Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chocochip]

Forest ants? We’re capturing forest ants to relocate them? ANTS?! Relocate them where? To the other side of the road?

You must be thinking of chicken...

 

[JBRR]

https://www.viggo.com/
New taxi company in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Only Tesla's.
Cab driver informed me they have around 40 cars at the moment.

I expect much more of this as the economics of Tesla only cab fleets becomes clear.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla's mission statement is to save the planet and its species. Not destroy it to make a faster profit.

The headline is click-baitey though. Tesla will simply get the permit to move the bats and do so. I don't see how animal protection laws are "crazy".

Did you read the article? It’s not just about bats. There actually is some serious crazy talk in it.

 

[Vad42]

400 effing 78

As recent as early December I was hoping we will see five-0-0 by end of 2020. Now it looks likely to happen in January. And I have no idea where it will be by end of the year.

I just wish I bought more...

 

[guidooo]

Did you read the article? It’s not just about bats. There actually is some serious crazy talk in it.

I did. Doesn't worry me. But hey, i live in a country where it's accepted that people can vote for a political party with ecocentric ethics. And people, including me, do vote for it. Party for the Animals

 

[dgodfrey]

Overheard at the Flat Earthers Luncheon yesterday outside Cleveland.

Lionel Snodgrass: I don't think letting the TSLAQ guys into the club was such a good idea. They take batshit crazy to a new level. I mean we started this thing just for attention but these guys really believe that crap.

Paul Weisenheimer: I tend to agree. My mom called the other day concerned that if they get on the board at next months elections, we could have another Scientology disaster. We know how bad that backfired.

Lionel: I heard that the Climate Deniers were struggling for members at open enrollment and were now giving out coupons for Chick-fil-a and Hobby Lobby, valid only on Sundays. You in?

 

[mars_or_bust]

Then why does the link below mentions 3 German Unicorns ? It even doesn't date back as far as WWII.

10 European startups which recently reached unicorn status | EU-Startups

2, 3, it is really really pathetic. Portugal apparently has more.... A country with the indisputable German talent should have at least 20, 30.

 

[Prunesquallor]

As recent as early December I was hoping we will see five-0-0 by end of 2020. Now it looks likely to happen in January. And I have no idea where it will be by end of the year.

I just wish I bought more...

The last dry powder I had was 20 Dec ($410/shr). This is killing me.

 

[Lessmog]

Yes it's an old Volvo. Not mine but I always liked the look. And it looks like a prehistoric Model X.

I think it's a PV 144 but it may be a 544. I'm not sure. Probably from the 50s.

Def a 544. 60s, I'd say.

 

[lklundin]

This may not be politically correct, and I am saying this with all due respect regarding the all important mating preferences of speckled bats and fornicating migrating birds or whatever, but this is more than silly, and one of the reasons the EU is stuck going nowhere, wondering why the US and China, with all their flaws, are kicking their ass in technology and economy.

Tesla’s run-in with endangered bats could delay plans for Gigafactory 4

The EU is so crazy that this may not even be dirty tricks by VW or the other pre extinction dinosaurii, but genuine local madness.

I expect that such crap will delay GF4 by at least a couple months. Not great, not terrible. But unnecesary. And not surprising.

EDIT: P.R. wise, this delay, if it actually becomes significant (say 3- 6 months) could actually be a great boost for Tesla China sales, and even for Tesla reputation in Europe, as Germany will prove to be incompetent and backward and probably engaging in stalling tactics, diminishing the German car brands, making the feel about them a lot less high tech and a lot more old school and boring and desperate and dying.

Although I am heavily invested in Tesla, I will take German residence over US (where I have lived and worked) and Chinese any time - especially as a family man. It's a democracy that has learned from its unforgivable failures (also with how DDR went) and as such it has reasonable protections for the average citizen (and nature, without which there is nothing). That this democracy has deemed bat relocation to be a priority is something that does not change my opinion.

 

[The Accountant]

So I think Q1'2020 should show a nice year-over-year increase to Q1'2019, which is the fair comparison.

Quarter-to-quarter I'd expect deliveries to drop relative to Q4'2019, with a few headwinds and tailwinds:

• Headwinds:
  • Netherlands might drop temporarily by 15k deliveries. Leasing companies loaded up on Model 3's and won't buy new ones. Private owners might buy new cars but certainly much fewer than in Q4.
  • The seasonal pattern for Q4->Q1 demand is a -20% drop by default. That's a drop of ~20k units, worldwide.
  • Inventories are depleted worldwide and need to be re-filled. Lack of showroom models or test drive units might mean a lost sale, etc.
• Tailwinds:
  • The UK BIK surge might be big in March, but it's unclear to what extent Tesla is willing to roll the dice and make 10k-20k UK version Model 3's they couldn't be sending elsewhere if they are not delivered in Q1.
  • Tesla clearly starved some other European markets like Norway in Q4, so those might absorb a few thousand more units over their Q4 levels.
  • The FCA ZEV deal could earn some significant extra income at 100% profit margins, even if Q1 deliveries drop. Maybe Tesla will drop a few hints about that in the Q4 conference call, when they provide 2020 guidance?
  • China GF3 might deliver 10k-25k units, depending on the speed of the ramp-up, and depending on how much disruption the Chinese New Year will cause. Officially the holiday is "only" 7 days long, but many factories shut down for a full month. When GF3 was constructed it was a great gesture to Tesla that the construction firms worked even during the Chinese New Year - this should not be expected of Tesla employee line workers.
    • To estimate Q1 GF3 production: assuming all work stops from January 25 to February 1:
    • View attachment 497874
    • I'd expect the second shift to not be started until February, and then it will take time to train the workers and for them to ramp up. So effective workdays would be 18 days in January, 1-shift, 10 1-shift days in February, 10 2-shift days in February and 20 2-shift days in March (to leave time to deliver units). If a single shift can make about 200 cars sustained, then this is a GF3 production baseline of up to 18k units.
  • South Korea is a wildcard: generous incentives but not much delivery throughput by Tesla yet. Unclear whether they'd send a full ship and hope to deliver all units.

Overall I'd be very happy with Q3 level deliveries in Q1 (97k units), but lower deliveries down to 80k are entirely possible as well, depending on how the forces above play out. We'll see as the quarter progresses, China in particular appears to be very rumor-happy, so we'll get various hints I believe.

One potential tailwind to add- the recognition of Deferred Revenue related to FSD if there is an update in Q1 for the ability to recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.

 

[jerry33]

everything is relative, but in many countries gasoline is priced a lot higher than $4 a gallon already and EVs have yet to be adopted in any significance. Might be different in the US of course, but in general it’s purchase price incentives and/or penalties on ICE cars that lead to large EV adoption.

Most countries are not as wholly dependent upon cars as the U.S. and Canada. Distances are shorter, transit is better. I recall when we complained about tire life being 9K miles on a certain car, the response (from Europe HQ) was that 9K wasn't a particular problem, because it was still about three year's average driving.

 

[winfield100]

Not Karen, not Elon either.

OT, way OT
@3lon4mars
Then please, respectfully, join the group that is occasionally sending Karen cash via PayPal for reforestation of her homestead in Iceland.
A Nobel project, done by hand, documented on TMC, a delightful exercise to witness
Edit
Sequestering carbon by land restoration and reforestation in Iceland

 

[Lessmog]

Looks like an Opel Zafira started another garage fire too in Cork back in September:

Up to 200 cars remain trapped at Cork shopping centre after major fire | Newstalk

Opel is now owned by GM. Should this (same) model have been recalled, and if so, will GM be liable for burning several hundreds of other mark cars as well as totalling two extensive building structures (so far)?

Hmm, maybe go short GM? (as well as BMW)

 

[SunCatcher]

Umm, HELLO?! BTW: It's spelled "Bankwupt".

Too long; didn't watch? The answer is yes.

 

[jeewee3000]

Did you read the article? It’s not just about bats. There actually is some serious crazy talk in it.

As another poster also posted, I also did indeed read the article.

Not saying I agree with bureaucracy but I do agree with EU policies in the sense that owning property does not grant you unlimited rights regarding that property. (This is counter intuitive, I know, but some regulations, for example environmental laws, take priority over your ownership)

The article is based on very little substance, so please take the 'facts' presented there with a grain of salt. For all we know the purchase agreement contained clauses regarding the environmental laws. (In neighbouring country Belgium such clauses are mandatory for example).

So no, not crazy talk. Just very different from U.S. culture.

 

[Jack6591]

Tesla is positioned to leverage the world’s largest car market.


Top 20 Car Sales by Country Last Year
Rank Country Cars Sold Year ↑↓% Top Brands
1. China 23,754,875 ↓ 2% General Motors 3,701,112
Volkswagen 3,130,233
Honda 1,488,322
2. United States 17,175,893 ↑↓ = Even General Motors 2,944,117
Toyota 2,523,124
Ford 2,392,889
3. Japan 5,271,985 ↑↓ Toyota 1,509,323
Honda 746,387
Suzuki 714,657
4. Germany 3,436,112 ↑↓ Volkswagen 644,210
Mercedes 319,265
BMW 264,984
5. India 3,382,453 ↑ 5% Maruti Suzuki 1,733,113
Hyundai 709,162
Tata 687,102
6. France 2,633,231 ↑ 3% Renault 406,234
Peugeot 389,777
Citroen 213,822
7. Brazil 2,567,254 ↑ 15% Fiat Chrysler 435,112
General Motors 433,180
Volkswagen 367,453
8. United Kingdom 2,366,976 ↓ 7% Ford 382,429
Volkswagen 245,767
Vauxhall 206,109
9. Canada 1,985,053 ↓ 3% Ford 297,894
GM 288,324
FCA 225,108
10. Italy 1,909,997 ↓ 3% Fiat Chrysler 499,675
Volkswagen 162,887
Ford 130,341
11. Russia 1,800,602 ↑ 13% Lada 360,333
Kia 226,980
Hyundai 178,342
12. South Korea 1,545,597 ↑↓ Hyundai 721,112
Kia 532,423
Ssangyong 109,132
13. Mexico 1,421,395 ↓ 7% Nissan 312,132
GM 236,115
VW 196,287
14. Spain 1,322,112 ↑ 7% Seat 107,367
VW 103,122
Peugeot 99,102
15. Australia 1,153,214 ↓ 3% Toyota 217,098
Mazda 111,302
Hyundai 94,198
16. Indonesia 1,151,309 ↑ 3% Toyota 352,287
Daihatsu 202,867
Honda 162,201
17. Thailand 1,039,126 ↑ 19% Toyota 315,122
Isuzu 178,453
Honda 128,453
18. Iran 959,322 ↓ 36% Peugeot (TBD)
Saipa
Khodro
19. Argentina 802,992 ↓ 11% VW 119,433
Renault 114,321
GM 101,395
20. Turkey 620,943 ↓ 35% FCA 86,102
Renault 70,116
Ford 66,983

 

[Fact Checking]

Additionally, other social media sources are saying 2020Q1 is already sold out.

What's the source for that?

 

[Lessmog]

Machine translated section: "Fjellberg states that if the battery packs in the electric cars start to burn, the extinguishing work will be even more demanding. Then it will not be possible to extinguish with water."

I thought water was exactly what you were supposed to use on lithium-ion fires. Am I wrong? Again?

Yes, water but in copious amounts. Also, be careful putting water on oil fires.
(Not a firefighter, but my hairdresser is married to a part time one )

 

[X Fan]

So we are roughly 3.3% up since the night time low (452.51$) due to Iran retaliation against Cinamon Hitlers temper tantrum.
Could have been a prettier premarket, but oh well...

View attachment 497860

99% of your post makes sense but calling someone "Hitler" in a post is highly distasteful. Hitler, Stalin, Mao are murderers of the highest order and shouldn't be easily assigned.