roll anymore - I'm just going to keep cash (or put it in S&P) and wait for the dip. Ofcourse we won't know what the floor of the dip is. I thought 353 was the dip last time - turned out to be the ceiling.

 

[EVNow]

I am happy that EM is enjoying himself/relaxing a bit. However, NEVER try to correlate his mood to ST Tesla/TSLA movements, especially near an ER.

I don't care about the mood now - just want him to be relaxed, happy and confident during the call. There are going to be some awkward questions about S&X. Also hopefully he has some bullish net new news on the call to offset S&X reduction talk.

 

[Thekiwi]

I've said this before, but the American + Chinese market is about half of the world's auto sales. German market is about 1/5th the size of the US market

29m China
17m USA

3.8m Germany

Would love to see the price distribution of those Chinese sales. Eg how many over $30k USD?

 

[dennis]

Saw this today while flying through Schiphol-
View attachment 372306
Definitely Y sized, with a conventional interior, complete with center console and a transmission shifter. I guess it will appeal to a traditionalist or current Audi owner for whom the minimalist interior of a 3/Y might be too different. Or maybe to those who have something against frunks. Regardless of the charging rate, Y for me, please.

And here is how the e-tron 55 compares to its closest Audi stablement, the SQ5:
tl;dr - etron is slower and almost $16,000 more expensive.

 

[AcesDealt]

I'm fairly certain that profitability suffers by eliminating the two-tiers of S/X models, so my assumption is that this will return in some form or another. However, I'm wondering if perhaps the pause here is to draw down the used inventory. If I had been in the market for one of those models, my 2nd choice would be to go for a lightly used version, and only then my distant 3rd would be one of the other products they have.

 

[Foghat]

Elon just “booked” an internet show on the biggest channel with over 82 million YouTube subscribers It’s seeming very popular decision on social media right now.

His twitter is such a love hate relationship, but is looking to be really a significant net marketing/recruiting asset when he does it right.

When he’s on, there is no better CEO at marketing the “brand.”

And to those that think marketing to the younger demos don’t turn into sales of s/x/3, I’ve observed the parents getting harassed by their children into learning about Tesla and eventually buying. This goes without saying, but those young kids eventually grow up to buy their dream Tesla products.

 

[ggies07]

Now you made me watch it... It's OK for me at 1.5x speed and subtitles, others might be able to go up to 2.0x

Link again:

One thing I don't understand is he kept saying that there is no chemical reaction going on, just a state of charge. But then we have Jeff Dahn in this speech telling and showing us they do. That's why the battery range degrades over time, there is a film that is produced.....What am I missing? Is Jack wrong?

 

[tinm]

What YouTube show is this? Link?

Elon just “booked” an internet show on the biggest channel with over 82 million YouTube subscribers It’s seeming very popular decision on social media right now.

His twitter is such a love hate relationship, but is looking to be really a significant net marketing/recruiting asset when he does it right.

When he’s on, there is no better CEO at marketing the “brand.”

And to those that think marketing to the younger demos don’t turn into sales of s/x/3, I’ve observed the parents getting harassed by their children into learning about Tesla and eventually buying. This goes without saying, but those young kids eventually grow up to buy their dream Tesla products.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

What YouTube show is this? Link?

ƿ૯ωძɿ૯ƿɿ૯ on Twitter

 

[AlMc]

ƿ૯ωძɿ૯ƿɿ૯ on Twitter

My daughter's world (pewdepie??) and mine (Tesla) have just collided. I will say this has her friends (late teens/early twenties) excited.

Is this a good thing?

 

[ggies07]

So this nerd just bought a Model 3 cell to have to show people....

EVTV Motor Verks Store:

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Elon Musk on Twitter

This is good, right? Elon usually trolls on Twitter when the financial results are going to be blowouts...

 

[hacer]

A question to @ReflexFunds, @luvb2b and other modeling experts, I was reading through Elon's Q4 announcement email again, and noticed the following:

"In Q3 last year, we were able to make a 4% profit. While small by most standards, I would still consider this our first meaningful profit in the 15 years since we created Tesla."​

I don't see where the 4% figure comes from:

• Q3 GAAP profit was $311.5m, on $6,824.4m of revenue, which is 4.64% profit. All the other, non-GAAP profit metrics are much larger percentages.
• Using EPS would be sloppy as the stock price wasn't constant - but if we use the ~$350 stock price when he wrote the email and the lowest EPS figure ($1.75 GAAP EPS per diluted share), then we get a return of 5.0%.

Any ideas? Did he just round down the 4.64% to 4%?

Perhaps he was referring to the automotive segment only.

My previous message seemed to get chopped off when TMC crashed just as I posted.

 

[lascavarian]

One thing I don't understand is he kept saying that there is no chemical reaction going on, just a state of charge

My read is jack is mostly right. Seems to be a storage and movement of cations vs a lead acid battery type reaction involving molecular bonding.

Really good info and better/deeper than Munro but way long.

 

[anthonyj]

Elon Musk on Twitter

This is good, right? Elon usually trolls on Twitter when the financial results are going to be blowouts...

Yes. Backing up truck tomorrow if we dip

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

One thing I don't understand is he kept saying that there is no chemical reaction going on, just a state of charge. But then we have Jeff Dahn in this speech telling and showing us they do. That's why the battery range degrades over time, there is a film that is produced.....What am I missing? Is Jack wrong?

View attachment 372434

I believe the chemical reactions Jeff mentions are separate from the normal charging/discharging.

 

[sdtslafan]

Yes. Backing up truck tomorrow if we dip

What? Maybe I'm missing something but don't we know with high confidence it is not a blowout based on Elon's letter?

Are we hoping that the initial calculations were a mistake?

I'm not saying TSLA won't rise from here, its ridiculously low, but just trying to understand better what you're getting at..