Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

CNBC Fast Money - hour ago:

Was interesting until Tim and the other "I have no idea" goon came on!

As regards the mess in the Middle East, futures recovering, only -0.17 for the moment

 

[MABMAB]

Nothing crazy about it. Not yet. Not even close.

Here's an exercise for you. Tell me where the top is on this chart:

View attachment 497738
Let's say, starting at the first of the year you invested about $36,100 and it had more than doubled to over $72,000 by 3/27. Probably time to get out, right? I mean you just made $36,000 in less than three months! But wait! In only a little over a month more it went up to $92,000!

You are really glad you didn't sell but now, yes, now, it really does look like it's topping out. Well, it sags down to $86,000 over the next two days. It looks like the fun is over. Better get out with your profits, right? Because in only 2 days you just lost $6,000. At this rate, all your profits will be gone in only two or three weeks, probably sooner once everyone decides to bail. Right? But then in five trading days you notice it's at $109,900! What good fortune you have had! This has got to be the top! It's crazy! Certainly over-valued. You had better act fast and sell because it's dropping fast. Everyone is bailing. If you sell now you will have tripled your original investment of $36,100 in a little over 3 months! Obviously, it is the RIGHT time to sell, right? Because you have never made $72,000 in such a short period of time. And it's going the wrong direction. Down! This must be the top!

But, dang, you forgot to sell. How stupid of you (obviously it really was the top as it only took four days to go all the way back to $78,000)! You are such an idiot! You just "lost" almost $22,000 in four frickin' days! Maybe you should cash out your $78,000 now before it goes down further and lock in your "awesome" profits. Your wife doesn't want you "gambling" with that much money either. So you sell. You kick yourself for not selling at the tip-top (when it was worth $109,900) but at least you got out with $78,000 which is a heck of a lot more than you started with, right?

View attachment 497744
OK. The last chart ended at $8 (the dip right below the second "E" from the left). That's right, you sold out your stake for $78,000. Had you held it to the end of the year, another 8 1/2 months, it would have topped out at $1 million dollars!

I'm not trying to say Tesla will appreciate just as fast (it won't, it'll take longer) but this exercise shows the folly of trying to sell at the top. The folly of thinking just because something has appreciated to what seems like an unbelievably high price, that it can't go much higher. The folly of thinking that just because your position declines 20% and you didn't sell it, that you made a huge mistake. All follies.

How fast will TSLA appreciate? Who knows but I've been very impressed with what I've seen of Musk's execution to date.
How far will TSLA rise? I don't know but the addressable markets are absolutely huge (cars, solar, energy storage).
Will the Robo-taxi work and become hugely profitable? I don't know but my investment thesis doesn't depend upon it - it's just the potential frosting on the cake. A very tasty cake, even without the frosting. Personally, I believe it will have some really sweet frosting on it. But I won't be unhappy if it doesn't.

Now that you have asked "everyone here" to "think about the current price movement", maybe you could tell us what YOU think about the current price movement. Buy, sell or hold?

Is this a made up pretty picture? What company was this? Thanks

 

[Artful Dodger]

some have speculated that TSLA is overpriced, since it is priced higher than the 20th century car companies.

If that comparison made sense, wouldn’t we need to add the value of the dealers to the value?

as a wild guess, the average dealer has a value of $10M, including inventory. For Chevy alone, with ~5000 dealers, wouldn’t this add another $50B to the value?

Lol, If Tesla was forced to have dealerships, do you think the company would be worth more, or less?

Dealerships subtract value from the Company, and extract value from their Customers. Tesla is vertically integrated, including its Retail operations. That ADDS value.

Cheers!

 

[LN1_Casey]

He didn't found Tesla. Mark Tarpenning and Martin Eberhard did. Elon was its first investor. Years later he got the lawyers to rewrite the history so he was declared a co-founder. Just sayin'.

Tesla was a half formed idea company before Overlord Musk. He took it and actually breathed life into it; he did found this company, there was no rewrite at all.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nasdaq 100 Futures - Mar 20
05:38:45 Real-time derived
8,853.88 +0.88 +0.01%

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock TSLA
$467.30 -1.76 -0.38%
05:46 EST 1/8/2020​

 

[SO16]

Of course not.
It would also not be where it is today without Mark Tarpenning and Martin Eberhard.
Without a start there is no run.

True...Tesla wouldn’t. But......

Elon had thought about electric cars long before Tesla. If not Tesla, he would have either joined another company or started a new one.

The startup EV company that Musk joined is easily interchangeable. The drive, leadership and money (Musk) is not.

 

[Aeon]

So we are roughly 3.3% up since the night time low (452.51$) due to Iran retaliation against Cinamon Hitlers temper tantrum.
Could have been a prettier premarket, but oh well...

 

[mars_or_bust]

This may not be politically correct, and I am saying this with all due respect regarding the all important mating preferences of speckled bats and fornicating migrating birds or whatever, but this is more than silly, and one of the reasons the EU is stuck going nowhere, wondering why the US and China, with all their flaws, are kicking their ass in technology and economy.

Tesla’s run-in with endangered bats could delay plans for Gigafactory 4

The EU is so crazy that this may not even be dirty tricks by VW or the other pre extinction dinosaurii, but genuine local madness.

I expect that such crap will delay GF4 by at least a couple months. Not great, not terrible. But unnecesary. And not surprising.

EDIT: P.R. wise, this delay, if it actually becomes significant (say 3- 6 months) could actually be a great boost for Tesla China sales, and even for Tesla reputation in Europe, as Germany will prove to be incompetent and backward and probably engaging in stalling tactics, diminishing the German car brands, making the feel about them a lot less high tech and a lot more old school and boring and desperate and dying.

 

[DFibRL8R]

Shikaka!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not a new poster, but wish to remain hidden.....
THANK YOU TSLAQ

Good job on those Options (way to punish the Shortzes). Now if you convert those winnings to TSLA shares, then some day you'll be RICH!

Cheers!

 

[elasalle]

Not a new poster, but wish to remain hidden.....
THANK YOU TSLAQ
View attachment 497800

Congrats. Seems timing was immaculate.

 

[jeewee3000]

This may not be politically correct, and I am saying this with all due respect regarding the all important mating preferences of speckled bats and fornicating migrating birds or whatever, but this is more than silly, and one of the reasons the EU is stuck going nowhere, wondering why the US and China, with all their flaws, are kicking their ass in technology and economy.

Tesla’s run-in with endangered bats could delay plans for Gigafactory 4

The EU is so crazy that this may not even be dirty tricks by VW or the other pre extinction dinosaurii, but genuine local madness.

I expect that such crap will delay GF4 by at least a couple months. Not great, not terrible. But unnecesary. And not surprising.

EDIT: P.R. wise, this delay, if it actually becomes significant (say 3- 6 months) could actually be a great boost for Tesla China sales, and even for Tesla reputation in Europe, as Germany will prove to be incompetent and backward and probably engaging in stalling tactics, diminishing the German car brands, making the feel about them a lot less high tech and a lot more old school and boring and desperate and dying.

Tesla's mission statement is to save the planet and its species. Not destroy it to make a faster profit.

The headline is click-baitey though. Tesla will simply get the permit to move the bats and do so. I don't see how animal protection laws are "crazy".

 

[Artful Dodger]

It has been suggested US Navy on maneuvres shot down an Air France plane over Long Island Sound. Or, US navy shoots down regularly scheduled commercial flight from Iran, or....

OT:

TWA800 was before the Atlanta Olymics in July 1996. That was the suppected shootdn.

The post-9/11 incident was AA587 Jamaica Bay, Queens, NYC a few weeks after 9/11. That's why you STILL have to take your shoes off when you go thru Arpt Security (suspected shoe bmb)

We now return you to your regularly scheduled episode of Kabuki Theatre

/OT

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock Real Time Stock Quotes

$471.05 +1.99 0.42%
as of 06:41 EST
*Real-Time - data as of 1/8/2020

MARGIN CALLS CONTINUE...

 

[Fact Checking]

So we are roughly 3.3% up since the night time low (452.51$) due to Iran retaliation against Cinamon Hitlers temper tantrum.
Could have been a prettier premarket, but oh well...

View attachment 497860

In fact the current premarket TSLA price action is again back to the recent margin call-ish trades on relatively high volume, it just touched $471.05, close to a new all time high. The "Iran dip" from $467 to $452 has been turned around into a rise.

Nasdaq futures are just ~0.2% away from new all time highs as well.

 

[avoigt]

Pre Market now above $470

This is a signal of exceptional strength given bombs and uncertainty about a war in middle east. We will learn how much of this is shares moving from weak into strong hands, algos trading, positioning for S&P inclusion or shorts covering but what is obvious is that the way Tesla is discussed did change dramatically. Many realize now you cannot evaluate Tesla based on standard KPIs and I hope that this realization remains.

All the so called Analysts and Naysayer look now pretty bad as what bulls like Ark or Ron did say all the time happened.

I learned that emotions in trading is never good so regardless if we are down at $180 like a few months ago or now at $470 it best to avoid too much of it as its not helpful to see clear.

A lot can happen from here and only one is certain for me which is it won't be low volatility. We don't have enough solid information about shorts to really understand how long this will run and squeeze.

Right now I believe short term the market wants to see $500 in any case.

 

[Jack6591]

OPEC - Wikipedia

The best OPEC strategy is to advance renewable energy and sustainable transportation. I’m buying TSLA.

 

[Fact Checking]

In fact the current premarket TSLA price action is again back to the recent margin call-ish trades on relatively high volume, it just touched $471.05, close to a new all time high. The "Iran dip" from $467 to $452 has been turned around into a rise.

Nasdaq futures are just ~0.2% away from new all time highs as well.

TSLA meanwhile just set a new all-time-high in the premarket, on a strong burst of volume, the new ATH is $472.20.

 

[LN1_Casey]

against Cinamon Hitlers temper tantrum.

Hahahaha. xD Haven't heard that before, but I approve.

German stock is looking promising after the dip from this morning.

 

[Fact Checking]

Not sure whether this Twitter rumor from yesterday got posted already:

Mickey Du on Twitter

"Visited 2 $TSLA China stores. According to reps, Tesla doing 1000+ DAILY orders across China after recent price decrease of SR+ to sub 300k RMB after subsidies. China, world’s largest auto market already supply constrained + exciting 2H 2020 ahead as GF3 Shanghai ramps production"​

So it appears many Tesla buyers expected a price drop, and once it was delivered they pulled the trigger.

(But beware the triple layers of hearsay before assuming anything about Q1 demand. )

 

[fdutra1]

TSLA meanwhile just set a new all-time-high in the premarket, on a strong burst of volume, the new ATH is $472.20.

Also busted through BB resistance,,, wow!