Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

I just finished reading that blog post. Fascinating. I'm trying to digest all the possible implications.

Better use would be market for excess nighttime wind power. Texas is giving away nighttime power because of excess wind capacity. Until grid-scale storage is in place, generate revenue with bitcoin mining.

 

[MC3OZ]

I just finished reading that blog post. Fascinating. I'm trying to digest all the possible implications.

One take way is we can add lidar to our Teslas by strapping an ipad to he roof.

But more seriously it must be the cost of lidar is dropping, at least that kind of lidar, which may be well short of what is needed for driving.

 

[XHabjab]

I agree with the overall focus of your post, and pretty much everything except this bullet. Do you have a source, or other reason why you think Tesla has the best internal software systems in the world?

My personal impression, as a customer since 2013, is that Tesla has some of the worst internal software systems in the world. As a data management professional, it seems to me that Tesla doesn't know what a data model (3rd normal form), good database design - it's as if they've only hired software engineers and no data management people. It's manifested in such simple problems as service being unable to update my address (back in 2013) because that was the sales system, and it kept pushing the previous owner's address into the default page that service would get.

Marketing db that couldn't keep track of whether to send me invites to launch events (not sure I'd have gone, but as a signature Model X reservation holder, there were a couple of events over the years I'd have at least liked to get an invite).

I can't remember the recent issue somebody else ran into, but I commented along these lines, and let him know that at least he could be comforted by the idea that their basic db design problems change over the years.

They might not be easily the worst, but for a company of Tesla's scale, I've been left feeling like it's amateur hour on this front over the years.

So they could use some expertise from a database company... so let's see, like maybe Oracle? I wonder if Elon has any contacts there?

 

[bhtooefr]

The immediate impact of the virus on the stock: a case can be made for it in this thread.

A video on DIY face masks: completely off-topic for this thread, go post it in the Coronavirus thread.

 

[BornToFly]

If you watch Nightly News for updates on the Virus each day, and you hear what the critical care doctors and nurses are saying, it is clear that Wallstreet has not priced in what is coming the next three months. There is no way around stay-at-home orders for every major city in the next two months. Anyone have a guess on what unemployment will be if all non-essential businesses are closed across the country for the next 2 months? Because most likely that is what is coming. Are we talking 30 Million unemployed? I'm expecting the market to drop 50% in the next two months, and I don't think TSLA SP can fight that kind of Macro. Holding core shares, but planning to go on margin to buy more shares when SP under 300.

 

[dhrivnak]

Yes, that is exactly what we need. A sign that outwardly says I take COVID seriously and care enough not to spread this. I would go back to eating out.

Very hard to eat with such a mask I do believe.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So does another 30 days of stay at home also mean no factory production for Tesla and other manufacturers? That will be devastating.

 

[XHabjab]

So does another 30 days of stay at home also mean no factory production for Tesla and other manufacturers? That will be devastating.

We're talking about Elon and Tesla here, not just some little namby pamby car company like GM or Ford.

I can see several rabbits Elon can pull out of his hat:

• Elon could convince the local decision makers that Tesla has a mandate from the federal government to go back to work.
• Elon could convince the locals that Tesla could do it safely. [Good example to follow is GF Shanghai.]
  
• Move a bunch of trailers onsite. Somehow have meals catered, provide entertainment... so that at least some employees (+maybe their families) can "shelter in place" at the factory at night while they work during the day. [Acknowledged: Supply chain issues.]

I'm waiting for somebody to say that "it is impossible". Then Elon will do it. And that would be a good thing.

[Edit: Add GF Shanghai example.]

 

[juanmedina]

One my wife's friends father just passed away from the Coronavirus here in South Carolina at 74. He was healthy other than recently having shoulder surgery and he was staying with her daughter during the recovery. He was at the hospital for a week.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So does another 30 days of stay at home also mean no factory production for Tesla and other manufacturers? That will be devastating.

Under the state wide california order, Tesla is considered a essentially business and can restart production whenever they want. I'm sure they'll put safety protocols into place to show state authorities how they'll prevent any outbreaks

 

[MC3OZ]

We're talking about Elon and Tesla here, not just some little namby pamby car company like GM or Ford.

• Elon could convince the locals that Tesla could do it safely. [Good example to follow is GF Shanghai.]

IMO this is the only possible path forward, work out how to open the factory with 99.99% safety.....
One of my suggestions earlier was adding perspex screens between some work stations, masks, tests etc.
That is just the tip of iceberg... they may need to quarantine the workforce either at the factory or nearby... work out how to transport them safely to and from the factory, supply all food etc...
Workers may need to be isolated from their families for a while...
It isn't impossible but it is difficult, getting the community to accept it is a good idea, is even more difficult.
Still someone working out how factories can be safely reopened, and how essential factories can operate more safely is a good idea.

The US is going to need factories to make mask, ventilators, test kits, drugs etc., safety at these essential factories is even more important, as we don't want supply from them interrupted.

 

[Green Pete]

If you watch Nightly News for updates on the Virus each day, and you hear what the critical care doctors and nurses are saying, it is clear that Wallstreet has not priced in what is coming the next three months. There is no way around stay-at-home orders for every major city in the next two months. Anyone have a guess on what unemployment will be if all non-essential businesses are closed across the country for the next 2 months? Because most likely that is what is coming. Are we talking 30 Million unemployed? I'm expecting the market to drop 50% in the next two months, and I don't think TSLA SP can fight that kind of Macro. Holding core shares, but planning to go on margin to buy more shares when SP under 300.

I don't know that any of that means it's not priced in. What does seem apparent is that the scale and timeline of this is less unknown than it was before. Unknowns cause stock price drops. I imagine many (but not all) of the people who pulled out of the market because they needed the money to survive have already done so.

At this point there's probably as much FOMO of missing the ride back up as there is for fear of the market going down more.

If it becomes clear the peak is in two weeks the markets might start to go up from there.

If it becomes clear that it peaks sooner than that the markets might go up sooner.

Many Americans are still in for a very tough ride. But as long as trump pence and the next 10 in the line of succession don't get sick, and things appear to reflect better or similar rates of infection as a medium to optimistic model it's possible (not guaranteed) that the markets go up. That possibility feels like it could keep people from selling.

I'm still getting puts just in case.

Just my two cents. Not investment advice.

 

[mrmage]

If you watch Nightly News for updates on the Virus each day, and you hear what the critical care doctors and nurses are saying, it is clear that Wallstreet has not priced in what is coming the next three months. There is no way around stay-at-home orders for every major city in the next two months. Anyone have a guess on what unemployment will be if all non-essential businesses are closed across the country for the next 2 months? Because most likely that is what is coming. Are we talking 30 Million unemployed? I'm expecting the market to drop 50% in the next two months, and I don't think TSLA SP can fight that kind of Macro. Holding core shares, but planning to go on margin to buy more shares when SP under 300.

I agree that it will be hard to keep the SP up. Tesla as a business should do fine because they have so many directions they can take if they can keep producing batteries, but that's different from SP.

At some point the market will acknowledge that this will become a significant recession. There's more room to go down after investors concede the significance of CV to both public health and economy.

We're nowhere near capitulation though. The market just jumped 11% when unemployment claims beat the previous record by 5x. By historic norms, investors feel this will be a mild recession.

To underscore, stay at home probably extended for a month in California. Not a surprise to anyone who's been following the news at all, but it underscores the severity of the CV on the general economy.

Coronavirus: Expect shelter-in-place order extension this week

 

[Rammstein]

Do we have a good estimate of Q1 delivery’s.

 

[LJS22]

Do we have a good estimate of Q1 delivery’s.

Between 65k-115k! But most of us think 83k will be a safe bet!

 

[SMAlset]

Don’t think anyone has mention Tesla bidding for a mega plant in Hawaii, 810MWh. From Electrek today:

Tesla bids to deploy one of the biggest batteries in the world with 244 Megapacks in Hawaii - Electrek

 

[SMAlset]

Bloomberg article:

Mortgage Bankers Ask SEC to Save Them From Wave of Margin Calls
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[UncaNed]

Good insight by @Papafox on opening tomorrow.

Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

Anybody else notice the part where Papafox says:

"I visit the coronavirus thread frequently, and if you'd like to respond to this post, please do so there and I will respond to your response in that thread, as long as you use my name @Papafox within your post."

??See how easy that was, keeping the coronavirus discussions in the coronavirus thread mostly? What a great example. Thank you, sir, for all your much appreciated insight, @Papafox!

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Futures have reversed and now are essentially flat going into the overnight period.

I'm expecting a battle between bears and bulls on Monday. We're either heading for another retracement upwards or another leg down. I think the days ahead will determine which direction the market goes. Trade accordingly, or don't.

 

[ProfTournesol]

Anybody else notice the part where Papafox says:

"I visit the coronavirus thread frequently, and if you'd like to respond to this post, please do so there and I will respond to your response in that thread, as long as you use my name @Papafox within your post."

??See how easy that was, keeping the coronavirus discussions in the coronavirus thread mostly? What a great example. Thank you, sir, for all your much appreciated insight, @Papafox!

That was a great post, gives me also more confidence that we've already seen the bottom. Don't expect a fast run upwards yet, but maybe Elon can surprise the market this week.

[edit]
Crap, the orange clown spoke...