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Anyway, while I wouldn't read too much into a teaser, I still think it's pretty obvious that they are thinking of a smaller, less expensive, higher volume vehicle class - just like economics and the physics of city life is dictating it in China and Europe.
(But maybe I'm wrong about the small form factor too, not just the numbering scheme or the lack of it.)
I rarely disagree with your logic, but this is one of those rare times, and only on implications of smaller size.
The smaller size vehicles often have very fully equipped versions that sell for very premium prices. Examples include the 'hot hatch' category and the 'compact lux' models typically sell for ~0-50% more than do the base models, and also tend to have higher option take rates also. Those high-spec models typically account for 13-30% of unit volume, depending on the market. They also tend to represent most of the gross margin, and in the several cases that I have actually seen internal numbers they were >100% of gm. (Note: my direct knowledge is from work done on behalf of three different large auto manufacturers a long time ago. Thus, if the relative market composition has changed I could be wrong. All the evidence I see suggests these relationships are constant, specifically including Tesla).
For Tesla the specifics (e.g. FSD, connectivity, Supercharging, colors, wheels, interiors) all support that thesis with take rates producing huge gm improvements.
The smaller the form factor the more consequential the option takeup and premium version takeup become). For some reason almost everyone thinks small cars equal low gm's. 'T'ain't' necessarily true! That should be obvious to all of us as we reflect on the impact of those options above as one goes to smaller, cheaper form factors.
In other words, the impact of option takeup on gross margin tends to be inversely related to the base price of the model in question.
That the upcoming smaller models will end out with essentially Model 3-like gross margins. As new models proliferate using the same 'skateboard' gm will increase for all. The same effect will accrue as GF-1, GF-3, GF-4 and others enter production. As we all know now, capital efficiency is rising too, so incremental capex allocations per vehicle will steadily decrease, thus providing another virtuous cycle.
Somehow I believe that the recent dramatic increase in large buyers reflects the growing understanding that Tesla has reached critical mass and that pricing competitively with ICE is now happening while margins continue to rise.
That, coupled with what we are learning now about Tesla Energy distributed grid services etc all easily support the most aggressive analyst estimates. It seems ridiculous to imagine $650 coming soon, but think about it.
We think we're bulls while we're missing the actual achievements before our eyes. Anyway it seems so to me.
) Contrarily, if you were scared at current prices, you could use that "free $21,18" to insure your shares against going below ~$395 for the next six months, or $485 for the next month.
