Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FreqFlyer]

Those are some serious low profile tires for an off-road capable vehicle, or perhaps they're non-pneumatic tires?

View attachment 477074

Here's a 3-D CAD drawing of a non-pneumatic tire:

View attachment 477079

I keep telling y'all, Cybertruck will be the first Tesla on Mars. That's why Elon loves it!

Cheers!

It would be cool if your theory war correct. Would explain some of Elon's excitement for this vehicle.

Airless tires have been in R&D for a while.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's some OT entertainment. Open in incognito tab(chrome) or private window(ff).

TeslaCharts on Twitter

Shortie fights...

Although, that BEARDIE does look like a troll. They are still trying to figure out which one should be blocked.

LMAO! Circular firing squad, TSLAQ-style.

Elon: Chess-master
Shortz: Chest-fallen​

Cheers!

P.S. With today's > $350 Close, look for another 'mini-squeeze' at Open on Monday, as those margin calls keep rollin' along, knockin' down another wave of the Shorties Armies. Let's roll, troops!

P.P.S. those are some BFGs right up in there, hey wot?

 

[Artful Dodger]

California says it won’t buy cars from GM, Toyota, others opposing tough tailpipe standards | CalMatters

So from which automakers will the State of California procure cars?

But isn't it against the Interstate Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution for any State to outright ban the sale of vehicles manufactured in another U.S. State?!

Oh, wait...

 

[Mokuzai]

I am extremely new to options but do any of you guys buy Tesla shares by selling cash covered puts with very short expiration date and have the strike price to be at break even? Seems like you make the premium if you do well and you are forced to buy the Tesla shares if it goes south. But if you were planning on buying shares anyway, I don't know if I see the downside. Again, just learned about this so I'm pretty sure I'm missing something.

Tesla is very volatile and pricey for this strategy. I’m currently employing this in my IRA with lower cost dividend stocks that I would like to own. Sell cash secured puts to absorb the premium and if I get put upon I switch to selling covered calls with the possibility of holding during a dividend period.

Did this for a few TSLA sold puts but it ties up a lot of cash. If the idea is to build up a TSLA position it’s probably better to buy at discount times. Personally pretty comfortable with my long position so deploying that strategy using lower strike dividend stocks.

Of course not advice.

 

[hacer]

Yes, I was simplifying from my perspective as I never have that kind of cash in my account and the stock exchange and resell looks that way.

If you don't have sufficient cash or margin in your account to exercise the option, most brokers will immediately sell the stock on Monday morning after exercise. They will also send you a nasty-gram about it and quite possibly suspend your account even if it was a profitable trade. There is good reason for this.

Since TSLA did close above 350 today, assuming you didn't sell your call or instruct that it not be exercised, it will be assigned on Saturday. If say a meteor strikes the Freemont factory on Sunday and TSLA opens gap down at 250 on Monday, they will come after you for restitution. They will show no mercy but they really don't want to ever be in such a position; thus it is your responsibility to have the cash or margin for the exercise. They no doubt disclosed this requirement to you before granting the ability to trade options.

 

[RobStark]

I'm not sure what the point is in posting one-month sales figures since there is naturally a lot of granularity to them. In any case, are the iPace and eTron price comparable to Models S&X? Because Model 3 sales are dwarfing the combined sales of iPace, eTron *and* S&X.

I also note that *combined* Model S&X sales are running roughshod over both the eTron and the iPace.

Look a little closer.

The chart also shows 2019 YTD sales and the rankings are based on YTD sales not September.

In price I Pace and E-tron are closer to Model S and Model X than Model 3.

Combing sales of S and X are. Because I Pace and Etron are only offered in one form factor.

For their price class I Pace and E-tron European sales are doing quite well despite E-tron being an objectively inferior car to all Teslas. That is the power of brand.

That is also why even if Mach-e is objectively inferior to Model Y it will sell ok in America. Some people simply trust Ford more than Tesla. When you are buying a new car that is the second biggest purchase for most people.

It may be bat *sugar* crazy to trust in Ford more than Tesla but that is the reality for at least 15% of the American car buying population.

 

[S3XY]

We will hear:

Cybertruck might appeal to butch dykes.
It might appeal to a 20-year-old kid who spends all day playing video games but not someone who depends upon it to earn a living.
Sure, it looks cool, but a real tradesman can't rely on a truck that is dependent upon batteries.
Musk should take his truck to Mars - it has no business attempting real work here in the real world.
AWD doesn't work when the batteries die. Then it's no wheel drive.

I'm lining up the funds to take advantage of all this cr@p after the reveal. But if the SP pops a bit afterwards it's not a big deal in the long term scheme of things. I'll still be adding to my holdings.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla is very volatile and pricey for this strategy. I’m currently employing this in my IRA with lower cost dividend stocks that I would like to own. Sell cash secured puts to absorb the premium and if I get put upon I switch to selling covered calls with the possibility of holding during a dividend period.

Did this for a few TSLA sold puts but it ties up a lot of cash. If the idea is to build up a TSLA position it’s probably better to buy at discount times. Personally pretty comfortable with my long position so deploying that strategy using lower strike dividend stocks.

Of course not advice.

So that theta wheel strategy actually works with low risk?

 

[RobStark]

yeh, but where is Ford gettin em from, and @ what $ pr KWH.

This is virtually all that matters for significant (beyond compliance) numbers. Additionally, is Ford producing the drivetrain (battery + motor) or are they pullin a GM and farming out the whole thing.

I hope that they are super successful to the extent that they can see the economic benefit of EV’s. Thereno way to meet Tesla’s corporate mission without buy in from outside producers. There is a ton of room in the market for multiple participants to flourish.

Here’s to Fords success for a MASS PRODUCED EV. Nothing short of this is of ANY consequence to hyper growth of Tesla’s vehicle business and it’ll take at least 2 or 3 Ford size competitors to “threaten” Tesla’s market share.

Fire Away!

Tesla doesn't publish the purchase price of their cells. They don't want to give monthly numbers.
Tesla won't give out sales by country.

You expect Ford to give hyper details on their BEV program a year out?

I don't know where nor at what price Ford will acquire cells. Point is there are cells out there to be bought. For a long time many in this forum insisted nobody else could mass produce an EV because there were no cells to be purchased.

I don't know if Ford will insource or outsource their motors.

Ignoring competitors stated objectives, investments, and negotiations with their respective Unions to build BEVs, putting fingers in ears, and saying la la la Tesla will dominate Automotive and Energy markets la la la la is not a good strategy for investors.

VW is aiming to produce ~320k BEVs in Germany, ~180k in the USA and ~500k in China.

Recent contract negotiations with the UAW, we found out that GM is planning to produce 80k full size trucks in Michigan, including making cells in the midwest.

In addition to Mach-E, we know Ford will make F150e and is collaborating with VW to make MEB based BEVs.

The Chinese are exporting BEV CUVs to Europe, in all likelihood as a first step to selling them in the USA.

The times are change'n

 

[RobStark]

How do the quarterly numbers look though? September is the last month of the quarter, when most deliveries are in the US.

Look closely.

They also show 2019 YTD through September numbers. That is how rankings are based, not on September numbers alone. Those are the most recently compiled numbers available.

We will get 2019 YTD through October within two weeks.

 

[RobStark]

If that was the whole point why did Elon make a truck which he said he doesn't know if people will like it or buy it?

Because this isn't a bet the company product.

Elon is batting for a grand slam IMO. To change the perception of Americans of what a full size truck should be.

He said if there is "pushback" it is easy enough to make a conventional form factor truck.

It is ok if huge sales of pickups is delayed a while.

Some here don't believe him. That he will make a conventional form factor truck if cybertruck fails. I do.

 

[jhm]

But isn't it against the Interstate Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution for any State to outright ban the sale of vehicles manufactured in another U.S. State?!

Oh, wait...

I believe this only pertains to vehicles the state government buys. I don't think the ICC imposses any constraint on government procurement.

A lot of government employees in California could be driving a Model 3 as they serve the public.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't know where nor at what price Ford will acquire cells. Point is there are cells out there to be bought. For a long time many in this forum insisted nobody else could mass produce an EV because there were no cells to be purchased.

Depending upon what your definition of "mass produce" is, that's still true today. If you don't have a supply of cells already locked down (or your own in-house production capacity), you will not be able to mass-produce a 300 mile EV at truly high volumes next year. Eventually, there might be enough battery supply (but that assumes demand won't rise faster than supply).

 

[StealthP3D]

VW is aiming to produce ~320k BEVs in Germany, ~180k in the USA and ~500k in China.

Tesla is aiming to produce millions. The question is when can VW hit their target volume? I'll bet you they won't for at least three years. What will Tesla production be in three years?

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Meh. The 2020 Ford Explorer is already on Mars ( just watch their TV commercials).

View attachment 477471

The 2020 Ford Explorer Platinum: Journey Home | Explorer | Ford | YouTube

P.S. Yes, that pic shows a mockup of SpaceX's Dragon2 capsule, extracted from Ford's Ad.

But notice how Ford Marketing added a porthole and CLEVERLY flipped the image so that the SpaceX cabin door would appear backwards.

LOSERS!

PS2: Here's what the SpaceX capsule looks like on static display in cool blue.
See any 'Ford-miliarity'? (more like Faux-miliarity?)

View attachment 477472

BAHAHAH!

This is clearly a Dragon v1 aka Cargo Dragon. Crew Dragon is v2, which would have the abort (and originally also landing, but no more) engine nacelles on the sides.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Tesla is aiming to produce millions. The question is when can VW hit their target volume? I'll bet you they won't for at least three years. What will Tesla production be in three years?

At the moment VW is having trouble scaling EV production. The E-Tron was supposed to reach production of 300 cars per working day this year (75,000 for the whole year). After some delays the target For 2019 was lowered to 45,000. But they will have a hard time reaching that. Audi is consistently delivering about 2,500 cars worldwide every month, so 30,000 on a yearly basis. Due to the slow start in the first months they are unlikely to even reach 25,000 this year.

It is not exactly clear what is causing the shortfall. It could be a lack of batteries, but I think that is unlikely given the official guidance of 300 cars per day. They would not give such guidance if battery supply was not secured. I’m more inclined to think that it is a lack of demand, especially in the US where they are only selling 400 to 500 per month. Paying millions for the E-Tron to be featured in Avengers and Spiderman is not exactly paying off.

In Europe they are selling triple that number, about 1500 per month, but the car needs a lot of pushing. Here in The Netherlands we are being bombarded with commercials for the E-Tron. But you have to hand it to VW: they seem to be taking EVs seriously and are investing a lot in their promotion. VW is also airing commercials about the ID3 and about their electric range in general. Recently they even introduced a commercial which aims to take away misconceptions about electric cars, like their impact on the environment (“an electric car charged with green electricity causes two thirds less pollution than a regular car’). This also helps Tesla.

 

[NicoV]

Trailer, yes. Camper is less obviously true. Improvements in aerodynamics by not having the open bed may override losses from weight.

If the Cybertruck becomes available in a (mini)-camper format, I’ll order one immediately!

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is clearly a Dragon v1 aka Cargo Dragon. Crew Dragon is v2, which would have the abort (and originally also landing, but no more) engine nacelles on the sides.

Lol, I noticed that too, but I thought it would be more fun if one of you caught Ford slapping a porthole on a Cargo Dragon while trying to stump TMC. Well done!
(the hint was the static display model)

Cheers!​

 

[Nakata]

At the moment VW is having trouble scaling EV production. The E-Tron was supposed to reach production of 300 cars per working day this year (75,000 for the whole year). After some delays the target For 2019 was lowered to 45,000. But they will have a hard time reaching that. Audi is consistently delivering about 2,500 cars worldwide every month, so 30,000 on a yearly basis. Due to the slow start in the first months they are unlikely to even reach 25,000 this year.

It is not exactly clear what is causing the shortfall. It could be a lack of batteries, but I think that is unlikely given the official guidance of 300 cars per day. They would not give such guidance if battery supply was not secured. I’m more inclined to think that it is a lack of demand, especially in the US where they are only selling 400 to 500 per month. Paying millions for the E-Tron to be featured in Avengers and Spiderman is not exactly paying off.

In Europe they are selling triple that number, about 1500 per month, but the car needs a lot of pushing. Here in The Netherlands we are being bombarded with commercials for the E-Tron. But you have to hand it to VW: they seem to be taking EVs seriously and are investing a lot in their promotion. VW is also airing commercials about the ID3 and about their electric range in general. Recently they even introduced a commercial which aims to take away misconceptions about electric cars, like their impact on the environment (“an electric car charged with green electricity causes two thirds less pollution than a regular car’). This also helps Tesla.

I like to add we are not only bombarded by Audi en ID commercials. I see a lot of Zoe, Kona and Leaf commercials. Not only on tv but also radio and internet. They all mention that the subsidy will change at the end of the year.

Meanwhile Tesla is doing no commercials and this is the result so far.
EV Sales: Netherlands October 2019

 

[nativewolf]

Are etron and ipace similarly priced cars compared with MS and MX? Might be interesting to compare with S-Class, BMW 5 and 7 series cars just as a point of interest.

Clearly some people don't like waiting. Tesla right now is capacity constrained, in 2 years maybe they'll still be. If so, great news for the world. The ipace and etron are just lacking in features and I think time will show those to be poor purchase decisions but you can get them today and not wait on a boat for a month or 6.