I tell people I save 5.5k/year from using electricity from the grid plus gas bills to using the sun to power everything with an electric car. It's really a no brainer.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I tell people I save 5.5k/year from using electricity from the grid plus gas bills to using the sun to power everything with an electric car. It's really a no brainer.
bhtooefr
Active Member
So I'm seeing speculation in left circles that part of the recent rise in SP is directly connected to the coup in Bolivia (due to lithium supply).
...I explained that there's other factors going on here and an ongoing trend unrelated to the Bolivian coup, of the Q3 profit, shorts leaving, institutions coming in, and the whole options chain thing, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that argument (made by people on the right that probably supported the coup in the first place!) used as FUD.
(Also, come to think of it, aren't there signs that Tesla is going to look at Australia for supply of things like lithium?)
...I explained that there's other factors going on here and an ongoing trend unrelated to the Bolivian coup, of the Q3 profit, shorts leaving, institutions coming in, and the whole options chain thing, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that argument (made by people on the right that probably supported the coup in the first place!) used as FUD.
(Also, come to think of it, aren't there signs that Tesla is going to look at Australia for supply of things like lithium?)
One thing I would love Tesla to do: A comprehensive owner satisfaction survey of every single Tesla owner, including time variation to show direction of improvement. This could potentially be pushed via the Tesla app and in-car OS. Tesla should publicly commit to this and to publish the results no matter the outcome.
They should make this relatively quick to fill out, mostly touch screen multiple choice with optional extra feedback. Many of the same key questions can be asked as in the Bloomberg survey.
- Would you recommend to friends and family?
- Is reliability better than your previous cars?
- What was build quality?
- What is your annual running cost?
- Satisfaction rating for various features etc
- Customer communications score.
- Does Autopilot improve safety?
- Service score.
- Sales process score.
- Range anxiety score.
- What % of charging is overnight at home?
- Do you charge with solar energy etc.
- Battery degradation (though Tesla likely already has this data).
I'd also like Tesla to increase disclosure in its vehicle safety reports, including accidents, accidents reported to insurers, accidents with serious injury and fatalities. Together with comprehensive comparison to other brands from the NHTSA data. We know enough to be confident this will prove Tesla's safety, but the media still commonly tells people otherwise.
FUD is mostly anecdote driven and is most powerful in an information vacuum. And when data is on your side you should make full use of it.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Correct. The delta hedging of market makers adds about 1 million shares worth of extra buying pressure to every +$10 TSLA stock price increase.
This might not sound much, but it's probably more than the typical accumulation by all Tesla institutional investors on such a price move, on average... (Most of the daily trading volume is intraday or short term few days timeframe - not long term accumulation.)
There's a similar downside force, but it's much weaker currently than at $200 price levels, because most put contracts are so far away.
I.e. this effect is probably a significant upside volatility magnification factor.
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- Range anxiety score. -- This one needs to be worded carefully to get the right answer. Does zero mean no range anxiety, or I never drive it further than the grocery store due to range anxiety.
How is this a thing?
Bolivia doesn't produce lithium. Its lithium resources are uneconomical due to very high impurities which are extremely expensive to remove.
If anything political uncertainty and/or civil war will make it even less likely Bolivia ever produces lithium which would be negative for lithium buyers like Tesla.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
About 50k shares traded in the premarket so far - this is higher volume than usual.
bhtooefr
Active Member
Looks like there's a company that was going to try (factual errors in the article re: battery supply, though, ACISA doesn't supply batteries to Tesla), but Morales cancelled the agreement with ACISA before the coup: Bolivian Coup Comes Less Than a Week After Morales Stopped Multinational Firm's Lithium Deal
Edit: Digging deeper, it looks like 80% of the output of this was going to be sent to Germany. The deal being reinstated would have effects on the overall lithium market benefiting Tesla by increasing supply, but looking at LIT, the market seems to be treating this nearly neutrally (whereas if the market thought this was going to increase supply, LIT would be going down due to expected reduced profits for the mining companies outside of Bolivia).
So, yeah, although LIT does have some TSLA, it's mostly mining, and it going up slightly means TSLA's movement isn't related to the coup IMO.
Edit: Digging deeper, it looks like 80% of the output of this was going to be sent to Germany. The deal being reinstated would have effects on the overall lithium market benefiting Tesla by increasing supply, but looking at LIT, the market seems to be treating this nearly neutrally (whereas if the market thought this was going to increase supply, LIT would be going down due to expected reduced profits for the mining companies outside of Bolivia).
So, yeah, although LIT does have some TSLA, it's mostly mining, and it going up slightly means TSLA's movement isn't related to the coup IMO.
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I'm fairly sure - but again, please correct me if I'm wrong - that what actually makes market makers increase or decrease the move of the market is gamma, not OI in either puts or calls - ie. whether MMs have to hedge puts or calls, the magnitude of their dynamic hedging is about the same in either direction.
The MMs already bought the shares to do the initial delta hedging.
Consider this:
What happens if the SP goes down by $5? The delta of all every call they're short is lower, so they have to sell some shares to remain delta neutral. Further, the puts now have a bigger negative delta, which has the same effect, they have to sell shares.
What happens if the SP goes *up* by $5? More or less the same thing, but in reverse. The call delta is higher so they need to buy more share, the put delta is less negative so they have to buy more shares.
This is the effect of the MMs being short gamma - they will amplify price movements by dynamically hedging. If they had long gamma (ie. people wrote options instead of buying them), which basically only happens in indices and ETNs and volatility products and such, they would instead have to do the opposite and would thus dampen the price movement.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
To: Boss Short
Boss, Boss you won't believe how much US model 3 inventory has gone up this week.
In one week its gone up 20 % !!!
From 45 cars all the way to 54!
If they keep increasing inventory like this every week it would mean BANKWUPCY !
Senior Editor
Shortsville Times
Boss, Boss you won't believe how much US model 3 inventory has gone up this week.
In one week its gone up 20 % !!!
From 45 cars all the way to 54!
If they keep increasing inventory like this every week it would mean BANKWUPCY !
Senior Editor
Shortsville Times
54? No wonder model 3 used cost more than new. Elon has always warned people this is an appreciating asset.
TSLA up on rumors that Einhorn, Chanos, and Linette will demoing latest FSD in Model X while shuttling lithium ore down Bolivias most dangerous road in the world.
Must be GF4. Elon in talks with german government in Merkels office just a few minute walk from Hotel Adlon Kempinski?
I don't think the announcement will happen this week. But I wouldn't mind. Especially something like Tesla partnering with Daimler AG to build GF4. With Daimler providing Tesla with one of their facility ready to move in and retool withing 6-9 months. And Tesla supply contract to Daimler with battery packs for next 10 years.
Tesla Twitter feed has been abnormally quiet for the last few weeks...
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The market doesn't care what you or anyone else paid for their position, and neither should you or anyone else. I know I've said this before but it's such a common thinking error when it comes to personal investing, it bears repeating.
The only reason to hold a stock is that you think it will go up. Not because you paid more for it than it's current trading price. It's only human to consider what you paid for it but a good investor ignores that completely as irrelevant. Paying attention to an irrelevant factor *will* harm your returns because it dilutes the relevant considerations. If you are holding a stock at a loss and your analysis shows it's still a good investment, then continue holding. However, if your analysis shows you that the reasons you bought the stock in the first place are no longer in place, and you would not buy the stock, even at current prices, then, by all means, sell. Do *not* hold a stock simply because you are hoping to get out at break-even or with a small profit.
Likewise, never sell a good stock that is growing at a healthy clip simply because you are sitting on a healthy profit. That's a huge mistake and it will cost you dearly. I am shocked at how often I see this advice presented as "common sense". If the stock has room to run, let it ride. Show me someone who is always itchy to take profits and I'll show you someone who has below-average returns.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Private window in Firefox worked for me, (it doesn't save cookies).
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