Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

This is something I'm actually not clear on. Yes, it would make sense to retain a pack design that's proven while just replacing the cells. However, based on my understanding, the dry electrode manufacturing process improves the gravimetric energy density. But does this directly translate to a higher energy capacity per cell? Or would it simply make the cell lighter while keeping the same energy capacity? Would the cell-level voltage or current change? Because retaining the pack design would mean the number of cells per pack remains constant, so you wouldn't be able to simply jam more cells into the same modules.

Someone with a better understanding of battery cell parameters than me could possibly contribute here...

Increase in specific energy, gravimetric density, by using the dry process, means, most likely, more amp hours per cell, not a voltage change.

 

[Fact Checking]

So I don't understand why "Tesla leasing" is such a big deal when there are these other options?

About 40% of all new cars sales in the U.S. happen via leasing IIRC, and for luxury cars this proportion is even higher.

All big car companies in the U.S. have 'captured' financing subsidiaries such as GM Finance or Ford Credit, which offer an all-in-one leasing package from the manufacturer. Many consumers will prefer these deals were there's essentially a single party to deal with: the car maker.

For the Model S and X Tesla does about 10-20% of all their deliveries via Tesla leasing IIRC, I'd expect the Model 3 proprortion to be similar - with a fair amount of pent-up demand that has accumulated probably.

 

[AlMc]

Regardless of whether the tweet was a violation...it was a misstep and the 'optics' when you combine it with GC leaving is not what TSLA bulls and Tesla supporters like to see.

 

[KarenRei]

Jeez this thread is getting more dramatic than high school. People are reading too much into everything. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm headed off to go yearbook club.

It's not about what we think.
It's never about what we think.
It's about what the broader market thinks.

 

[elasalle]

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Better would be to send message to EM to stop tweeting, if that is possible.

Please reconsider, it's not laziness to scan news/twitter etc etc and share things with TMC.

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[Todd Burch]

It's not about what we think.
It's never about what we think.
It's about what the broader market thinks.

The reaction here amplifies everything. Tesla bulls are not the only ones that visit TMC.

 

[Tslynk67]

So a) I don't see Elon's Tweet as a big deal, b) who cares that some legal counsel is leaving?

Crazy...

 

[elasalle]

So a) I don't see Elon's Tweet as a big deal, b) who cares that some legal counsel is leaving?

Crazy...

It is a big deal, if SEC comes knocking?
EM is human, can make mistakes, but consequences are too big.
We have had almost 7 mth's without issue. Actually yesterday was good day with ARK interview, the tweet with 4K M3/ship, and then this 500K yearly tweet happened.

 

[Todd Burch]

So a) I don't see Elon's Tweet as a big deal, b) who cares that some legal counsel is leaving?

Crazy...

Exactly. Everyone makes a mountain out of every molehill. It's silly.

 

[Fact Checking]

The settlement itself is basically a cease-and-desist.

The original context I replied to was the claim that there's a "gag order" against Elon to not tweet - such order was not put against him.

Has this policy been put forward?

Very likely (but we don't know for sure) - and putting such a policy in place was what the settlement required him and Tesla to do.

Also note what Elon did yesterday: he believed he was just reiterating what was already disclosed publicly. He didn't intent to post any material information. He made a numerical mistake there, and within ~4 hours he sent out a tweet that clarified it - that might either have been on his own initiative, or might have been Tesla's control and oversight mechanism in action.

The 420 tweet was not a mistake - and there was a fundamental disagreement between the SEC and Elon about the legality of that action. Note that while Elon cannot publicly say that he was right, neither can the SEC claim that he was "guilty". In that regard the settlement agreement is symmetrical.

So IMO the settlement agreement does not narrow the original conduct or create a specific standard of review for the court - the agreement stands on its own and the question is whether Elon or Tesla violated that agreement.

Elon and Tesla wasn't found 'guilty' - they effectively entered into a settlement contract with the SEC, with court approval. To the extent they are in a weaker legal position it's limited to the terms of the settlement contract.

 

[KarenRei]

The reaction here amplifies everything. Tesla bulls are not the only ones that visit TMC.

Yes, you got us, the real problem is actually us.... Tesla would be soaring if we just ignored any negative news, because shorts reading this thread might... stop tweeting negative things if we were to do so... or something like that...

 

[Todd Burch]

It is a big deal, if SEC comes knocking?
EM is human, can make mistakes, but consequences are too big.
We have had almost 7 mth's without issue. Actually yesterday was good day with ARK interview, the tweet with 4K M3/ship, and then this 500K yearly tweet happened.

Not sure how this could be seen as an issue with the SEC. The very fact that he said "about 500k", when referring to Tesla's growth over the last 7-8 years is plenty of leeway. People need to lighten up.

 

[Chocochip]

I don't think it is the content of that tweet specifically will do so. I think it is one data point that shows the proposed enforcement mechanism is lacking. I know Elon gonna Elon, but OMG why does he have to push the edge so hard? At some point after enough examples like this, the SEC is going to step in.

My sense is that the initial tweet comparing production (rates) in 2011 and 2019 was Elon looking at his baby like a proud daddy, and trying to share that pride with his followers. That was him wearing the company co-founder / product architect cap. But as we were very clearly reminded last year, he cannot choose when to wear that cap vs. the CEO of publicly-traded Tesla Inc. cap when tweeting, and his Twitter account acts as an official comms. channel for the company. He sadly keeps forgetting that. I'm convinced he wasn't trying to deceive investors, but he really needs to double-check what his tweets look like to the outside world.

And, yes, this will hurt today. The general counsel leaving will too. May be related, although more likely Dane Butswinkas simply decided he can't adjust to the pace at Tesla.

 

[Buckminster]

It is quite possible that MR and above keep premium interior exclusively for some time and SR has the standard interior exclusively for some time. This would force some SR waiters to upgrade. Q2 could look like:

April
100% MR and above to Europe

May
100% MR and above to China/Europe

June
50% MR and above to US
50% SR with standard interior to US

With leasing and assuming that Elon does not want to release SR until Q4:
April
100% MR and above to Europe

May
100% MR and above to China/Europe

June
50% MR and above to US
50% MR and above leasing to employees

July
100% MR and above to Europe

Aug
100% MR and above to China/Europe

Sep
100% MR and above to US (with leasing)

 

[Todd Burch]

Yes, you got us, the real problem is actually us.... Tesla would be soaring if we just ignored any negative news, because shorts reading this thread might... stop tweeting negative things if we were to do so... or something like that...

I didn't say ignore. I said stop with the sensationalism. Elon tweets and immediately it's about "Tesla is upping its guidance to 500k!"

Some lawyer who's only been around for 2 months decides to leave and suddenly "he's had a tiff with Elon over the tweet and that's why he's leaving".

You've only been around this forum since 2017, but back in the day this place was WAY less sensational than it is now. People try to draw way too many lines to connect things without any evidence to support it.

 

[AlMc]

So a) I don't see Elon's Tweet as a big deal, b) who cares that some legal counsel is leaving?

Crazy...

Not sure how this could be seen as an issue with the SEC. The very fact that he said "about 500k", when referring to Tesla's growth over the last 7-8 years is plenty of leeway. People need to lighten up.

Again, it is the 'optics'. Will it be a long term drag on SP/accomplishing the mission statement: NO. Is it a 'good thing' or 'nothing burger' to have these two events coincide: Again NO

 

[JRP3]

Sold some margin shares yesterday around 310, if the FUD drives us below 300 I'll buy them back. Rinse and repeat as necessary.

 

[schonelucht]

Also note what Elon did yesterday: he believed he was just reiterating what was already disclosed publicly. He didn't intent to post any material information. He made a numerical mistake there, and within ~4 hours he sent out a tweet that clarified it - that might either have been on his own initiative, or might have been Tesla's control and oversight mechanism in action.

Except that the settlement requires pre-approval. If that pre-approval didn't catch this kind of error, it might as well not exist.

 

[Lucky_Man]

Just the right spot to bring the following vid up [so few views!] [also, the ark interview was informative]:

Cruise Automation: San Francisco Maneuvers | 3,116 views | Published on Jan 25, 2019
Our driverless cars constantly encounter challenging situations on the streets in San Francisco. The driving seen in this video is 100% autonomous. This video is sped up approximately 2.5x. Do you have what it takes to solve challenging problems like this?

Whew! My lasting impression is - I'll never attempt to drive thru San Francisco.

 

[agloutney]

He also made a mistake in that they didn’t deliver 0 cars in 2011. They delivered some Roadsters. Is the SEC gonna get all excited over that too? Considering it was after hours I don’t think the tweet amounts to much.