Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

New leak from China:

First time I've seen the new building being referred to as "power train factory". Also, this leaks makes the distinction that this is a pack assembly factory, not a cell factory.

Second time I've seen "end of March" as the ETA for the new building. This means that GF1 will have to supply GF3 with battery packs during all of Q1 and probably a bit into Q2 as well.

Once the GF3 battery workshop is up and running, using LG Chem cells, the extra GF1 battery pack output can be used for other purposes, such as Model Y production.

 

[nativewolf]

I think the pentagon is likely to be the first client, even if just a 100 million pilot program. The DOD will want to know how encryption is handled on the chip and in memory. I think they’ll do better then a carrier solution and be NIST compliant. This is huge for all the branches. I wouldn’t be surprised if SpaceX and the military find a way to sneak a few hundred observation devices in with the regular devices.
The consumer market is easy and huge. For a global company though, this would be awesome. Providing a single network provider. Sell this as a backbone to Azure and companies like Zoom and Ring Central. This could be the AWS of networking. If Elon wanted to truly give some deep deep love to the shorts he’d combine Spacex and Tesla once starlink is up and monetized at 100 billion. He’d own ~40% of the combined companies and have insane cash flow. I’ve never thought a merger would happen and probably not going to happen, but SpaceX is going to be very valuable and I’d like to own some shares.

Indeed. Curious as to cross over impacts between telsa and spacex stock prices. Do they move in snyc?

 

[T@oo]

Indeed. Curious as to cross over impacts between telsa and spacex stock prices. Do they move in snyc?

There are SpaceX shares? Not that I know.

 

[PaulRocket]

Elon was spotted at the Kempinski Hotel in Berlin. I am living in Berlin currently. Would you call me crazy if I would sit in a cafe near the hotel and wait for him to come back?

 

[davepsilon]

Indeed. Curious as to cross over impacts between telsa and spacex stock prices. Do they move in snyc?

SpaceX is not a publically traded stock which leaves its price at any point in time a bit of a mystery.

 

[nativewolf]

Surprised that I haven't seen this posted yet - the new Bloomberg survey data is out:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Lots of great stuff in there.

Yes but that article headline is not good. Should be: Results from detailed survey of Model 3 Owners across the world.

 

[nativewolf]

SpaceX is not a publically traded stock which leaves its price at any point in time a bit of a mystery.

I had not even looked...well that's an interesting idea that's worthless...apologies all

 

[T@oo]

Elon was spotted at the Kempinski Hotel in Berlin. I am living in Berlin currently. Would you call me crazy if I would sit in a cafe near the hotel and wait for him to come back?

Sitting in a Cafe is perfectly normal in my book. Asking Elon to sign on the hood of my Model 3 on the other hand ...

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

If the video is raw and did not edit out the undesired parts, it sounds like MobileEye is on par or better than Tesla's autonomous driving?

It looks like at the 50 second mark that it turned directly into the path of the oncoming car. That part definitely seemed edited.

 

[nativewolf]

Sitting in a Cafe is perfectly normal in my book. Asking Elon to sign on the hood of my Model 3 on the other hand ...

Perfectly normal

 

[dc_h]

There are SpaceX shares? Not that I know.

SpaceX is privately traded. Accredited investors only and apparently it’s hard to buy at all anymore.

 

[LST]

Elon was spotted at the Kempinski Hotel in Berlin. I am living in Berlin currently. Would you call me crazy if I would sit in a cafe near the hotel and wait for him to come back?

Some Photos would be neat too ; )

 

[dc_h]

New leak from China:

View attachment 476037​

First time I've seen the new building being referred to as "power train factory". Also, this leaks makes the distinction that this is a pack assembly factory, not a cell factory.

Second time I've seen "end of March" as the ETA for the new building. This means that GF1 will have to supply GF3 with battery packs during all of Q1 and probably a bit into Q2 as well.

Once the GF3 battery workshop is up and running, using LG Chem cells, the extra GF1 battery pack output can be used for other purposes, such as Model Y production.

That explains why they want GF1 production up to 15,000 packs a week.

 

[Fact Checking]

That explains why they want GF1 production up to 15,000 packs a week.

Where does the 15k battery packs per week figure come from? The highest I've seen is 10k/week by the end of December.

 

[elasalle]

Darn ... Fund Manager says TSLA still expensive in a CNBC video Clip ... WTF was he doing past few months

 

[nativewolf]

That explains why they want GF1 production up to 15,000 packs a week.

Which would still cap world production at 780,000 cars? Thought they should exceed that next year but that's obviously a chokepoint.

1st car company to produce and sell a million EVs.

 

[hacer]

Is this a guess or do you have some information ?

I think there is very little to be gained by unwinding the hedge early and taking a risk of sudden changes to the market - either because of stock specific news or macro news (think of all those tweets). On Fridays, through out the day delta and the inventory of options will keep falling (for a given SP). This itself will result in MMs unwinding positions.

Making judgemental calls for hundreds of scrips every Friday with a continuously changing inventory & delta doesn't sound like a good process anyone would sign off. If there are people who can do it - they are better positioned in the investment groups where they can make a lot more money for the company.

There is academic research supporting it, Stock price clustering on option expiration dates - ScienceDirect among others.

Market making always involved risk. The things that you site are much more dangerous with options that have a lot of time left. News events can cause huge jumps in both the stock price and the implied volatility, either of which will instantly cause some gain or loss to a hedged position because delta only works for small price changes. So MMs are always making judgement calls on risk and reward. That is their job. They also have the capability to trade very fast, and have the fastest and best data sources available. So it is absolutely to their benefit to move the market favorably to themselves when they judge that they can do so. They have all the tools to do it profitably.

Also delta does not always fall, it can also rise depending on the option, strike, and stock price. As the stock price goes up call delta's rise while put delta's fall and vice versa.

It's true that option inventory shrinks on expiration day which causes MM unwinding but that action is just as likely to push the stock price away from the strike as pull towards it. Consider a barely out-of-the money call that a holder sells back to an MM who had sold it and has 99 shares long hedging it: they would immediately sell the 99 shares which would tend to move the stock price lower, away from the strike price.

 

[Chickenlittle]

There are SpaceX shares? Not that I know.

Yes tried to buy years ago. Not liquid can only sell at periodic times and can’t buy through typical brokerages

 

[Rarity]

It is tough to know for certain how SpaceX stock price has impacted TSLA. SpaceX has never had a down round, so perhaps it has lent stability to TSLA from time to time. But I wouldn't be surprised to see them mostly uncorrelated. TSLA's recent trip to $180 was more or less at the same time as SpaceX stock was commanding new highs.

Important to note that what has been uncorrelated could become correlated.

 

[LN1_Casey]

New leak from China:

View attachment 476037​

First time I've seen the new building being referred to as "power train factory". Also, this leaks makes the distinction that this is a pack assembly factory, not a cell factory.

Didn't Overlord Musk confirm during the Q3 Investor's Call that the new building was a cell factory?