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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I think so? But I think your math might be wrong, so let me clarify with my own example:
I bought my Jan'22 $500s after Cybertruck dip when SP was $330, and the contracts were trading @ $37. Somebody who wants to make money, and calculates their ROI in $ values, would calculate that if upon expiration the SP is $1,000, the contracts would be worth $50,000, netting him something like a 13-14x ROI. If the SP were to be $2,000 upon expiration, the contracts would be worth $150,000, which would be about 40x ROI.
I, however, don't look at them this way. I calculate that when I bought these contracts, I could've instead used $3,700 to buy ~11 shares of TSLA stock, so that is my cost basis. If SP is $1,000 upon expiration, the contract is worth $50,000, which at that point in time could be used to buy 50 shares, so an about 4.5x ROI. If SP were to further double to $2,000, the contracts are worth $150,000 a piece, which can be used to buy 75 shares of TSLA for $2,000 a piece. A total ROI on the option contract of ~7x in terms of shares.
The time value of the option contracts increases diminishing returns even further, because if SP is $1,000 on Monday, the contract will probably be worth ~$60,000 rather than $50,000, which can be used to buy 60 shares of TSLA stock.
Ultimately, the best solution for peak, is for everyone to have a battery (homes, commercial spaces, industrial spaces) paired with solar, since that provides energy when and where it's needed without transmission or a centralized peaker power generation.
Check out what they have done in Australia already on this front:
Tesla's Virtual Power Plant rescues grid after coal peaker fails, and it's only 2% finished
“Although the Virtual Power Plant is in its early days, it is already demonstrating how it can provide the network support traditionally performed by large conventional generators,”
Then comes 50/50 profit share with homeowners. Robotaxi is to Tesla vehicle owner as TeslaPower is to Tesla solar+storage owner. Or you could say the AirBnB of energy
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WTF how can the Model Y be so efficient compared to the Model 3 even the tires will be wider:
2020 TESLA MODEL Y LOMG RANGE (look at that typo):
19": 255/45 (114mm sidewall, 711mm diameter)
20": 255/40 (102mm sidewall, 711mm diameter)
2020 TESLA MODEL Y PERFORMANCE:
19": 255/45 (114mm sidewall, 711mm diameter)
2020 TESLA MODEL Y PERFORMANCE UPGRADE:
Front: 21" 255/35 (89mm sidewall, 711mm diameter)
Rear: 21" 275/35 (97mm sidewall, 726mm.
I wonder if a new upgraded Model 3 is about to come out?
What we know is that the model Y coming out next month has better range than the model 3 of last year (last official test). We don’t know what the range will be for the model 3 next month. If the range for the model 3 was going up next month, do you think they would tell us now?
My opinion on this subject is that shorts and manipulators will leave TSLA alone only when the polarization of how people value the company dies down. No point in shorting a company where almost everyone agrees on its valuation and folks are fishing for tiny arbitrage opportunities based on how well they understand company's financial statements. TSLA is the opposite, the difference in opinions on valuation and discounted cash flows is so massive that the price can go up or down by 30% and the number of people who disagrees with either valuation will be almost the same
I remember from Autonomy Day Elon stating they get their chips manufactured at Samsung Austin so might be a possible co location deal. Also it looks like Samsung needs some help as they are letting people go at that location, so Tesla may obtain favorable conditions in going there. But, all speculation.
It is better than that, some long term shorts probably covered at a big loss, well above the current price.....
New shorts that got in at ATH should take their profits, or risk becoming the next batch of long term shorts...
Q1 2020 could go either way ,,, after that .. well I'm optimistic ..... but we have already established that
Singer3000
Member
China shutdown:
It is under appreciated internationally how badly run most domestic enterprises are and how hand-to-mouth they tend to be from a cashflow perspective.
I’ve seen examples of industrial companies with enterprise values in the region of half to a billion dollars go bust because of similar length shutdowns (sudden pollution control measures surrounding internationally high profile events in Beijing).
It is the norm for companies of this size to juggle far too many projects at once, with long term assets almost always funded by short term finance rather than equity or long term (or project) debt. Future operating cashflow is pledged away to working capital financers, often with very aggressive coverage ratios. And quite ordinarily for far longer than the true working capital cycle, to maximise financial leverage.
So it doesn’t take much of an interruption to production to tip the boat over. Even when production resumes, staff are expected to work without pay and supplier and debt obligations get casually defaulted on, without any credible recovery plan being presented.
You then get to the question of what happens next. If there are any, international working capital financiers normally run for the door, especially so if they’re holding independent security such as domestic bank guarantees.
The domestic banks quite often try to cut funding lines as well but then the communist board places pressure on executive management and a bankers meeting will take place, organised by the local party man.
Ordering the banks to lend new money to repay defaulting facilities is typical for those the local communist party want to save or at least wind down in an orderly way. But this is not ideal from a macro allocative efficiency perspective and slowly suffocates the balance sheets of those banks, preventing them from doing new lending to more efficient enterprises.
The interesting thing about this shut down is that it’s been so widespread, covering not only traditional industrial hubs in the likes of Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Shandong etc but also Shanghai. This is relevant because industrial groups (run by a single family) very often raise additional leverage through Shanghai (and brass plate Hong Kong / Singapore) trading companies, which may formally be unrelated to the wider group but held through trust or family members / business connections, wrapping their fates together.
With a rub of luck China will open again for business this week. Because it cannot be understated how serious the macro impact could be if the shut down stretches to the end of the month.
None of which changes Tesla’s long term story, but it could end up being significant for global markets and economic conditions more generally if not resolved soon.
It is under appreciated internationally how badly run most domestic enterprises are and how hand-to-mouth they tend to be from a cashflow perspective.
I’ve seen examples of industrial companies with enterprise values in the region of half to a billion dollars go bust because of similar length shutdowns (sudden pollution control measures surrounding internationally high profile events in Beijing).
It is the norm for companies of this size to juggle far too many projects at once, with long term assets almost always funded by short term finance rather than equity or long term (or project) debt. Future operating cashflow is pledged away to working capital financers, often with very aggressive coverage ratios. And quite ordinarily for far longer than the true working capital cycle, to maximise financial leverage.
So it doesn’t take much of an interruption to production to tip the boat over. Even when production resumes, staff are expected to work without pay and supplier and debt obligations get casually defaulted on, without any credible recovery plan being presented.
You then get to the question of what happens next. If there are any, international working capital financiers normally run for the door, especially so if they’re holding independent security such as domestic bank guarantees.
The domestic banks quite often try to cut funding lines as well but then the communist board places pressure on executive management and a bankers meeting will take place, organised by the local party man.
Ordering the banks to lend new money to repay defaulting facilities is typical for those the local communist party want to save or at least wind down in an orderly way. But this is not ideal from a macro allocative efficiency perspective and slowly suffocates the balance sheets of those banks, preventing them from doing new lending to more efficient enterprises.
The interesting thing about this shut down is that it’s been so widespread, covering not only traditional industrial hubs in the likes of Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Shandong etc but also Shanghai. This is relevant because industrial groups (run by a single family) very often raise additional leverage through Shanghai (and brass plate Hong Kong / Singapore) trading companies, which may formally be unrelated to the wider group but held through trust or family members / business connections, wrapping their fates together.
With a rub of luck China will open again for business this week. Because it cannot be understated how serious the macro impact could be if the shut down stretches to the end of the month.
None of which changes Tesla’s long term story, but it could end up being significant for global markets and economic conditions more generally if not resolved soon.
A mod chickening out, now that’s a story. I saw some people have been referring to my decision to liquidate my whole TSLA position after the SP came crashing down from 960. Why that happened? Lately I had been too much focussed on the effect of the stock movements on the financial value of my portfolio, which at the top was up 720k, and a few trading hours later was up 520k. After having ridden the SP down from 300 to 178 in the spring of 2019 I thought I had balls of steel. But my stomach was the problem. It churned. So I bailed.
At first that felt good, the uncertainty was gone. But that didn’t last long. In fact, just a few hours.
I am a true believer in a bright future for Tesla. It will be the #1 technology brand in the world. And likely the most valuable company in the world. I believe the stock value will go up at least 10x and maybe even 20x. But in the heat of the moment I lost sight of all of that.
It felt as if I had betrayed Elon, who several times went through hell to save Tesla. And as if I had betrayed all the steadfast longs here, a lot of whom I’ve started to appreciate over the last years. I visited this thread yesterday, but felt like an outsider. I saw you guys complain and cheer, but couldn’t join you.
I started to watch some videos. Cathy Wood. Ron Baron. David Lee. The ones by David were especially helpful. I started to realize that I had to focus less on the swings and look more at the long trend and focus on the long term goal I’ve set for myself. And if it drops 100-200 points, that doesn’t make much difference because we know it will be 10-bagger or 20-bagger. I got my confidence back. Huge shout out to @DaveT.
So today I decided to get back in. All in. No timing, because in the end it doesn’t really matter if you get in at 735 or 765. Or even 550, 650 or 850. I ended up buying at 745, which does lower the base price for my shares by 15 points to 225 (but that’s no reason to do this again!).
It feels incredibly good to be back in! And even if it goes down, maybe even by a lot, I’ll hang in there. With all of you. Because I know what the goal is and I know we will get there. There will be a lot of dips along the way, but that’s okay.
So I hope you guys will take back the lost son...
I was thinking more along the lines of "Flight_Said_Fred".
Welcome back. We all have to do what's right for our own situation and comfort level. I've never sold a share and keep adding whatever, whenever I can. But I have other "safer" investments so I'm far from all-in on TSLA. It makes it easy to sleep at night knowing that going to zero wouldn't kill me and I have this ace in my pocket that could make retirement that much better.
There's plenty of qualified labor here in Buffalo. The problem has been in ramping up solar roofing.
Seems like with Giga Shanghai and Giga Berlin the goal is to colocate the factory with the engineering design center
I don't want to be a party pooper, but 168% increase compared to when? Compared to Jan'19? That wouldn't be very impressive, because M3 EU deliveries didn't start until Feb'19 if I'm not mistaken.
They might get burned anyway come Monday, if we're really coiled up more than a week ago, which @ReflexFunds' data seems to suggest.
March 2020 start of deliveries according to tesla.com
Smart Europeans: Let's buy TSLA
Dutch People: Let's invest more money in oil
Kind weird though, because the sustainability revolution is going pretty strong over there right now. I wonder if it could've showed up as most traded, because everybody sold their holdings in Shell?
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