Reddit. Photos of a model Y chilling in an employee's driveway. Conceivably it could have been out for testing, but it was presented as an actual delivery
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
So your second reply makes it clear that you weren't joking - and in that case what you wrote is pretty insulting and dumb.
There's plenty of bulls here who sized their positions based on price, the difference is that @Right_Said_Fred shared his decision and the subsequent buy-in with us, which lowered his overall entry price.
Furthermore, the recent TSLA rise created new wealth of such magnitude that is difficult for many to deal with. If your new wealth is now life-changing you might or might not freak out if you see the kind of price manipulation that happened recently. It takes time to get desensitized to new wealth, and this is an entirely natural process.
I'd hate to see this investor forum devolve into a religious sect where the simple act of selling shares to protect family wealth is seen as heresy and is attacked. Asking critical, probing questions should be the job of every Tesla bull.
So just stop this crap, ok?
Last edited:
It sounds like due to the corona virus they are trying to avoid generating crowds. They are instead pushing home deliveries. So the factory-gate delivery push likely won't happen this quarter but hopefully would be viable at the end of the second quarter.View attachment 514218
No, seriously though, I'm really glad to see this, as this time of year has a lot of uncertainty to quarterly estimates; all estimates, including mine, should be treated as highly unreliable at this point. It's always nice as situations start to clarify.
My earlier estimates for GF3@Q1 were, starting with the known 2,5k : 800/wk before the holiday, then 1k : 500/wk across the first two open weeks in February, 1k : 1k/wk for the last week in February, then 1,6k/wk averaged across March, for a total of 11,6k in Q1 (vs. my start-of-quarter estimate of 5-20k, with a median case of 8-9k). I almost wonder if the current estimate is too pessimistic. But I don't think I should upgrade it yet; best to assume that Things Don't Go According To Plan and that "Soon" isn't necessarily "Very Soon".
I expect there to be very little inventory left as well, since they'll be able to do what Fremont does in the US - save the local market (Shanghai) for last, and potentially even doing factory-gate deliveries on the final day.
mickificki
Member
Big. Huge. Go Mondays!
To be clear, the basis on my recommendation to you was 1) You were are fortunate to be where you are right now, given the risk you took. 2) IMO, now that you have a good-sized stake, don't jeopardize it by using margin and options. (especially options). It's like you were strolling through the casino and spotted a seat at a $5 blackjack table. It was just one of things. The table was hot, you won hand after hand after your initial $5 bet and now your sitting there with a $1000. Are you going to keep betting until it's gone (it will be), or are you going to walk out of the casino. Tesla is an investment for the ages, no doubt in my mind. If you continue to use options (gamble), it is probable that you will continue to be right about the direction of the stock but just not necessarily in the right time frame. We here are in an EPIC time with Elon. Best of luck to all.
Tesla will be building and provisioning many new GF in the coming years.
Given their appetite for vertical integration and aims to work up to Alien Dreadnaught
factories, do you think it's likely they may design and build their own assembly robots in a
few more years?
To the production question, the length of a model 3 is 469.4 cm. I’ll be stupid conservative and estimate that same distance between cars, so a total cm for each car of 940 cm. Further conservatism (i.e., line stoppages, shift changes, etc.) would include rounding up to 1000 cm...and this also provides ease of math. /s
Now, working backward from the stated Shanghai production rate of 150,000 per year, with 2 weeks removed for the shut down and ease of math, we get 50 weeks and 3000 per week. Further assumptions are two, 8-hr shifts per day and 7 days of production per week. Each hour would require 26.8 cars built. We’ll use 27. 27 cars times 1000 cm of working footprint gives 27,000 cm per hour. Divide that by 3600 seconds in an hour and you get....drumroll please!
7.5 cm/second
Please....PLEASE....feel free to check the math and assumptions.
One fair observation is that we are already two months into the year. To that I say that we appear to be tending toward way more than a 3000/week production rate. Under promise and over deliver. I think Larry Ellison has introduced Elon to some additional gamesmanship that he learned with Oracle.
Now, working backward from the stated Shanghai production rate of 150,000 per year, with 2 weeks removed for the shut down and ease of math, we get 50 weeks and 3000 per week. Further assumptions are two, 8-hr shifts per day and 7 days of production per week. Each hour would require 26.8 cars built. We’ll use 27. 27 cars times 1000 cm of working footprint gives 27,000 cm per hour. Divide that by 3600 seconds in an hour and you get....drumroll please!
7.5 cm/second
Please....PLEASE....feel free to check the math and assumptions.
One fair observation is that we are already two months into the year. To that I say that we appear to be tending toward way more than a 3000/week production rate. Under promise and over deliver. I think Larry Ellison has introduced Elon to some additional gamesmanship that he learned with Oracle.
Last edited:
@SW2Fiddler WHY ARE YOU "FUNNYING" MY AND MICKI'S ASSERTIONS ABOUT EMPLOYEE DELIVERY? DO YOU KNOW SOMETHING? ARE YOU AN EMPLOYEE W A DELIVERED Y??
A few things that could shape the price action for the near term if they happen.
1. An announcement from Tesla that they have begun employee deliveries of Model Y already and a first public delivery event date. This is highly likely to happen within the next few weeks and maybe even this week.
2. A ratings upgrade from Moody's. This really has to be imminent at this stage.
3. Good or bad news regarding the Corona virus.
4. Giga Texas announcement. Again this could happen at any stage or not at all but worth bearing in mind as an investor.
1. An announcement from Tesla that they have begun employee deliveries of Model Y already and a first public delivery event date. This is highly likely to happen within the next few weeks and maybe even this week.
2. A ratings upgrade from Moody's. This really has to be imminent at this stage.
3. Good or bad news regarding the Corona virus.
4. Giga Texas announcement. Again this could happen at any stage or not at all but worth bearing in mind as an investor.
I can see TSLAQ now: they’re taking a single prototype and parking it in random people’s driveways to make it look like people took delivery!
Is the line moving or the cars move themselves? At the stages shown the cars have their motors, batteries, wheels and tires in them already. they do not pollute either. So it seems that they can move themselves, stop for work steps, get off the line if necessary, etc. If that is the case we cannot do the estimates based on this video.There's a new, longer video about last week's production from the Chinese Central Television:
At several points the assembly lines can be seen moving at about 5-10 cm per second. Can anyone here find a trick to try to estimate the exact speed of those lines, and the distance between the cars? The interesting timestamps are:
0:28, 0:37, 0:42
There's even a time-lapse of several cars being made, but we don't know the time-lapse speedup ratio.
That would give us an idea about peak production capacity: for example if it's moving at 5 cm per second and the cars are 800 centimeters apart, then they'd make 1 new car every 800/5 = 160 seconds, which means a peak production rate of 22.5/hour, 360/day on a double shift and 2,520 cars/week if they were working 7 days a week.
Of course this gives us a peak rate: in a real factory there will be line stoppages, shift changes and other disruptions, so the real sustained production rate will be below the peak. But those video segments all contain the very interesting peak production rate encoded already, and there might be some trick to extract it?
My apologies for the late response. Someone stopped by the door asking if they could buy my trailer, which I was thinking about selling, so I've spent the past hour looking at what might be a fair price based on other trailers for sale online.
Anyway, I assume what happened is that you searched for the listed numbers in the link. The problem is that they're in a graphic:
If you don't trust that those numbers are specifically for the Shanghai plant, I recommend pulling out your phone, running Google Translate in camera-mode, and pointing the camera at the screen while the graphic is up
In the leftmost column, the two entries are "Panasonic battery" and "LG Chem"; in the second column, the part outside of the parentheses is "Tesla", and the part inside is "Shanghai plant".
Last edited:
I am convinced that Jonas did not believe this statement of his and several other statements he made. He is smarter than that.
Yes. Morgan Stanley is, and always has been, a huge investor in GM.
Jonas serves his masters well. We must always remember this is a game for the analysts that has nothing to do with what they really believe. They have their instructions and they deviate at the risk of their careers.
So no, Jonas is not really that stupid. He may even be smart but we will never know based on his stock predictions.
I have marked it disagree for 2 reasons: 1. Tesla investment and casino gambling have similarities, but there is a huge difference; In casinos, the house always wins and customers lose. In the stock market on average investors win and I do believe that in the case of Tesla investment that is very likely remain more so. 2. Everybody has different utility function and we should respect that. I.e. if you went to the casino with your $5 because by next day you had to have the $1,000.000 in order to gain the hand of the princess, while if you would have less than $1M you would be beheaded then it would be very rational to keep playing with $1000. (There is a scene similar to that in the movie Casablanca, that I saw naturally on opening night.)
This, plus the mileage increase, should be monumental!
I found it amusing that Tesla bulls can be Buffet fans at the same time. it's undeniable that the annual letters has some truth, such as the enterprise should not give back all it's earnings to investors, keeping some is good, like duh! Even with accumulation of capitals for future development in his letter, in reality, he has been advocate share buyback for years.
At the same time the whole premises of buffet's investment is to locate companies that can effectively use it's monopoly position or other means to unfairly suppress competition in order to get better return. Innovation is too risky for him.
The whole thing run counter to Tesla's philosophy. And this whole investment strategy, in my opinion, suppress innovation and competition.
might be a good question to ask on a factory tour
.Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
