Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

They try so hard...

Seriously, didn't UBS just do this the other day? Twice in a row, really?

Their clients aren’t done covering/loading up

 

[jbcarioca]

This is regarding S&P inclusion. But does anyone know if p/e ratio is calculated with GAAP or non-GAAP EPS?

Nearly every source uses GAAP. I know of none that do not use GAAP, but they could exist. The whole point for almost all, if not all, of the sources of such calculations is to use a common reference without sponsor manipulation, thus they use GAAP.

 

[gora321]

They try so hard...

Seriously, didn't UBS just do this the other day? Twice in a row, really?

Yep, they must be very desperate.
And UBS for VW target: +42%
Daimler: +5%
BMW: +3,83%

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla ramps production as competitors flood market with electric cars. 'Pile-up of epic proportions'

Prepare for a pile up of epic proportions.

 

[gora321]

#Tesla registered 2,416 new #Model3 VINs. ~19% estimated to be dual motor. ~4% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 267939.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter

 

[ZachF]

Tesla ramps production as competitors flood market with electric cars. 'Pile-up of epic proportions'

Prepare for a pile up of epic proportions.

Still making the logical fallacy of segregating EV and ICE markets....

 

[KarenRei]

Still making the logical fallacy of segregating EV and ICE markets....

Also the fallacies of ignoring production volumes, manufacturer EV track records, and even - amazingly - EV demand and demand growth. A spectacularly terrible article.

 

[sweter]

Amazon sold books online, that's where I feel we are with the Model 3. It's hard to visualize a world where Tesla supplies a good chunk of residential energy and transport needs, but that's clearly where we're headed.

I think "grid services" will eventually flow to others and Tesla will focus on the consumers side(microgrids, solar aggregation, etc). That's where they'll be needed most and where the money will be.

Amazon owns retail, energy is a much bigger market.

Amazon might own retail but what's really important for them is their Amazon Web Services division. AWS owns the Internet.

Energy will be for Tesla what AWS is for Amazon.

But many still think Amazon is an online shopping company.

 

[shlokavica22]

Also the fallacies of ignoring production volumes, manufacturer EV track records, and even - amazingly - EV demand and demand growth. A spectacularly terrible article.

Well, in the good old days, one downgrade in a day would've done the job.

 

[Nocturnal]

Amazon might own retail but what's really important for them is their Amazon Web Services division. AWS owns the Internet.

Energy will be for Tesla what AWS is for Amazon.

But many still think Amazon is an online shopping company.

+1 I read a good article that referenced Bezos talking about his amazing 7 years of no competition to grow and develop competitive advantage for AWS and citing that as to why they became dominant. A certain EV maker also had 7 years without real competition.
The auto market is finite and eventually the other plays will have serious offerings. Energy storage and solar is an a whole new market with nearly unlimited potential. Particularly as the consensus around climate change continues to grow and the impacts start being felt. (and energy storage is profitable if you don't buy into the climate change science)

Tesla ramps production as competitors flood market with electric cars. 'Pile-up of epic proportions'

Prepare for a pile up of epic proportions.

Journalists and analysyts still don't get it. Ignoring the fact that these competitors aren't close to coming to market and are severely hamstrung due to lack of charging network, dealer buy-in etc., these new EVs are not likely to steal many sales from Tesla. They are likely going to cannibalize sales from ICE models. ​

 

[wipster]

Karen,

Do you ever sleep?

Just curious...

 

[KarenRei]

Karen,

Do you ever sleep?

Just curious...

No, I gave up my physical body long ago.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Is there some negative news going on right now? Fairly steep TSLA drop that's not seen in the macros. Or is this just a profit-taking blip?

Tesla is a slot machine. It could move +/- $20 either way tomorrow, depending on what news comes out.

 

[printf42]

My take away from the ER:

• Elon literally laughed at Waymo’s valuation.
• Now they are kind of projecting Tesla will stay profitable even if recession hits in 2019. 60% of 700k M3 demand fits nicely with production guidance(which Elon repeatedly said could end up much higher, if recession doesn’t hit I believe)
• China GF3 will have body stamping/painting by end of this year, if they can source cells locally, they might be eligible for gov EV subsidies, which in China will directly go to OEM to lower the cost/price, this will level the playing fields with local OEMs.
• Model Y shares 75% of parts with M3, and they will not try pull another f****n door with it.

Overall, very conservative and at the same time very bullish.

 

[wipster]

No, I gave up my physical body long ago.

I knew it!

ROFLMAO!!

 

[AndyH]

Cool video, even if in Chinese. Reddit was infected with an EV denier who insisted that Tesla only outperformed others due to it being cold and a short track. I think racing afficianados will continue disliking EVs -- primarily due to the lack of tweak ability. I watched a video a while back of some tuner getting owned by a Tesla and they talked afterward and the guy wasn't concerned about having his ass handed to him, he was just going to tweak and tune. The honest will just say what they are interested in is fiddling with a car, the others will make excuses about how it somehow doesn't count.

There's a Canadian comparison video between the Tesla M3 LR Dual and a BMW M2 Competition that was really good. BMW M2 Competition seems to be one of the best handling petrol cars you can buy. Nice how good the Tesla faired against it. A little stupid that they compare purchase price and not ownership costs. A Tesla M3 Performance would have been more logical comparison but you can't have everything.

 

[JRP3]

Listen to questions. Don’t remember who but question asked was where are batteries for China factory coming from. He answered that packs made there but then source of cells

I think you misinterpreted/misheard what was said:

Elon Musk

Well, there's really three things: the cell, the module and the pack. We will be making the module and the pack. So it's really just a question of cell supply. And we can essentially use any [high density] [ph] 2170 chemistry. And we expect to be a combination of cells produced at our Gigafactory in Nevada and cells produced in Japan and cells produced locally in China. And we feel confident to have a sufficient supply to hit the 3,000 units.

 

[T-Will]

Random thought after thinking about GF3, how does Tesla plan to prevent Chinese business espionage and stealing some of Tesla's proprietary methods?

 

[Driver Dave]

Tesla ramps production as competitors flood market with electric cars. 'Pile-up of epic proportions'

Prepare for a pile up of epic proportions.

This article is so Detroit wishful thinking.

The only pile up is going to be the old ICE manufactures being late to the party and behind and going bankrupt as Tesla stamps out amazing cars and prints money.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Journalists and analysyts still don't get it. Ignoring the fact that these competitors aren't close to coming to market and are severely hamstrung due to lack of charging network, dealer buy-in etc., these new EVs are not likely to steal many sales from Tesla. They are likely going to cannibalize sales from ICE models. ​

^^^
Precisely! I-Pace buyers are deciding between that and another Jag. E-Tron buyers are going to buy that instead of an A-6. All of which expands EV adoption without any impact on Tesla. That's my investment theory in TSLA as far as autos go.