Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

I know that @KarenRei disapproves of 18,650 vs. 21,700 discussions, but my take is the following:

• There's been persistent and credible seeming speculation that Panasonic's 18,650 lines in their Japanese factories could be converted over to the 21,700 cell format: a large percentage of equipment is cell format agnostic, and most of the format specific machines apparently can 'just about' accommodate the 21,700 format.
• It seems unlikely in the extreme to me that Panasonic would build 35 GWh/year 21,700 capacity without having a good forward plan for the 18,650 equipment - especially that 'closing factories and firing employees' is a social taboo in Japan.
  
• Panasonic's 18,650 manufacturing capacity in Japan is about 8 GWh/year.
• The Shanghai Gigafactory will only make Standard Range Model 3's.
  
• The Standard Range Model 3 will come with a ~50-55 kWh battery, which means 8 GWh/year supply is enough for 2800-3100 Model 3's at Shanghai.
• The targeted capacity of the Shanghai factory happens to be 3000 cars/week, matching the available cell supply in Japan very well ...

So I believe the conclusion is obvious: if Panasonic's Japan 18,650 output could be reconfigured to make 21,700 cells in a relatively low capex fashion, then that could form the basis for the initial Model 3 production in China. There would be no tariffs, and Japan->China transportation costs are lower as well as Japan->U.S. or U.S.->China.

But, obviously, this is probably under negotiation, and Panasonic would have to commit to this plan - and I bet Tesla wants a price reduction as well - they could after all probably buy cells on the Chinese market as well.

All of this is speculation only of course.

The main argument against this is that Elon said the 3k production target in GF3 is only 10% of the end goal. So Tesla would spend money redesigning battery packs for all their vehicles for a subset of Chinese production.

I still think the medium term outcome is a full shift to 21700 cells once there is a decent refresh of the S and X. The Japanese factories can retool at this point .

 

[gora321]

Alex on Twitter

 

[MarcusMaximus]

When down is 5x the closest competitor, you're still doing good....
When down is within 55 units of the next 7 vehicles combined, you're Crackerjack!

Especially when you make 2 of those other 7...

 

[brian45011]

If usage > demand max target and on site battery is providing maximum power (or depleted), reduce vehicle charging rate.

That might not be politic.

 

[Tslynk67]

No, I gave up my physical body long ago.

Ah, you've sublimed...

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

TESLA DELIVERED EST. 6,500 MODEL 3 IN U.S. IN JAN: INSIDEEVS

 

[brian45011]

As a general rule, the seller of the leases will need to contribute around 5% of the balance of those leases for each deal they do. We should expect similar costs each time Tesla issues a new securitisation. It's not a real cost though and the cash will come back by the time the securitisation is finished.

Does that presume the residual values in the underlying leases will be greater than FMV at lease expiration?

 

[humbaba]

May be not normal in the west, but it is normal in China (and India). Designers need to understand that "normal" is a cultural construct - not an absolute one.

True. And I admit I don't get out much. But to the extent I have been out of country there were a large number of US vehicles, or vehicles following US design considerations.

Certainly, in Europe the typical vehicle is smaller than in the US (yes, Karen, I'm painting with a broad brush, but in general terms and compared to the US there is a difference in size). I've never been to Asia, but I can understand the family/culture difference and how that would trend toward chauffeur vehicles.

But! Tesla is able to sell the model S and X in Europe, even if the size dampens enthusiasm. Likewise, I expect the 3 to sell just fine in China, even if it not being a chauffeur vehicle dampens enthusiasm. Remember, Tesla's goal is not to have a model for each market niche, but to accelerate EV adoption. If other companies provide vehicles better suited to the Chinese market that really isn't an issue.

But, as I noted earlier, after SEXY + truck + semi are at full production output then Tesla may consider future models or variations. Personally, I think they would be more likely to introduce a chauffeur vehicle than elongate an existing model. Musk, with his "first principles" approach would not want to shoehorn that into an existing design, but have the design team work out what an ideal chauffeur vehicle would be.

 

[gora321]

I can't say for GM that EV transition has really begun.

Able Lawrence | ഏബിൾ ലോറെൻസ് | أبل لورنس on Twitter

 

[Mich]

View attachment 373688
Alex on Twitter

Technically it is very unlikely that the numbers from the Google Doc is wrong. The down payment has an increasing bill number (per country) and every order has a down payment. So the maximum number of orders is the highest bill number (or less if they skip numbers or people cancel the order).

Reading the German forum the delivery hell is starting, but there's not a single known case of an order with a bill number outside of this sequence numbering. So the number of orders is about 16k.

However, it could be possible that large orders of institutions receive a different bill outside this numbering schema, but I guess there are not that many orders of that type (I know of one - "nextmove" ordered 25 M3s).

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - nearly 2 hours ago: Tesla patents new battery cell for faster charge, better longevity, and lower cost

 

[brian45011]

The promising thing is that expectations are low, but the AlphaHat data suggests that the drop since December hasn't been that great. I guess we'll find out.

M3 Delivery estimates:
December 2018 = 25250
January 2019 = 6,500

 

[gora321]

Bussy with fixing...all the time

 

[Tslynk67]

^^^
Precisely! I-Pace buyers are deciding between that and another Jag. E-Tron buyers are going to buy that instead of an A-6. All of which expands EV adoption without any impact on Tesla. That's my investment theory in TSLA as far as autos go.

The middle-aged and upwards tend to have formed loyalties too a bran dover the years and it takes a lot to pry them away from that, these are the iPace and eTron buyers.

The younger generation will buy a Tesla. Tesla are spurt-cool, 99% of them want a Tesla. maybe this will change over time as other EV's come to market, but right now, that's the way it is. Only problem is that most can't afford one, but Tesla are working on this...

 

[oneday]

Mar 27, 2018, 54 days away, will mark 1 year since Moody’s Tesla credit rating downgrade:

“We continue to expect that Tesla will need to raise new capital approximating $2 billion - in the form of equity, convertible notes or debt - in order cover a cash burn during 2018, and to refund a total of $1.3 billion of convertible debt that matures in late 2018 and early 2019.”
— Bruce Clark - Senior Vice President
— Moody’s Investors Service’s, Inc.​

Will they ever upgrade Tesla? It’s been obvious since q3 they were wrong. Possible Q1 SP catalyst? Maybe they’ll upgrade at 1 year anniversary?

Edited: To fix date and include link to downgrade https://moodys.com/research/Moodys-...e-family-rating-to-B3-senior-notes--PR_381481

 

[Buckminster]

Electric Peugeot 208, VW I.D. Crozz spotted during cold weather testing
Crozz looks like an even more boring Golf

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Meh... he's being a bit snarky, but I don't think it goes into outright trolling. And he's not astroturfing; I think the username is obvious enough for that. And he's pretty brave to jump into the lion's den like this

I don't want us to be like Twitter Shortsville where longs get banned on sight because they want to protect their TSLAQ bubble from intrusion of facts.

From your fingers to the moderators' ears!

 

[brian45011]

It is interesting to me what the plans for suscession will be for musk (hopefully not for a long time). It appears to me that Jerome is becoming a more prominent face and Straubel perhaps less.l

http://ir.teslamotors.com/static-files/775923e3-e9c7-4100-b7c3-af8f5975756f

 

[ZachF]

1) North America and South Korea median income isn't $3k per year.

2) Chinese that make over $38k (European Union Average) is over 330M. And this "global middle class" is growing much faster than Europe.

3) Standard practice in China for foreign automakers is to use 2-3 generation ago technology in local manufacturing, i.e. to prevent I.P. transfer to Chinese government. This may very well be the reason why only low end will be made in China not only for China but entire Asia Region. And Tesla will import premium Model 3/Y from the US for entire Asia Region.

4) Model Y will outsell Model 3 in Europe once fully ramped.

5) MInivan MPV are not sedans.

That number has to be false. 330m x $38k = $12.5 trillion... that's China's entire GDP, and wages as a share of GDP are smaller in China than the US or Europe.

The number of Chinese who make over $38k is probably well under 100m. According to Credit Suisse, only 81m Chinese have a net worth over $100k compared with 99m in the US.

You have to be careful throwing out "middle class" numbers because they often mean different things in different countries.

 

[M3Rider]

Much sooner. They have to maintain a reasonable diversity in configs, and ideally regional diversity as well.

They need to max out overseas shipments, especially to China - but not at the expense of needlessly drying up US sales.

China is on the back burner:

Glovis Captain - Europe
Glovis Cosmos - Europe
Glovis Symphony - China
Grand Aurora - Europe
CSCC Europe - Europe (Tesla)
Glovis Courage - ?