Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I edit all the time after posting because I usually type things out too fast.

I'm not an options expert by any measure. From what I gather you have to factor in the greater cost per share, and your time value of money. As a noob I've been looking for what I feel are "cheap" options, out of the money, with an expiration just past big events that I expect the stock to react to. So far so good but it's probably just luck. Options are very expensive right now though so I'm sitting it out for now.
I mostly agree, I often go for the cheaper options but not toto short an expiration date.

But to me the bigger thing is the occasional many-fold increase in value over several months makes interest and opportunity cost of money pretty much irrelevant.
 
What we know is that the model Y coming out next month has better range than the model 3 of last year (last official test). We don’t know what the range will be for the model 3 next month. If the range for the model 3 was going up next month, do you think they would tell us now?
No. I ordered a black nose car and nobody told me that I am going to get the new nose one
 
OT more FSD discussion:

I am very bullish that if Tesla can achieve accurate FSD, it will be very bullish on share price.

I am not confident at all that this is happening soon. Frankly, I have no idea how anyone here can have high confidence, unless you work in computer vision and are familiar with this specific type of problem.

As background, I work in building machine learning / deep learning algorithms that end up running on memory constrained systems.

I was always skeptical about FSD on HW2 in 2016 because of computational limitations. Images weren't even proccessed at full resolution - they were downsampled. Not a good start.

Before HW3 came out, @jimmy_d was excited because some big neural net was uncovered that was used for all cameras and took not one, but 2 full scale images as input.

Exciting yes, but 2 full sized images is a far cry from 6 seconds of video (if say that is what Dojo is going to be training on).

My point being, I think we should be excited that Tesla has the data and possibly getting the computational resources to train a great FSD net. But I don't see any evidence that it would work on HW3.

I am curious about peoples thoughts on why they think differently, other than "Elon said so"
 
Ok took 3 attempts but fidelity transferred shares. Transferring another third of my fidelity account to another broker and again refused by fidelity. Like ground hog day. Fidelity is the worst. Told by rep that their transfer computer defaults to refusal if any calls sold regardless of how many more shares owned than those securing the sold calls

Good to know, will stay away from Fidelity. Ironic name.
 
When tsla hit a high of $790 at 11.26am I decided to close this position as my stochastic was way overbought and the vix was very high.
So this is the result.

Closed tsla 740 put @ 6.25 for 1675$ profit
Closed tsla 770 call @ 38.00 for -1200$ loss
Sold tsla @ 790 for profit 3500$ profit

Net 3975$ profit (not bad for one day of trading ;)

and just now with tsla tanking,

Sold 1 tsla 200207P740 Put for credit of 16.50$ or 1650$

Closed above PUT @ $1.50 today @ 3.55pm when tsla was @ 748
Net profit of $1638.50


and

Sold 1 tsla 200214P740 Put for credit of 51.15 or $5,115

 
WARNING:

my brother bought $1,880 calls. He doesn’t know how calls work. Every time he’s purchased calls he made 10x-100x. Every time he buys a stock it turns to gold. I don’t understand how it works, but that’s just how it is. So there’s my warning
Is "asking for my brother" the new "asking for a friend"?
 
OT more FSD discussion:

I am very bullish that if Tesla can achieve accurate FSD, it will be very bullish on share price.

I am not confident at all that this is happening soon. Frankly, I have no idea how anyone here can have high confidence, unless you work in computer vision and are familiar with this specific type of problem.

As background, I work in building machine learning / deep learning algorithms that end up running on memory constrained systems.

I was always skeptical about FSD on HW2 in 2016 because of computational limitations. Images weren't even proccessed at full resolution - they were downsampled. Not a good start.

Before HW3 came out, @jimmy_d was excited because some big neural net was uncovered that was used for all cameras and took not one, but 2 full scale images as input.

Exciting yes, but 2 full sized images is a far cry from 6 seconds of video (if say that is what Dojo is going to be training on).

My point being, I think we should be excited that Tesla has the data and possibly getting the computational resources to train a great FSD net. But I don't see any evidence that it would work on HW3.

I am curious about peoples thoughts on why they think differently, other than "Elon said so"
I am hopelessly bullish unfortunately. The way I look at it is, which aspect of FSD won't they be able to crack? Also, TSLA doesn't need regulatory FSD to go up massively. If 9/10 journeys were made without the supervising driver taking over, surely the market would see it is just a matter of time.

The EU/UK etc. will be harder due to regulations and smaller roads.
 
Interesting people seems to agree Tuesday was the top, and started to brag about timing it just right.

But, all shorts older than a few weeks are still deeply underwater not covered yet.

So we are saying that’s it, short burn not coming after all?

Or was it meant to burn naked call writers not stock shorts all along?
You mean since Monday! It happened fast.
 
Exiting yes, but 2 full sized images is a far cry from 6 seconds of video (if say that is what Dojo is going to be training on).

My point being, I think we should be excited that Tesla has the data and possibly getting the computational resources to train a great FSD net. But I don't see any evidence that it would work on HW3.

What has changed is mostly that they use 1000 frames to generate labels. For training and inference at runtime they still likely use this style of architecture to run their network, shown at 5:40 into the video

Thus what is recurrent is the top of the hydranet, not all the bottom layers.