Gotta start digging for some dry powder..
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Gotta start digging for some dry powder..
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Since we were cheering the stock all the way up, I think we should all spread some good vibes or at least kling to a kind of fatalism. This is not the end!
Prepare for the worst and then keep your head high.
L&S Germany as of now: 552€ - 602 USD
What a sell off.
Prepare for the worst and then keep your head high.
L&S Germany as of now: 552€ - 602 USD
What a sell off.
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wow this doesn't make sense, wish I had more cash available these days.
Yeah me too. Going to have to try to convince the wife to let me get a little more.
Yes, I know. I have my model for calculating Max Pain, but this morning I can't find a reliable source for Open Interest to run the model.
On previous Friday Opricot $TSLA Max Pain was $800, but my model calculated $905.
Edit: Now Opricot $TSLA Max Pain is $770 !
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There's too much blood in the water. I'm going to load up on SPY puts like they are going out of style. If this really goes on and on through the summer, we'll be in a full blown recession. Shorty is getting his revenge too, I actually wonder if there is a bottom or if shorty is going to try and drive TSLA to zero. This is the opportunity shorty has been waiting for and also their last chance to stop Tesla, they will do everything in their power to push TSLA to zero. If I were a dangerous man I would sell my entire TSLA position tomorrow and plow it's entire value into SPY puts.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
It's now back up to $654, which is the level where Nasdaq after-hours trading closed.
Low liquidity trading.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
This forum has been woefully unprepared for this because those of us who do understand are not allowed to post about it.
I see plenty of posts being allowed to stand that displays poor understanding of the situation though.
In the meantime I'm up on my portfolio in the last 7 days because I have been correctly positioned.
bhtooefr
Active Member
You are allowed to post about it, in the topical thread about it.
Why not here? Makes no sense to not being allowed to discuss the single most importantly thing at the moment...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The key concept behind Kabuki Theatre is jo-ha-kyū, which states that dramatic pacing should start slow, speed up, and end quickly.
This concept governs not only the actions of the actors, but also the structure of the play, as well as the structure of a day-long program.
We are the audience in this grand production. Relax and let it happen. The day will end soon enough.
Cheers!
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Sorry, but had to stop reading that paper which is based on false premises:
While the mortality rate can indeed be downward biased if the reporting period is very short, the mortality rate has also been provably upwards biased on basically all the early estimates, due to these factors:
- Milder outcomes spread faster (infecting host can walk around longer and still infect more people), which means that earlier strains are more deadly. Early estimates almost always overestimate mortality.
- Mild cases are significantly under-reported early during the outbreak: the focus is on the seriously ill, and for example overwhelmed health care system in Hubei prioritized by severity. This significantly upward biases the mortality rate too.
- In all well-controlled samples where all members of a demography were tested for the virus, mortality rate has turned out to be much lower than initial estimates:
- In "non-Hubei China", where sources of infections are tracked down with great intensity and there's a lot of excess medical resources, the mortality rate is 0.7%.
- The Diamond Princess cruise ship, the mortality rate is 0.5% even assuming that all currently severe and critical cases succumb, and despite the average age of passengers being about ~10 years higher than average population age (which increases the mortality rate).
- Of the around 1,000 medical personnel who were infected in Hubei, the mortality rate is at 0.3%.
- In "non-Hubei China", where sources of infections are tracked down with great intensity and there's a lot of excess medical resources, the mortality rate is 0.7%.
Several of these case studies have infection and recovery periods of several weeks already and are well past the peak of the epidemic curve, which puts them well beyond the effect of the initial lag between infection time and recovery that the authors mention.
That the authors do not even mention these factors that significantly upward bias mortality rate is a serious methodological error.
If the authors of the paper were able to make such a simplistic and false point, without any of the three authors noticing, it's hard to take any of their remaining arguments seriously.
None of the authors are epidemiologists AFAICS, and I see little chance for this paper to pass peer review.
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Well if it gets anywhere near a good price..... i'll twist the wife's arm to sell the investment property and put the lot into Tesla.... I was tempted.. I have been working on the argument...
Only for March Options.
I believe there is no free data about Open Interest on Friday morning?
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