Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chocochip]

One apparent, small setback at GF3 is that the row of supercharger stalls that was operating south of the main factory building has been removed, with earth work going on at that location.

It looks like there’s a whole bunch of Supercharger stalls on the west side of the factory, to the right of the main entrance, check @ 7:50 in the video.

It looks like they determined that the East-West passage South of the main factory building has to be moved slightly South, closer to the new building they are putting up.

I’m not convinced there will still be any external East-West passage, they might simply build up the whole area and connect the Phase 1 building with the drivetrain/battery pack building.

At the moment there seems to be no direct access East-to-West, which suggests that newly-produced cars go to the West side for that testing loop, and once they complete it they go back into the building and exit on the East side (don’t remember the exact gate number, might be 01, it’s the first one north of the black section, someone pointed out there was a Model 3 coming out from there in last week’s drone footage).

 

[HG Wells]

WOW, looking at the parking lots on the Nov 28 and Dec 5th video is just amazing.
Car production is advancing quickly.

Happy days are here again !

 

[lklundin]

.


In broad terms a copy of phase 1 for production of TMY.

For a new factory building East of the current main one at GF3, I would have expected to see pile drivers like we did for the initial phase of the GF3 construction.

So I guess the pile drivers are still to come, after the ongoing land grading?
- or have the pile drivers already been there?

 

[LJS22]

Some months ago there was discussion (by Jerome Guillen?) of a move to simplifying the underbody manufacture by moving to (initially) two half underbody castings and then a single underbody casting - there was a patent published related to the large multidirectional casting machine that would be required. Does anyone have any information as to whether either the initial step or the second step have been implemented (and if not if there is a timeline for them to be implemented)?

Similar question regarding the simplified wiring. There seemed to be indications this might be implemented for the MIC model 3 in advance of the Model Y in Fremont but have not seen any firm information to confirm that this has occurred.

Perhaps I have been using the wrong search terms but cannot find any reference searching on TMC. Found this on Teslarati The Model Y is an understated Trojan Horse for Tesla's manufacturing ambitions

Saw this video of the model y driving the other day...it’s going to do really well. There’s some nice configurations for it and it will fit so many needs for people and their families without being too big.
SF TESLA CLUB on Twitter

 

[Stretch2727]

Uh, what? Maybe someone can interpret Toyota speak for me.

Toyota executive warns of "electrified armageddon" for auto industry

...But Toyota thinks there's still not enough demand for EVs, and it remains primarily focused on hybrids like its hot-selling Rav4 hybrid. ....

Toyota EVP Bob Carter: "Somebody's got to buy these things. I've been saying we're going to see electrified armageddon. Because of the cost premium, supply is going to get ahead of true customer demand."

I do believe the current OEM's will have difficulty selling their EV's due to lack of seamless charging infrastructure and the efficiency/range delta to Tesla. It will appear as they have over invested but in reality the EV market will go to largely Tesla.

GM and Ford plans for their pickups were probably no where near 500 miles for $70K prior to the Cybertruck announcement. I am sure they are struggling with competing against these specs, but realize they have to move to EV if they are going to survive.

I like Mary Barra's comment that the the market will go 100% electric and the only question is when. This is a fact and at least shows some leadership.

Toyota's solution is basically avoidance of the entire issue. No demand etc. They are setting themselves up for a huge downfall and a few future books on how they missed this disruption.

 

[KarenRei]

Are people seriously still talking about the police car crash? You know it's getting basically zero coverage, right? Here's a Google News search for Tesla:

Way down the list.

Are you making a statement of fact?
Please include a link to your sources, preferably from Tesla. Otherwise, I don't understand your persistence.

It's been in tons of articles, such as this one:
Tesla Cybertruck: Range, Power, Payload, Towing, Price + More - Automobile

Remember that a lot of the journalists writing on Cybertruck were directly meeting with Tesla during the work on their articles, which were then embargoed until the release.

It's also the "really bloody obvious answer" to the question of range. Tesla has been talking about going to double-thickness packs for range for years.

Yeah, so your "phase 2" isn't really phase 2, it's the "battery workshop".

The empty land now being graded is the actual "phase 2", as seen in this artist rendition of the site plan from early Nov 2019: (buildings outlined in RED are complete)

View attachment 486046

The bty workshop will be in production at GF3/Shanghai by the time Model Y ramps in Fremont, so the spare capacity in bty packs from GF1/Sparks will be needed at Fremont right away.

Look for continuous facility construction at GF3 until capacity in China is at least 500K/yr. Then knowing Tesla, that capacity will increase AFTER a few revisions, as well as retail price decreases act to increase demand. Its the virtuous cycle, EV edition.

Cheers!

I'm confused by what your point is. They didn't write the words "phase 2" in the post you're replying to. And the area being graded is what's supposed to be the Model Y line. The "phase 1.5" battery workshop is the building that's risen to the south of the Model 3 line and which has nearly been enclosed.

All this said, we really don't know that they're going straight to building the Model Y line. They could just be building more parking lot space (could certainly use it), for example, which could eventually be replaced by the Y line. We'll see soon enough, depending on whether pile drivers show up There's also a number of buildings on the northeast end which currently would get in the way of the Y building, if built according to the plans.

 

[KarenRei]

So i saw Elon Musk today at a restaurant called Nobu in Los Angeles today. Guess what he was driving? : pics

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm confused by what your point is. They didn't write the words "phase 2" in the post you're replying to

Perhaps read the entire comment from @RubberToe ?

"The holding lot is almost full. If they don't start moving those cars to customers there will no place else to put them. Also, the area between phase 1 (auto assembly) and the new phase 2 building looks to be under active construction now. Maybe connecting them?"​

He/she doesn't seem confused, since they 'liked' my reply. This stems back to an uninformed Oct 11 Teslarati headline referring to the yet unnamed Bty Workshop as GF3 "Phase 2":

Tesla Gigafactory 3 Phase 2 area rises as onsite Supercharger takes shape | Teslarati

This is what they were calling "Phase 2": Recognize it?

A subsequent video releasd by Shanghai drone pilot "Wu Wa" was the first to correctly identify the then-new structure as the "Battery Workshop", and confirmed by Elon during the 2019Q3 Conference Call.

Cheers!

 

[winfield100]

Your complaints are misplaced, Tesla has been going that route for the last ~5 years.

Still your original claim is false, which you still didn't retract or correct:



This is false, and as an investor you should be happy that TSLA is still only valued as a car company and is worth $330: your "tech company" thesis is yet to be recognized, and you already have profits on your investment.

Once real FSD valuation is recognized in TSLA it will be a massive event.

Not advice.

@Fact Checking
Yes (sheds tears of sorrow)
My co worker said “Robert , buy some AAPL”
I said “not enough action”
(Very early 80’s pre any splits)
If I had just bought and held, my AAPL shares would be
$15,159.76/share if I had just bought 100 shares (weep) actual worth
So I’m still DCA’ing TSLA because it will do similar
(AAPL did 56:1 splits)
My kids and grand kids can sell it to finance their Mars colonization
(Thanks, gramps)
Heavens, read @KarenRei paper (heavily researched) on colonizing Venus by being aeronauts
Or watch Eric Wernquists short on colonization of solar system
(Out of the cradle, endlessly orbiting)
(It’s the weekend and the dragon docked at the ISS)
Visualize the future and aim for it

 

[KarenRei]

Perhaps read the entire comment from @RubberToe ?

"The holding lot is almost full. If they don't start moving those cars to customers there will no place else to put them. Also, the area between phase 1 (auto assembly) and the new phase 2 building looks to be under active construction now. Maybe connecting them?"​

He/she doesn't seem confused, since they 'liked' my reply. This stems back to an uninformed Oct 11 Teslarati headline calling the yet unnamed Bty Workshop "Phase 2":

Tesla Gigafactory 3 Phase 2 area rises as onsite Supercharger takes shape

This is what they were calling "Phase 2". Recognize it?

A subsequent video releasd by Shanghai drone pilot "Wu Wa" was the first to correctly identify the then-new structure as the "Battery Workshop", and confirmed by Elon during the 2019Q3 Conference Call.

Cheers!

Here's the reply, as seen in your post:

---------

---------

There is no mention of phase 2 in what you're replying to. If it was in their original post, you deleted it.

 

[KarenRei]

BTW, speaking of pile drivers... perhaps I missed it, but did anyone else mention that they are on-site between the phase 1 and 1.5 sections?

So that definitely confirms that they're getting ready to close the gap between those buildings. No need to build pile foundations unless you're planning to put something heavy there.

 

[Fact Checking]

I think it's almost certain Tesla will lower MIC Model 3 pricing from current levels.
MIC SR+ list price is ¥ 335,800 or $50.6k. This includes 13% VAT, so excluding this the price is $44.8k.
This is the comparable price to the $39.5k list price of the SR+ Model 3 in the US. So MIC is currently priced significantly higher than in the US.
But I don't think this even includes the impact of the China subsidy - in China the Automaker receives the subsidy and not the customer. So in addition to the $44.8k paid by the customer, Tesla will receive ¥25k or $3.5k from the government. This is a total $48.3k or $8.8k more per car than the price in the US.

I think over time the MIC SR+ price will trend down towards the $39.5k US price (which would mean listed at ¥289,000 including VAT) to account for:

• The recent addition to the subsidy list.
• Ramp up of Battery and Powertrain shop in China which will significantly reduce tariffs paid on parts imports from the US.
• Lower production costs as production ramps due mainly to: Less depreciation per car, less staff hours per car, less scrap per car
• Start of production of LR AWD Model 3 in China. Because Tesla has to pay such huge tariffs on imports of these models, it has to price the MIC SR+ artificially high to keep a more balanced price gap between the models.

There's one step that will almost certainly guarantee a price drop: right now the MIC Model 3 uses GF1 Panasonic cells from U.S., with an energy density of about 155 Wh/kg. Once they switch to LG Chem cells it goes down to 145 Wh/kg.

Note that both sources of cells qualified for the Chinese domestic EV subsidies, which is a pretty big deal in itself.

So once they start using LG Chem cells the range will go down by about 7% and I'd expect a price drop.

 

[KarenRei]

There's one step that will almost certainly guarantee a price drop: right now the MIC Model 3 uses GF1 Panasonic cells from U.S., with an energy density of about 155 Wh/kg. Once they switch to LG Chem cells it goes down to 145 Wh/kg.

Note that both sources of cells qualified for the EV subsidies, which is a pretty big deal in itself.

So once they start using LG Chem cells the range will go down by about 7% and I'd expect a price drop.

Musk has stated that they plan to compensate for any cell differences by increasing the number of cells.

 

[Fact Checking]

Here's the reply, as seen in your post:

---------
View attachment 486058
---------

There is no mention of phase 2 in what you're replying to. If it was in their original post, you deleted it.

Btw., I've seen the "Battery Workshop" referenced as "Phase 1.5" - to be finished by March 2020.

My guess: "Phase 2" is a second general assembly line in the existing GF3 main building, which will assemble the Model Y. I'd expect them to start this around Q1-Q2 next year, informed by the GF3 and Fremont Model Y ramp-up.

Phase 3 will be another main building, parallel to the current one - Phase 4 will be its second GA line.

Total output of 4-phase GF3 will be about 1,000,000 units/year.

Ramp-up of Phase 1:

• 1x 8 hour shift to 1k/week, 50k/year,
• 2nd shift in January-February, 2k/week, 100k/year,
• 3rd shift in February-April, 3k/week, 150k/year nominal output
• 4th shift (each shift 6 hours), 4k/week, 200k/year
• additional gradual efficiency improvements +25%, 250k/year

Phase 2 doubles this to 500k/year, all four phases to 1m/year - but they'll ramp the 3rd and 4th phases more carefully and first observe whether addressable market and demand goes near 1m/year in Greater China and nearby APAC regions served by GF3.

 

[Fact Checking]

Musk has stated that they plan to compensate for any cell differences by increasing the number of cells.

Plans might have changed, because mass of both Model 3 variants in the permits is equal.

Edit: the permit:

Capacity difference is 153 Wh/kg vs. 145 Wh/kg, or 5.5%.

 

[Tslynk67]

$9.99/mo is great for Premium Connectivity am very happy to pay as an owner. Would anyone like to guess how much Q revenue this will add 2020 Q1? I wonder what they pay for 4G LTE cell data per vehicle? Any guesses? For those that think $9.99/mo is too much, note that SIRI(us) charges $15.99 for just music and Howard Stern:

"OFFER DETAILS: Activate a Select subscription and pay $60 for your first 12 months, a savings of 68% off the current monthly rate of $15.99" [I was a SIRI early adopter and bought 400 shares for $1.66 on 8/8/2011 when it was uncertain if they would survive. Only reason I still own is they bought Pandora last year.]

Q_gross = 3 * $9.99/mo * uptake_percentage * num_vehicles
Q_net = Q_gross - ( monthly_cell_data * num_vehicles )

Since comped Premium Connectivity ends 12/31/2019 all these new subs will start counting in Q1 which historically is slow.

If monthly_cell_data = $3/vehicle (wild guess), then over time:

1M subs = $84M/yr; 2M subs = $168M/yr; 3M subs = $252M/yr; 5M subs = $420M/yr; 10M subs = $840M/yr

IMHO, TSLA should reinvest part of the sub $$ into developing additional subscription services so they can add higher tier(s), say $14.99/mo and $19.99/mo. One thing I personally want is Google StreetView integration.

I find it interesting that we can use the web browser in nav on autopilot. Personally, I only do it in < 20 mph freeway traffic. On a road trip from LA to Fremont yesterday, for fun I kept the Yahoo! Finance TSLA stock price live updating: (the cord leads to my windshield suction cup-mounted radar detector )

I asked the IR director at the 2018 stockholders meeting if TSLA is considering offering built-in AMZN Alexa connectivity. I figured they could work out a deal to get a cut of all the stuff we voice order in our cars, etc. He said: "Elon would never do that." Of course, now there is Echo Auto. As an investor, I think TSLA should do everything they can to monetize our time spent in their vehicles. It can be done through the web browser today using a shopping portal.

Would love the $TSLA ticker to be an option on the screen, just in the header or footer area, TBH on my 2017 MX, the browser and connection are so slow that it's pretty impossible to use any websites for that.

 

[Fact Checking]

BTW, speaking of pile drivers... perhaps I missed it, but did anyone else mention that they are on-site between the phase 1 and 1.5 sections?

View attachment 486064

So that definitely confirms that they're getting ready to close the gap between those buildings. No need to build pile foundations unless you're planning to put something heavy there.

Agreed, someone on Twitter noticed that the exact same piledrivers were used for the Battery Workshop as for the "Gap" now.

Battery Workshop piledrivers weeks ago:

"The Gap" piledrivers two days ago:

 

[Fact Checking]

They could just be building more parking lot space (could certainly use it), for example, which could eventually be replaced by the Y line.

I don't think that's suitable space for the Model Y general assembly line: it's not nearly long enough, and this is the side of the stamping press.

Here's the planned GF3 layout, from about a month ago:

I believe the Model Y GA line is right next to and parallel to the Model 3 GA line, within the existing building.

I.e. Model Y capacity can probably be added reasonably quickly, without much extra construction.

 

[floydboy]

I do believe the current OEM's will have difficulty selling their EV's due to lack of seamless charging infrastructure and the efficiency/range delta to Tesla. It will appear as they have over invested but in reality the EV market will go to largely Tesla.

GM and Ford plans for their pickups were probably no where near 500 miles for $70K prior to the Cybertruck announcement. I am sure they are struggling with competing against these specs, but realize they have to move to EV if they are going to survive.

I like Mary Barra's comment that the the market will go 100% electric and the only question is when. This is a fact and at least shows some leadership.

Toyota's solution is basically avoidance of the entire issue. No demand etc. They are setting themselves up for a huge downfall and a few future books on how they missed this disruption.

I keep thinking to myself, that Toyota has got to know what's coming in the way of electrification. So, maybe they're developing their BEVs discreetly. Then they'll pop out with some decent all electric vehicles(having siphoned all the 'hydrogen economy' bucks they can from the Japanese government). If not, then we got ourselves another Titanic.

 

[scaesare]

Pretty sure that's a Ford Focus
View attachment 485994

That's the skit they did at one of their meetings when he retired. A long time ago, and not necessarily his car.