Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Earlier, I looked at the stock price and went, "Wow! $535, that's high!" before realizing it was a fall from $547. Not that $535 (or the close of $537.92) is bad, it's just that $TSLA has climbed so fast I'm no longer calibrated.

$TSLA, when closing +2.49% with a new all time high feels like a loss

Ha, yesterday, I told the wife we were trading in 335 to 345 all day - it has changed so quickly

TBH, 6 months back, if we'd been offered 350 early January, we probably would have taken it, but here we are!

 

[KarenRei]

This just in: Tesla China has asked publicly for input from China designers and non-designers to design a "made in China" Tesla model with Chinese design elements:

特拉风T☰SLA mania on Twitter

View attachment 500388​

Interesting is the third picture they provided:

Which looks like a small form factor hatchback - broadly along the lines of my speculation here:



Note that I've edited my original comment from "Model 4" to "Model 1": four is an unlucky number in Chinese culture.

Alternatively they might also name it "Model 7" - or not use any numbering at all.

Or no numbering.

But more to the point... that looks like a hatchback to you? Also, there's no point to a design competition where the end result is supposed to look like the cover art on the design competition invitation

 

[Tslynk67]

So, a literal case of “the more cars they make, the more money they lose”!

One way to double their deliveries!

 

[Fact Checking]

But more to the point... that looks like a hatchback to you? Also, there's no point to a design competition where the end result is supposed to look like the cover art on the design competition invitation

If you look at the wheel size proportion it seems to be a "small form factor" vehicle, and if that is true then it has to be a hatchback or mini-SUV with a hatch.

Edit, I've overlaid the Model Y on top of the "Model 1", matching the size of the rear wheels:

(Note that front wheels are off due to different perspective - this is the closest I found.)

It's IMO pretty obvious from this overlay too that the proposed vehicle is significantly smaller, even if it has the 18" wheel size of a Model Y, which small cars typically don't: for example the Peugeot 108 default trim is 15" ...

Not a sedan in any case.

Anyway, while I wouldn't read too much into a teaser, I still think it's pretty obvious that they are thinking of a smaller, less expensive, higher volume vehicle class - just like economics and the physics of city life is dictating it in China and Europe.

(But maybe I'm wrong about the small form factor too, not just the numbering scheme or the lack of it.)

 

[Silentk]

Good to hear finally someone from the Analysts community acknowledging he has been wrong about Tesla

Refreshing honesty for a change. “Wish I hadn’t downgraded it”

“Tesla is the only way to play electric vehicles right now”

 

[KarenRei]

Ha, yesterday, I told the wife we were trading in 335 to 345 all day - it has changed so quickly

TBH, 6 months back, if we'd been offered 350 early January, we probably would have taken it, but here we are!

You know that you can make deals related to that (selling calls), right? E.g. six months ago you actually could have made an agreement to be given free cash, yours to keep regardless of what happens with the stock, in exchange for giving someone the right to buy your stock at $350 in January. You can do the exact same sort of deal now, too. For the same ratio of current-price-to-future price (e.g. the right to buy your shares for $750 in July), people will pay you $21,18 per share (plus the $750 at that date if the stock exceeds that point). The $21,18 being yours to keep whether the stock hits $750 or not.

That's not a recommendation for taking such an option, of course; it's your call based on where you think the stock is headed, and I personally wouldn't go for that (without using the income to buy calls at a lower strike, at least ) Contrarily, if you were scared at current prices, you could use that "free $21,18" to insure your shares against going below ~$395 for the next six months, or $485 for the next month.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Europe sold out of S/X in early December of last year. All remaining S/X orders got pushed off to Q1, just like the 3s did.

I'm quite pleased by how much S/X demand has been steadily rising.

Indeed. As we are collecting official registration data throughout Europe, some countries report Tesla total sales first and then put out detailed, per model reports later. For that interim period we normally load the total sales data and there is a forumla that estimates the SX# split.

What I`ve found this time around is that as I go back to enter the more detailed data, our formula has consequently underestimated S/X numbers (and overestimated 3) in each of these cases.S and X have improved beating expectations.

 

[KarenRei]

If you look at the wheel size proportion it seems to be a "small form factor" vehicle, and if that is true then it has to be a hatchback or mini-SUV with a hatch.

Not a sedan in any case.

(But maybe I'm wrong about the small form factor too, not just the numbering scheme or the lack of it.)

As a general rule, what people call "hatchbacks" involves a mostly vertical opening after flow detachment, starting at near the peak roofline of the vehicle. I guess you're using it more broadly to include Model Y-style vehicles (liftbacks) where the "hatch" comprises part of the rear taper?

Regardless, if that is physically small, the roof would have to be hinged well forward in order to get meaningful clearance over the trunk area, if you want the loading advantages of a hatch.

(Also, for the record, that artist's drawing isn't entirely realistic. The curve in the rear gets too steep before truncation. You want flow to detach at an abrupt truncation to minimize drag; having it detach earlier leads to a deeper wake. At the very least the car would need to add a roofline spoiler, unless it's only designed for low-speed operation)

 

[EVMeister]

Anyway, while I wouldn't read too much into a teaser, I still think it's pretty obvious that they are thinking of a smaller, less expensive, higher volume vehicle class.

With the smaller vehicle in mind, could it not be called the Model C? For "China" or "Compact". Not sure that traslates well in the Chinese market, but seems to fit.

 

[Fact Checking]

As a general rule, what people call "hatchbacks" involves a mostly vertical opening after flow detachment, starting at near the peak roofline of the vehicle. I guess you're using it more broadly to include Model Y-style vehicles (liftbacks) where the "hatch" comprises part of the rear taper?

Regardless, if that is physically small, the roof would have to be hinged well forward in order to get meaningful clearance over the trunk area, if you want the loading advantages of a hatch.

(Also, for the record, that artist's drawing isn't entirely realistic. The curve in the rear gets too steep before truncation. You want flow to detach at an abrupt truncation to minimize drag; having it detach earlier leads to a deeper wake. At the very least the car would need to add a roofline spoiler, unless it's only designed for low-speed operation)

No big disagreements from me about the semantics: a "liftback" is an angled hatch in essence, a "hatchback" is a near vertical hatch. Zero chance that Tesla would do anything non-aerodynamic, so zero chance for a classic hatchback.

Anyway, the important distinction is that it's an apparently small, short city car with no boot hanging out the back of the car.

 

[Tslynk67]

Google just gave me a heart attack. (I checked, it's not real and has been fixed)

View attachment 500223

It wasn't a Google glitch - I saw the same this morning on CNBC, but here they're indicating it's the market close. Weird how it has been interpreted differently by the two:

 

[Fact Checking]

As a general rule, what people call "hatchbacks" involves a mostly vertical opening after flow detachment, starting at near the peak roofline of the vehicle. I guess you're using it more broadly to include Model Y-style vehicles (liftbacks) where the "hatch" comprises part of the rear taper?

Not actually true - the first ever "hatchback", the 1938 Citroën 11CV Commerciale had a ~65° rear opening:

In some English speaking regions the rather stupid and arbitrary "liftback" distinction was never widely accepted into popular language, they are calling them all hatchbacks.

For example if you look for the "top 10 hatchbacks" on UK websites, you will get 10 cars with very non-vertical rear openings:

Top 10 Best Hatchbacks 2020 | Autocar

Not one of these 10 hatchbacks has a "near vertical opening after flow detachment" I believe.

Again, let's please not get hung up over "hatchback" versus "liftback" semantics, I think you knew exactly what I meant, and you pointlessly derailed the argument into interesting but even more off topic directions.

 

[Tslynk67]

On a serious note maybe colour coding would work. So off topic posts in orange for example, and on topic posts in black.

It would be very easy to skip all the off-topic fun stuff and only read the important stuff.

I think that's actually a pretty smart idea, but good luck enforcing it.


Thx @Lycanthrope . Maybe if the mods coloured all off-topics posts to orange instead of moving them, people would get used to it?

I try to read every single post, but if I could scroll past the "fun" ones when in a rush it would be immensely valuable - to me and many others I think.

MODS?

I think if enough start doing it, it might become the norm.

Now to decide what's OT and what's OT...

I think this is OT...

 

[ev-enthusiast]

What's the weather forecast for Shortsville right now?

 

[KarenRei]

Not actually true - the first ever "hatchback", the 1938 Citroën 11CV Commerciale had a ~65° rear opening:

In some English speaking regions the rather stupid and arbitrary "liftback" distinction was never widely accepted into popular language, they are calling them all hatchbacks.

For example if you look for the "top 10 hatchbacks" on UK websites, you will get 10 cars with very non-vertical rear openings:

Top 10 Best Hatchbacks 2020 | Autocar

View attachment 500396​

Not one of these 10 hatchbacks has a "near vertical opening after flow detachment" I believe.

Again, let's please not get hung up over "hatchback" versus "liftback" semantics, I think you knew exactly what I meant, and you pointlessly derailed the argument into interesting but even more off topic directions.

No. When people were talking about hatchbacks the other day, and I said that I think it's unlikely Tesla would do a hatchback soon (more likely later as battery prices drop and energy and power densities rise), my interpretation was precisely of hatchbacks. Not liftbacks. When people refer to a hatchback, they generally refer to a vehicle with a steep rear hatch. Even your example of the 1938 Citroën 11CV has a steep rear hatch, so I'm not sure what you were trying to show by bringing it up.

Until I get my Model 3, I'm still stuck driving my Gen1 Honda Insight, a liftback. I've never in the entire time I've owned it heard anyone refer to it as a hatchback.

Here's the rear ends of the vehicles in your linked article:

Ford Focus: steep, after flow separation

Volkswagen Golf: steep, after flow separation:

Seat Leon: Steep, after flow separation

BMW 1-Series: Steep, after flow separation:

Mazda 3: Steep, after flow separation:

Kia Ceed: Steep, after flow separation:

Honda Civic Hatchback: Probably the least steep of the bunch, but still too steep, e.g. post flow-separation.

Audi A3 Sportback: Steep, after flow separation

Mercedes A-Class: Steep, after flow separation

Vauxhall Astra: Steep, after flow separation:

Not one of them is a liftback.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Yesterday Deutsche Bank raised their PT to $455 maintaining their Hold rating.
Analyst Emmanuel Rosner [Tesla] "truly seems to be currently firing on all cylinders," with the recent start of China production, a large step-up in regulatory credit revenue from January 2020 thanks to the deal with FCA, start of production of Model Y in the near-term and the building of a factory in Europe (link)

 

[Christine69420]

Aston Martin shelves production plans for Rapide E electric saloon

However, a source close to the firm has told Autocar it will now become a research project used to further Aston’s broader electrification programme, with no intention of producing customer cars. It’s not clear yet how many orders of the model were taken, or whether refunds will have to be issued.

Aston Martin shelves production plans for Rapide E electric saloon | Autocar

 

[RobStark]

 

[Tslynk67]

Let's park @ $570

I suppose it’s $500 week, so ok, Monday we can shift to the $6xx range

 

[Fact Checking]

When people refer to a hatchback, they generally refer to a vehicle with a steep rear hatch. Even your example of the 1938 Citroën 11CV has a steep rear hatch, so I'm not sure what you were trying to show by bringing it up.

Sorry, this is getting ridiculous. This is what you wrote and which I disagreed with:

As a general rule, what people call "hatchbacks" involves a mostly vertical opening after flow detachment, starting at near the peak roofline of the vehicle. I guess you're using it more broadly to include Model Y-style vehicles (liftbacks) where the "hatch" comprises part of the rear taper?

No, neither of those cars has a "mostly vertical opening starting at near the peak roof-line of the vehicle", and certainly not the Citroën 11CV, unless you consider 65° "mostly vertical".

The Honda Civic example you cited is particularly ridiculous:

Yes, it has a vertical part as pretty much any vehicle that has a rear, and no, it's nowhere near a mostly vertical opening starting at the "peak roofline" of the vehicle - half of it is angled, half of it mostly vertical.

Nor do 99.9% of people who use the term 'liftback' know what 'flow detachment means', let alone are able to tell where it occurs. They use the poorly defined term "liftback" for a modern hatchback that doesn't look too boxy in the rear. Over 95% of modern hatchbacks are such.

Manufacturers started using the "liftback" term mostly for marketing purposes, to deassociate modern, more streamlined hatchbacks from old hatchbacks that look ugly.

It's not a technical term. If you search for "hatchback vs. liftback" one of the top hits is going to be this:

Difference between a liftback and hatchback

"They are one of the same 'Liftback' was the USA/Far East name for the 'hatchback' (European name) basically."​

Which is what I was trying to stress from the very beginning: it's semantics and cultural. It doesn't matter, and nobody uses the flow detachment definition in any case ...

I do agree that whatever hatchback/liftback Tesla is going to design, it will have an excellent Cd with minimal flow detachment.