RobStark
Well-Known Member
Maybe that is why Tesla is only making short range 3/Y in China?
They can use more cells with less than the best chemistry and still achieve 220+ miles of range.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Maybe that is why Tesla is only making short range 3/Y in China?
They can use more cells with less than the best chemistry and still achieve 220+ miles of range.
anthonyj
Stonks
Elon’s letter to employees on the last day of Q3 was downbeat as well. He said that they have to work extra hard in order to show a profit... they def didn’t make that 311m profit on that last day. He’s setting expectations low because he knows that the stock moves on surprises. Cash flow will prob be huge
This ER/CC may give a great boost to TSLA but correlating EM tweets/mood with the direction of TSLA has rarely proven accurate.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I would rate this informative if you told us what Youtube channel it is.
Elon Musk on Twitter
Some sort of 'meme' thing.........According to my daughter this is a big deal???
This guy is a big deal she tells me: I am too old to understand
. MrBeast (@MrBeastYT) | TwitterApparently reddit thinks this is legendary? -Effing kids, no idea what this is about..lol.
Elon Musk to host meme review? : PewdiepieSubmissions
Elon Musk to host meme review? : PewdiepieSubmissions
anthonyj
Stonks
Eh I think the price is fair right now and Tesla is growing rapidly. Competition is garbage and always will be. They just don’t get it.
Galileo Russell’s latest Hyperchange podcast before Q4 ER is a typically good mix of finance facts and educated speculation.
Two portions of the podcast speak to whether U.S. demand for high margin P3 decreased significantly in Q4 due to demand having been mostly satisfied in Q3.
Starting around 1:35 Russell says his model predicts there was 6.7 B revenue and 200 M in Gap Operating Income in Q4.
"The biggest reason for this pricing decline is even though they are increasing deliveries by 8%, I do believe
there was an even bigger decline in ASP mix, since you will remember that in Q3 Tesla put on a huge rush to
deliver these premium performance dual motor version of M3, that could be selling for as high as 70K a car,
and then in Q4 they were selling more of the LEMUR edition, that new medium range M3 battery pack that
starts at 46 grand.
So I think the average selling price went from 60 grand in Q3 to 50 or 52 grand in Q4. So that’s why even though
they increased deliveries they actually decreased revenue a bit."
Later in the podcast, starting at 10:05 Russell talks about the timing of international deliveries and begins saying “so Tesla now
has kind of exhausted U.S. demand (he means for the P3 I believe), the tax credit ends, they say they are focusing
on China and Europe deliveries….etc.
We’ll see how close to actual Russell's predictions are in a few days. But as was obvious after Q4 sales figures came out and Musk’s
letter on reducing staff 7% was released, demand for P3 declined significantly, having been largely satisfied in Q3.
Those very high margin cars were replaced (and then some) by sales of 46K Mid Range M3 and AWD.
Actual demand, generating sales, ebbs and flows month to month. Some new U.S. customers will decide they want and can afford a higher priced P3 and will buy one this quarter and all subsequent quarters. International deliveries will include many P3s and will boost revenue in Q1 and the following quarters this year. Until pent up Euro and China demand for P3 is satisfied. This is why Tesla’s current imperative is to cut costs, increase production efficiencies, etc., so the 35K base M3 can finally be offered to a much larger pool of pent up demand (at acceptable margins) for lower cost, great EVs.
As more and more M3 are delivered, with good customer service, steady state demand for M3 and then MY, etc. will enter the steeper part of S curve.
Two portions of the podcast speak to whether U.S. demand for high margin P3 decreased significantly in Q4 due to demand having been mostly satisfied in Q3.
Starting around 1:35 Russell says his model predicts there was 6.7 B revenue and 200 M in Gap Operating Income in Q4.
"The biggest reason for this pricing decline is even though they are increasing deliveries by 8%, I do believe
there was an even bigger decline in ASP mix, since you will remember that in Q3 Tesla put on a huge rush to
deliver these premium performance dual motor version of M3, that could be selling for as high as 70K a car,
and then in Q4 they were selling more of the LEMUR edition, that new medium range M3 battery pack that
starts at 46 grand.
So I think the average selling price went from 60 grand in Q3 to 50 or 52 grand in Q4. So that’s why even though
they increased deliveries they actually decreased revenue a bit."
Later in the podcast, starting at 10:05 Russell talks about the timing of international deliveries and begins saying “so Tesla now
has kind of exhausted U.S. demand (he means for the P3 I believe), the tax credit ends, they say they are focusing
on China and Europe deliveries….etc.
We’ll see how close to actual Russell's predictions are in a few days. But as was obvious after Q4 sales figures came out and Musk’s
letter on reducing staff 7% was released, demand for P3 declined significantly, having been largely satisfied in Q3.
Those very high margin cars were replaced (and then some) by sales of 46K Mid Range M3 and AWD.
Actual demand, generating sales, ebbs and flows month to month. Some new U.S. customers will decide they want and can afford a higher priced P3 and will buy one this quarter and all subsequent quarters. International deliveries will include many P3s and will boost revenue in Q1 and the following quarters this year. Until pent up Euro and China demand for P3 is satisfied. This is why Tesla’s current imperative is to cut costs, increase production efficiencies, etc., so the 35K base M3 can finally be offered to a much larger pool of pent up demand (at acceptable margins) for lower cost, great EVs.
As more and more M3 are delivered, with good customer service, steady state demand for M3 and then MY, etc. will enter the steeper part of S curve.
I think what is priced in is stagnant growth due to lack of demand. I mean Elon is sure doing a lot to paint that narrative...cutting staff, cutting production hours, taking away SKUs, and reducing all Skus by $2,000.
So I'm really hoping to see some kind of news on WHY the 75kwh version was taken away. It accounts for 55% of all Model S/X sales. I believe SP will explode if he announces a 400+ mile S/X coming soon. I'm not sure what will happen with the stock if he says retooling for Model Y. Shareholders want to see growth from a production standpoint, not shifting production around in a factory that's hitting max capacity.
We know it’s not a profit blowout. It could still be a revenue blowout, with lots of cash burn going towards growth.
I don't think Q4 results are going to be as important to the stock price as the 2019 guidance.
I suspect the answers to these questions will be the main drivers of stock price:
What is the status of these projects? Many were not even discussed in previous investor letters and SEC filings:
Where's the CapEx coming from? (Still no 8K saying how they're paying for the China factory)
How do you get out of the negative working capital hole?
With 7000 cars in inventory in the US, how does Tesla plan to manage its liquidity? How much of this inventory is against the ABL?
When's the 35k Model 3?
I suspect the answers to these questions will be the main drivers of stock price:
What is the status of these projects? Many were not even discussed in previous investor letters and SEC filings:
- Model Y
- Roadster
- Semi
- Solar Roof
- Pick-up Truck
- Service center expansion
Where's the CapEx coming from? (Still no 8K saying how they're paying for the China factory)
How do you get out of the negative working capital hole?
With 7000 cars in inventory in the US, how does Tesla plan to manage its liquidity? How much of this inventory is against the ABL?
When's the 35k Model 3?
anthonyj
Stonks
They removed the 75D to introduce a new version. Why does everyone think Tesla is axing it completely? Lol. That would literally be suicide
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Oh no - not that alt-right guy !
anthonyj
Stonks
Agreed. Parking lots full of old dusty Teslas.
. Tesla is going BK. They are ordering many Burger King Whoppers for all the poor shorts that are soon to be homeless. Very nice of them. Shorts love their BK
ZachF
Active Member
This is what I think will happen. It will serve multiple functions:
-Provide a cheaper, locally manufactured model
-protect battery IP from notoriously leaky chinese operations.
-Chinese market will probably be biased toward lower-price models because of lower income and lower automobile ASP.
It's usually not how Tesla introduce new versions. Usually they add a SKU and then subtract one later. Have they ever subtract a SKU and then add a new one later?
anthonyj
Stonks
Elon confirmed on Twitter that they are changing naming to Standard, Long Range, and Performance. It would be confusing to add those and keep the 75D. I’m thinking 100D (335mi) will become standard range, long range will be 420mi.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Biggest YouTuber of all times, 80m+ subscribers.
Demographics:
In a 2017 video, Kjellberg shared a screenshot of data provided by YouTube regarding his channel statistics, which suggested his largest demographic was among the 18-24 age group, followed by the 25-34 age group.
Demand for 10 more Gigafactories secured.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
