Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

The difference is, he doesn't necessarily want to beat the other auto manufacturers, he wants to reduce the growth of climate change (and go to Mars) by increasing the use of electrically powered cars and renewable energy. It's great to be the leader, but that's not the mission.

I would argue that Elon would not be human to not care or not be deeply impacted by all the *sugary* and terrible things said about him, from being weak and naive to being a showman, a snake-oil salesman, and a serial exaggerator all the way to being a fraudster and a cheat.

If "winning" means not only accelerating the transition to sustainable energy but also simultaneously taking down his detractors and accusers along with the FUDsters and anti-Tesla schemers, I give him free rein. Doing so would probably further speed up the transition to sustainable energy anyway. Sometimes the safest, quickest and most effective method is to pull out all the stops and go for the jugular.

 

[LJS22]

Cross-posted this link on the Coronavirus thread, but Q1 looks like it's going to be brutal for the US and worldwide economy. If Tesla does have a breakout quarter (and solidifies itself as not only a tech company w/ the solarglass roofs scaling up, but also S3XY being sold at scale) in the midst of a worldwide economic crisis...

Venture firm Sequoia is sounding the alarm about the economy again as coronavirus spreads

Best case scenario they maintain status quo for Q1 and maintain in Q2 then Q3 and Q4 will be the ones in jeopardy if Coronavirus sinks the economy into a recession. If the economy can keep its head above water then second half of 2020 will be an investors dream

(Q3 and 4 would suffer if people are not buying cars from recession. I think we are set for Q1 and 2 with built up demand)

 

[StealthP3D]

OT

Has Tesla ever brought up the concept of regen suspension? It could work very much like regenerative breaking in that anyplace where there is movement, it can be exploited into energy and vice versa, the energy could control the movement. On top of the potential energy to be collected, it could also be used to control the movement of the wheels and tires the same way the proposed Bose active suspension did some 10 or more years ago. I remember being blown away by that but it was never implemented to my knowledge.

What think y'all?

Regen suspension is the future. But not primarily for the benefit of capturing the energy back into the battery, rather for a higher-quality, more capable damper that can be tuned on the fly without resorting to complicated servo motor damping adjusters. The problem is that a washboard road, driven at even 50 mph for an hour, is enough to heat the damping oil past its temperature rating and ruin the seals. It's not uncommon to blow a brand new shock seal this way. Especially on a shock absorber with enough damping to give a truck with long-travel suspension and a lot of weight (like the Cybertruck) good driving dynamics. For this reason, most vehicles for road use are under-damped. To make them last longer without resorting to larger, more expensive dampers.

This would actually be a good way to boost margins on the Cybertruck. By offering the ultimate regen off-road suspension package for $8K-$12K more. I would buy it for sure! On typical roads, it might only add 1-2 miles of range (much more on washboards) but the electronic adjustability and long-life would make it more than worthwhile. There is no wear on an electromagnetic damper - they would last the life of the truck. Reducing damping also gives safer travel on glare ice (to name but one environment-specific benefit).

 

[StealthP3D]

(Q3 and 4 would suffer if people are not buying cars from recession. I think we are set for Q1 and 2 with built up demand)

IMO, it would have to be a perfect storm of a recession to be bad enough that Tesla became demand constrained in Q3 and Q4. The fact is, demand for Tesla's is growing faster than production, by how much we can only guess. Model Y has just boosted demand into entirely new segments. Demand is so far off the charts relative to production it would have to be a pretty serious recession for this to be a problem.

The world is a big place and Tesla only has two production facilities to supply the whole of it. In this respect alone, Tesla's resistance to recession is many times that of a traditional OEM that has installed production capacity of many millions of units per year. Tesla's products are unique enough and superior enough that they could conceivably force the large OEM's to absorb ALL of the lost sales brought on by a recession. Remember, Tesla is the only one who is production constrained, not sales constrained.

 

[wipster]

Sure there is energy which could be captured. The question is there enough to be meaningful, and at what cost?

Good point, that's why I'll let Tesla decide, just thought I would bring it up.

 

[wsucougz]

Are these Solar Roof quotes legit? It's showing a 3000 sq ft, 2 story house at $30k ($25k after incentives). If so, this is an absolute game-changer. Last quote I got for solar roof was ~$60-80k, if I'm remembering correctly. I don't think I could put a new 30 year composite roof on for less than $15k.

Dang these quotes are incredible:

 

[StealthP3D]

Sure there is energy which could be captured. The question is there enough to be meaningful, and at what cost?

It's considerable, enough to catastrophically overheat the damper on a washboard road. Electromagnetic dampers would run much cooler because they work much more efficiently.

 

[StealthP3D]

Dang these quotes are incredible:

View attachment 518353

I wonder if the quotes include the electrical infrastructure necessary to complete the project. Because that can vary a LOT from house to house. Anyone read the fine print?

 

[larmor]

Cross-posted this link on the Coronavirus thread, but Q1 looks like it's going to be brutal for the US and worldwide economy. If Tesla does have a breakout quarter (and solidifies itself as not only a tech company w/ the solarglass roofs scaling up, but also S3XY being sold at scale) in the midst of a worldwide economic crisis...

Venture firm Sequoia is sounding the alarm about the economy again as coronavirus spreads

Most likely a recession is coming-- just a reflection of the business cycle, unrelated to anything else (politics, trade, etc). Yes a virus issue can be a problem, but at most shifts the 'phase' of the business cycle. What remains compelling for Tesla, is that their product(s) are positioned to alleviate the upcoming energy challenges which will begin as grid infrastructure has not been improved. Adding to this a lower cost battery will overall make the EV cheaper-- again, what is going on with that cybertruck battery(ies) with compelling range and payload, as well as with the semi, for relatively lower prices compared to existing and legacy tesla products...

 

[StealthP3D]

Selective camera angles. I try to keep one section clear so I can actually pull a vehicle in and work on it. Plus I recently put up a Shelter Logic portable garage to park a bunch of toys in

One of these?

This "do it in a tent" mentality is contagious! This proves Elon and Company are true leaders! Tents are underappreciated!

 

[LJS22]

IMO, it would have to be a perfect storm of a recession to be bad enough that Tesla became demand constrained in Q3 and Q4. The fact is, demand for Tesla's is growing faster than production, by how much we can only guess. Model Y has just boosted demand into entirely new segments. Demand is so far off the charts relative to production it would have to be a pretty serious recession for this to be a problem.

The world is a big place and Tesla only has two production facilities to supply the whole of it. In this respect alone, Tesla's resistance to recession is many times that of a traditional OEM that has installed production capacity of many millions of units per year. Tesla's products are unique enough and superior enough that they could conceivably force the large OEM's to absorb ALL of the lost sales brought on by a recession. Remember, Tesla is the only one who is production constrained, not sales constrained.

Absolutely agree. It would take a perfect storm to kill sales. Although I feel it’s possible it’s highly unlikely. Tesla will more than likely be fine and if they survived 08 they are more than poised to survive 2020 even in the more dire situation.

Hopefully Corona disappears so we can get back to normal programming

 

[Mkorpal]

IMO, it would have to be a perfect storm of a recession to be bad enough that Tesla became demand constrained in Q3 and Q4. The fact is, demand for Tesla's is growing faster than production, by how much we can only guess. Model Y has just boosted demand into entirely new segments. Demand is so far off the charts relative to production it would have to be a pretty serious recession for this to be a problem.

The world is a big place and Tesla only has two production facilities to supply the whole of it. In this respect alone, Tesla's resistance to recession is many times that of a traditional OEM that has installed production capacity of many millions of units per year. Tesla's products are unique enough and superior enough that they could conceivably force the large OEM's to absorb ALL of the lost sales brought on by a recession. Remember, Tesla is the only one who is production constrained, not sales constrained.

I'm not confident enough to make those claims. A big recession could put a lot of potential buyers on the sidelines.

 

[lafrisbee]

Are these Solar Roof quotes legit? It's showing a 3000 sq ft, 2 story house at $30k ($25k after incentives). If so, this is an absolute game-changer. Last quote I got for solar roof was ~$60-80k, if I'm remembering correctly. I don't think I could put a new 30 year composite roof on for less than $15k.

Now YOU are going to make me go look...I have a 2000 sq ft roof, single story, and as easy a roof to do as there is. And just for the solar roof they had me at over $32k. The quote for a high-quality fancy asphalt single was less than $15K.
The deal is I would get Solar to make my house hurricane/Power outage proof. And to do that it needs 3 powerwalls. So the minimum quote was $52K.
These are all round numbers. But that "quote" from 4 months ago really threw some cold water on my belief in Tesla. Not the cars and battery storage, but the Tesla Roof was looking bad.
Here in Florida with a low price on electricity, the ROI was going to take so many years that I'd be dead. I'm 63.
Now I will read all the "new pricing."?
Nope...I re-did the "solar roof calculator... it still came in the same. My numbers don't match yours.

 

[JRP3]

It's considerable, enough to catastrophically overheat the damper on a washboard road.

Which is an extremely rare event. Again, do some experimenting, feel one of your shocks every time you get out of your vehicle, or use an IR thermometer if you have one. Most of the time there just isn't much happening.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm not confident enough to make those claims. A big recession could put a lot of potential buyers on the sidelines.

Yes, by definition a recession would reduce total sales. But it wouldn't reduce sales evenly across all manufacturers. One car maker is not sales constrained (guess who) and there is no guarantee a recession would cause them to be sales constrained. The kind of person that retained their job through a recession is already the kind of person more likely to buy a Tesla. Recessions do not cause car sales to cease, not even close. Recessions hit companies that are sales constrained the hardest because the slightest dent in the economy reduces sales and therefore profits.

 

[PeterJA]

...If "winning" means not only accelerating the transition to sustainable energy but also simultaneously taking down his detractors and accusers along with the FUDsters and anti-Tesla schemers, I give him free rein.

Maybe this win will have the added benefit of making some folks more skeptical of the corporate media that fed them FUD for so many years.

 

[StealthP3D]

Which is an extremely rare event. Again, do some experimenting, feel one of your shocks every time you get out of your vehicle, or use an IR thermometer if you have one. Most of the time there just isn't much happening.

If the speeds are low and the road is smooth you don't even need dampers. Dampers become increasingly worked at higher speeds and on rougher roads. I've driven thousands of miles on washboard roads and have blown seals on a number of OEM shocks (including high dollar European shocks) and top of the line replacement shocks. Yes, they get too hot to hold your hand on them. Blown shocks are a regular occurrence out here on washboard roads of the wide-open American west unless you drive like a grandma. As the typical OEM shock heats up, a reasonably aware driver can feel the damping become reduced. The oil thins out and is forced through the orifices easier. This delays their failure but it doesn't prevent it.

My Ducati motorcycles have an $1800 Ohlins mono-shock in the rear with remote reservoir for extra cooling. That's how it came from the factory. I wear it out every 18,000 miles give or take a couple thousand. Ohlins recommends replacing the damper oil every 12,000 miles of service. Because it gets hot. This is a motorcycle built for public roads.

I've replaced shocks multiple times on off-road vehicles. The difference between the old worn-out shocks and the replacements is night/day. The shocks on my F-150 were shot after 22,000 miles. Yes, we drove it on dirt roads for hundreds of miles at a time. I would say the OEM dampers are not fit for the intended purpose. Cheap, cheap, cheap. Yes, they over-heated.

 

[JRP3]

I've replaced shocks multiple times on off-road vehicles. The difference between the old worn-out shocks and the replacements is night/day. The shocks on my F-150 were shot after 22,000 miles. Yes, we drove it on dirt roads for hundreds of miles at a time.

Exactly my point, rare use case. Most vehicles never see that type of use.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Mar 05, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $730.38
Volume: 10,867,792
Traded: $7,937,600,312.19 ($7.94 B)

Closing SP / VWAP = 99.18%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)​

Comment: "Mirrored macro moves all day like a 2x Autonomous Semi-Platoon"

 

[mejojo]

Now YOU are going to make me go look...I have a 2000 sq ft roof, single story, and as easy a roof to do as there is. And just for the solar roof they had me at over $32k. The quote for a high-quality fancy asphalt single was less than $15K.
The deal is I would get Solar to make my house hurricane/Power outage proof. And to do that it needs 3 powerwalls. So the minimum quote was $52K.
These are all round numbers. But that "quote" from 4 months ago really threw some cold water on my belief in Tesla. Not the cars and battery storage, but the Tesla Roof was looking bad.
Here in Florida with a low price on electricity, the ROI was going to take so many years that I'd be dead. I'm 63.
Now I will read all the "new pricing."?
Nope...I re-did the "solar roof calculator... it still came in the same. My numbers don't match yours.

You *could* do it just because it's cool and would help out the world, too. Plus, don't forget, this is EQUITY in your house, so whoever buys the house will pay more for your house.