Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neezer]

All of Italy now is on lock down.

 

[ZeApelido]

I just have to pipe up and say thank you for this one.

Sorry to inform you that alll exhaust pipes have been banned from this discussion.

 

[Fact Checking]

Elon's doing a live interview right now:

Mostly SpaceX topics - he's in a good demeanor.

 

[DriveMe]

Musk: "Do you want to go to Iceland? Probably not." - HEY!

He said, to visit - Sure!

 

[ZeApelido]

I, for one, am still flying. I will fly only in C or F to give more space between me and other pax. I carry hand sanitizer anyway, have done for many years. In modern commercial aircraft the air is completely exchanged every 1 to 4 minutes, depending on the model and the air is scrubbed as it circulates. I do go out of my way to avoid close contact with passenger or crew. I many decades of flying through SARS, Ebola and countless seasonal flu outbreaks I have never been infected.

When I was flying myself I took great care choosing copilots and demanded usual sanitation measures for them and other crew members. For that reason I was regarded as eccentric (OK there were a few other reasons also, perhaps) but nobody acquired illnesses despite flying into several airports affected during SARS, for example.

After all infectious disease transmission is probabilistic. The more of the potential infection vectors one eliminates the less the probability of disease. Of course, public health officials do not expect the general populace to take precautionary measures.

FWIW, many years ago when I was an epidemiologist I developed an acute sensitivity to understanding risk factors. It is no different today.

However, when specific locations have aggressive denial and inadequate diagnosis/treatment those are good to avoid. Thus I will not travel to the US. Iran, Northern Italy at the moment. Shanghai, on the other hand, I would go, but at the moment flights are scarce so we're working remote. That's cheaper anyway.

Wait a second, I thought you were a car manufacturing guy.

You were also an epidemiologist?!

I used to think I was the shitake in high school as I was the best in math.

Then I went to Neroden's college and other students were writing math proofs on the board outdoing the professor.

Then I went to Silicon Valley where everyone has a PhD or their own startup.

But was that the worst? No sir, along come TMC forum where apparently the most intelligent, insanely successful people hang out.

This place is an anomaly!

or a simulation...

 

[StealthP3D]

And if they'd held what they'd bought on the way down then they were into good profits, what 6 months later, or something like that?

Actually, the $SPX took four years from the bottom to regain the old highs. But that was a particularly brutal event because the underpinnings that failed were so interwoven into the economy as a whole. This situation is MUCH different. There's a reason it's called "the Great Recession".

Any buy from here is good, it will all rebound and go higher than the recent highs, if not tomorrow, next week, or next month whatever. That's the way to goes.

Big investment firms use events such as this to rotate out of stocks with little future and into investments with a brighter future. That's why I expect TSLA to lead the climb out of the Coronavirus hole. I'm welcoming this shake-up because I believe it will highlight and validate TSLA's recent climb out of the $200's-$300's and into the $700's-$900's and eventually beyond. Probably sooner than many here expect.

The previous market we were in was weird. Stocks with little chance of having strong future earnings were being valued very highly. If it had a ticker, it had a decent multiple. Totally unnatural. I don't look for stocks to buy that I speculate will go up simply because someone might pay me more for it later. I like my gains to come from actual value creation due primarily to efficiency, innovation and productivity. And Tesla shows every sign of being able to deliver that in spades. This kind of value creation is what will drive the $SPX in unimaginable ways over the coming decades.

 

[KSilver2000]

Are you saying it wasn't a buying opportunity (for those investing long term)? Just because you get a better deal the next day doesn't mean it wasn't good before. If I had the money and bought today at $630 or so and it dropped to $550 sometime in the next week -- so what? Tesla is going strong and this will, eventually, be reflected in the stock price.

If you mean the USA's lackluster response to COVID... well, yeah, even if the disease isn't zombie apocalypse the lack of effective response has set it up to get a lot worse. But it is accelerating the demise of weaker companies and is having an economic impact.

Yes, I completely understand things will eventually get better. One can obviously see that. My comment was in regards to what you point out in the latter.
This viral situation is not something that will just go away in a few weeks, especially with the response from our government. We are where we are because there were people just brushing this off. And there are people who still think that. They will be giving us better buying opportunities in the days/weeks ahead.

 

[wipster]

Well that spreadsheet draws it's data from Yahoo which indeed shows SAIC's market cap at $260B. CNBC OTOH shows it at $38.6B. A glitch in Yahoo's data I'd say.

View attachment 519993 View attachment 519994

(EDIT: see bottom right corner of each screen clipping for market cap)

Well CNBC and Yahoo Finance are both right, difference being Yahoo Finance is listed in Yuan, not dollars like CNBC. Took a bit of searching to figure that out, but Bloomberg showed the right currency symbol.

Edit: upon further inspection Yahoo says currency in CNY in very small letters...

 

[Thekiwi]

I'm mostly playing with previous TSLA winnings anyway, so the actual loss is still zero.

#ClassicBagholderQuotes

We all were born with $0 in our hands, so technically the actual loss for anyone who ever lost money on anything is zero I suppose using that logic.

 

[mickificki]

Oh Elon...

 

[avoigt]

GM CEO Mary Barra is an electrical engineer. She made her bones in the engineering department at GM.

I am a mechanical engineer myself and have done it in exceptional short time without any math or technical background including award nominations from German VDA and can tell you from experience an engineering degree does not tell you anything.

An experiences engineer would not have done the BEV presentation GM did.

 

[neezer]

View attachment 520003
Oh Elon...

He's darn right.

 

[Navin]

View attachment 520003
Oh Elon...

As a social experiment - I’m willing to go on the record to state we will see an article tonight from Lora K mentioning this tweet. Why am I so confident - I have a sneaking suspicion she’s a paid influencer to bring down the stock price in any way possible. Let’s see if I’m right here.

 

[MABMAB]

[if the mods don't get it they should exercise patience for those that do]

 

[StealthP3D]

#ClassicBagholderQuotes

We all were born with $0 in our hands, so technically the actual loss for anyone who ever lost money on anything is zero I suppose using that logic.

Actually, I know a guy who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth!

And the price of silver just kept going up. By age three his net worth had gone up 250%!

Seriously though, that comment about the losses not being "real" losses because they came from other gains struck my funny bone as well. I totally disagree with that kind of thinking (which might seem odd coming from someone who doesn't view unrealized losses the same way as realized losses).

But then you mentioned the obviously wrong concept that we were all born with $0 in our hands so there can't be any losses in life. That got me thinking about how I view life and money. And I realized that very concept, that we came into the world with nothing (and will leave with nothing) is actually a valuable one even though I disagree that we should view losses as not being a loss. But I do think my detachment from money is closely related to that thought.

I can't really tie the ends together on this thought except to say that most of us take money far too seriously. And if you learn how to live well on less, then money becomes even less important. People's problem with money is that they think they need a lot of it to live a happy and fulfilling life. Or that the amount of money they have defines who they are. Neither of which is true. If anything, the desire for more money is a trap.

 

[StealthP3D]

View attachment 520003
Oh Elon...

As usual, Elon speaks the unvarnished truth! I absolutely love it! Spot on!

 

[StealthP3D]

As a social experiment - I’m willing to go on the record to state we will see an article tonight from Lora K mentioning this tweet. Why am I so confident - I have a sneaking suspicion she’s a paid influencer to bring down the stock price in any way possible. Let’s see if I’m right here.

It would be pretty hard to get any traction to bring the TSLA price down using that tweet. There's no meat there, just an obvious truth.

 

[avoigt]

#ClassicBagholderQuotes

We all were born with $0 in our hands, so technically the actual loss for anyone who ever lost money on anything is zero I suppose using that logic.

Not really true, many have been born with a lot before the first cry.

 

[Evoforce]

So.... I got margin called one of my positions, and lost some actual real cash (a REAL loss ). This bums me out...because I'm pretty sure that it will all turn around pretty rapidly, once the model Y is in the news, and we get Q1 production/delivery.
The trouble is, I made a rule with myself to have a limit as to how much cash I'd put in my trading account, and i'm right at it now. I do NOT want to be one of those dorks who loses his lifes savings because he didnt know when to stop

I'm mostly playing with previous TSLA winnings anyway, so the actual loss is still zero.

If it carries on down tomorrow, I could be margin called even more, but I just cant imagine it continuing to fall without some deep pocketed long term investors deciding to scoop up stock at a bargain. Is that just wishful thinking?

I guess I am the dork who is going to be in the gravy. This dork is throwing everything I have that isn't nailed down. Well, some of it was nailed down. I am all in on this bet and still pulling floorboards to feed the fire. Pulled every piece of lint and turned every pocket inside out. Tried to sell the kids but no one wanted them cause they were too old... am considering wife on the auction block (big expense on horizon she wants a Y). Wish used bubble gum had a value cause it would be, "pawn shop here I come"... Got 15 shares @ 611 today! Why didn't I do all this when it was $178 a share? As I was trying to fix a blunder today that Wells Fargo did last Friday when trying to wire to my trading account, a investment banker told me not to invest in Tesla because the business was going to flop. He tried to enlighten me (short seller playbook) as to all the reasons why and I calmly told him how high of a percentage I was still up even with the market downturn. Yep, good day! Good day! Now, back to trying to find more dry powder... Cheers!

 

[EVMeister]

If any of you want some light relief from this thread, feel free to have a play over in the UK & Ireland section - Tesla stock in the UK?.