Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

Come on baby. All the way back to green!!!

If it goes green I’ll twerk in short shorts in Times Square and video it. Not an advice

 

[avoigt]

Since yesterday $960 we have gone now done $200 to $760 which is an about 20% correction.

Looks like a bounce back now.

Many did wait for lower levels to grab some from the table.

 

[Alphacrux]

Exchanged ARKK for TSLA at $753/share.
Bought +70 shares at prices from $760 to $820.
Good enough for now.

 

[thait84]

Now you tell me! I just may have prematurely blown my whole load!

Just wait a little bit and you'll be good to go

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Picked up another 40 shares today at about 760. I still have margin handy if something happens and I need to buy more but I have some scrub stocks laying around (5% gainers boo) to sell if needed to cover anything crazy.

Same here, bought some stock from call options gains

 

[KarenRei]

I’m hoping it stays low (or lower) for tomorrow.

I bought back the upper end of one call-spread for 44% of what I sold it for yesterday... we so nearly hit my price for buying back a second one But at least I got the one. I've got a sell order for a higher strike at the same price I re-bought it for today, in case we get a double dip.

 

[bhtooefr]

Well, here's what Robinhood's doing now:

View attachment 508150

Aha, weak longs getting flushed out.

Excellent.

Short squeeze still on.

 

[JusRelax]

Aha, weak longs getting flushed out.

Excellent.

Short squeeze still on.

When 'Should I' on google auto-populates buying tesla stock as it's most likely auto-complete, there will be plenty of weak longs. Good riddance.

 

[Fact Checking]

As an aside from today's market action (a correction which I think we all knew was inevitable at some point), and since I've been greatly disappointed with the terribly uninformative way in which the various coronavirus data pages have presented the information, I decided to generate my own graphs trying to get a sense of how effective the containment efforts for the virus have been - that is, new cases by location on each day.

View attachment 508144

Caveat 1: I had to remove all "zero" values because the vast majority of them were cases where a particular data source didn't update between datasets. But it's possible that in some of the low incidence rate areas, there were legitimate cases of zero new cases diagnosed that the graph leaves out.

Caveat 2: These graphs plot total cases, but cases per capita might be a more informative metric.

It's really clear from this how much this is very much a "Wuhan coronavirus" problem at present, and how China has effectively - thusfar at least - managed to contain it in that province (Hubei). It's tried to break out in Zhejiang and Guangdong, but each time the number of cases has gone back down.

That said, they clearly have a lot of work ahead of them in Hubei. I imagine that they're probably focused on compartmentalizing the province and trying to clear it section by section. I also imagine that they'll probably start letting life get back to normal in other provinces, but dialing the pressure back up whenever / wherever an outbreak springs up - compartmentalization rather than broad, sweeping actions.

Just my take, from looking at the data.

(For what it matters: Shanghai borders Zhejiang and Jiangxi)

ED: I just realized that the base spreadsheet I was generating these from only goes up to 2 February :Þ If anyone has a spreadsheet of more recent data, let me know.

Fantastic graph.

You can grab the best, most uptodate data from here:

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline​

They also include source links - but those are usually Chinese.

Note that the latest day, February 5 in this case, is updated live - i.e. provinces that have not reported yet will be listed with yesterday's data - which can be confusing.

 

[StealthP3D]

Getting on a plane. Can't wait to land and be excited for the green!!!

You're landing in Seattle?

 

[KarenRei]

Fantastic graph.

You can grab the best, most uptodate data from here:

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline​

They also include source links - but those are usually Chinese.

Note that the latest day, February 5 in this case, is updated live - i.e. provinces that have not reported yet will be listed with yesterday's data - which can be confusing.

Thanks! I'll try to remember to redo the graph this evening. Or maybe even make an auto-updating version.

It's always seemed clear to me that "total number of cases" is an irrelevant metric. It's new cases that we want to track. E.g., where's it breaking out? Where's it under control?

 

[JusRelax]

Since yesterday $960 we have gone now done $200 to $760 which is an about 20% correction.

Looks like a bounce back now.

Many did wait for lower levels to grab some from the table.

Smart money's now buying in after stupid money [weak longs] sold.

 

[Mich]

anyone for a green close today?

 

[thait84]

You're landing in Seattle?

In SF today. Still long and strong though. I guess I'll be productive today since I won't constantly be refreshing the browser to see my paper gains.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Elon said retail investors knew the company better than did institutional analysts. He did not actually say we knew the company well. At this point I would not sell a share but I certainly will if the dip continues a bit more.

Everyone has a different portfolio, but I have enough dry powder that I’ll be buying more as it continues to dip.

Now that the likely short squeeze is over, we are getting back to normal price discovery.

Positive catalysts coming up are the battery day, and Model Y deliveries. Negative catalysts are fewer Chinese deliveries than expected due to the virus and possible teething troubles at the Chinese factory (although we haven’t seen any evidence of that yet, right?).

Q1 demand worldwide is seasonally soft, but will Tesla be able to bridge that gap with Model Y? So far we haven’t heard about any significant Model Y delivery numbers. Historically, Tesla takes, what 2 or 3 months after they show us a single production vehicle before volume starts in earnest. What’s it going to be like this time? All eyes will be on deliveries this quarter. So Q1 numbers have the potential to be soft Q-Q, but still great Y-Y. How will the market react to that?

Sounds like Elon is readying a surprise second US Giga announcement. Analysts will no doubt freak out on that, worrying about cash drain, but it is a long term very positive development. Shows strength.

What else am I missing about short term catalysts?

 

[StealthP3D]

When 'Should I' on google auto-populates buying tesla stock as it's most likely auto-complete, there will be plenty of weak longs. Good riddance.

That's actually very interesting (and the same here). All I need to type on Google is "should" and the first auto-suggestion is "Should I buy Tesla stock?". However, when my wife does the same thing on her computer "Tesla" is nowhere to be found! The first thing is "Should I get bangs", LOL!

 

[larmor]

...I'm just a user? I think you might want to ask the fine folks that made the dashboard and api at Robinhood than a random member of the TSLA investor forum. My 2 cents. Thanks!

Look forward to hearing back on what feedback you get!

Surrounded by algobots... Not bad to be just a user...
Glow Tron Legacy GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

 

[SO16]

Now you tell me! I just may have prematurely blown my whole load!

been my problem for years. Ugh

 

[Kuhz]

With my luck bad luck, I even shorted a few shares for the greater good. Kind of worked, I lost $16

 

[SOULPEDL]

I actually sold 50 shares yesterday at $913 and was about to sell 50 more. The plan was to sell 100 and buy one 300 strike price call after a cooling off period, and pocket essentially half that sale for essentially the same upside potential. I haven't owned an option for a couple years, but my brother was catching up to me quick. And watching all of you trying to comprehend your newly found millionaire status... I felt like I was in the back of the class graded on a curve.

But then that dip happened end of day and I didn't get to sell the second 50, so I took pause... (I haven't sold any since 50 shares at $600 and a few prior in the 300's. Everyone called me an idiot not selling at $500, lol).

The smart thing (I'm sure you're thinking it) would be to buy those 50 back or leverage... but I'm 59.486 years old today. Now I like having some cash OFF the table - how else to I buy another Tesla? This is my IRA in its entirety. So I decided not to leverage... just slow and steady as she goes (up). Uber long here, no change, no stops, you're welcome