Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

Spread the word far and wide: BC Canadians can still get $4k off a Model Y if they order before midnight TONIGHT

https://twitter.com/x/status/1803178090916417919

 

[AndrewZ]

I suspect there is a significant range of opinions here...but once Tesla has the FSD low accident rate data/statistics they want to stand up in court AND in the court of public opinion, how many months do you estimate before Tesla hits the switch allowing "one of the biggest asset value increases in history"?

Tesla needs to worry about accident rates for the company’s own self-preservation lol much less anything else

But somewhere between 2-52 weeks after whenever the question is asked.

 

[aubreymcfato]

There will be a nice bump of sales from Italy this month. There was a much-waited fund for EVs that got drained in 9 hours.
I don't know how but @piloly has daily data from Tesla in Italy so we know there was a record of more than 250 cars sold today.
We don't know the backlog and it could be really substantial (possibly thousands of cars ordered "more" than usual).
It won't change the fate of the EU sales but it's nice nonetheless.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1803176451824382375

 

[GhostSkater]

God, Elon Musk, or Morgan Freeman?

God, Elon Musk, and Morgan Freeman walk into a bar, he orders a beer

 

[cliff harris]

I suspect there is a significant range of opinions here...but once Tesla has the FSD low accident rate data/statistics they want to stand up in court AND in the court of public opinion, how many months do you estimate before Tesla hits the switch allowing "one of the biggest asset value increases in history"?

Actually I suspect it will be a long time, and certainly not one event. I can imagine things going like this:

• Limited FSD-based robotaxi service with 'safety drivers' rolled out in a few US cities
• FSD released in China
• FSD released in Europe
• Limited FSD-based robotaxi with safety drivers in some China cities
• Expansion to a LOT of china cities
• Expansion to entire US states
• Removal of safety drivers in certain times of day/weather
• Removal of safety drivers in some countries
• Complete driver-free universal robotaxi service
• Standard no RT vehicles can now be added to the network

Thats a LOT of steps, and each one could take months, so we could be looking at a big asset value change over maybe 2 or 3 years minimum. Like most big amazing changes, such as the internet or mobile phones, nobody will be able to confidently pinpoint 'the moment', but it will nonetheless happen.
People expecting a 500% TSLA pop on one day will likely be disappointed. Seeing a 10-15% rise with each of the above events is very possible though?

 

[Mengy]

Actually I suspect it will be a long time, and certainly not one event. I can imagine things going like this:

• Limited FSD-based robotaxi service with 'safety drivers' rolled out in a few US cities
• FSD released in China
• FSD released in Europe
• Limited FSD-based robotaxi with safety drivers in some China cities
• Expansion to a LOT of china cities
• Expansion to entire US states
• Removal of safety drivers in certain times of day/weather
• Removal of safety drivers in some countries
• Complete driver-free universal robotaxi service
• Standard no RT vehicles can now be added to the network

Thats a LOT of steps, and each one could take months, so we could be looking at a big asset value change over maybe 2 or 3 years minimum. Like most big amazing changes, such as the internet or mobile phones, nobody will be able to confidently pinpoint 'the moment', but it will nonetheless happen.
People expecting a 500% TSLA pop on one day will likely be disappointed. Seeing a 10-15% rise with each of the above events is very possible though?

Yep, this is basically what I expect too. I don't think there will be a singular "biggest asset increase in history" moment like Elon and a lot of bulls expect to see. Rather I believe it will be a gradual increase in value over time similar to what Cliff lists above.

 

[MC3OZ]

Yep, this is basically what I expect too. I don't think there will be a singular "biggest asset increase in history" moment like Elon and a lot of bulls expect to see. Rather I believe it will be a gradual increase in value over time similar to what Cliff lists above.

The push to get the extension finished at Austin and training compute installed for HW4 could be because the Robotaxi revealed on 8/8 should use HW4.

Hence initial Robotaxi operations could be HW4 using vehicles that don't have a steering wheel, hence no safety driver. But probably with remote monitoring and control.

What we don't know is:-

• How much better will HW4 FSD be?
• When will HW4 FSD be ready for Robotaxi operations?

It is probably going to take at least 6 months to train HW4 FSD and prove that it is better than HW3, probably at least another 6 months to be sure HW4 is ready for Robotaxi operations.

They could test out the model using HW3 and safety drivers as an interim step.,

IMO it is easy to understand why Elon was annoyed about the delay to the HW4 training centre, annoyed enough to fire a few people.

 

[SPadival]

What's his TMC username?

@LightandCalm with this as his profile picture



(No connection to @DarkandStormy )

 

[EQC_]

...I know some of us disagree on this, but I simply don't think early/near founders need to be compensated in this way which dilutes other shareholders (to the tune of 10% which is insane for anyone, even if not named Elon)...

I know sunwarriors noted that he's not directly a shareholder...but any shareholders complaining about Elon's compensation really feels like a G-rated depiction of why prostitutes require payment up front....because there are a lot of selfish people who don't want to pay after the fact.

Spoiler: More rambling description...

In this case, Elon, the board, and the Shareholders all agreed in advance that IF and ONLY IF Elon can get Tesla's market cap to grow from $50billion to $650 billion (ie: a gain of 1200%), and IF and ONLY IF other huge company performance conditions are also met, then he can dilute other shareholders by 10%. That contract for Elon probably felt almost as secure as up-front payment...but AFTER Elon and the Tesla team achieved a whole mess of "impossible" milestones, along came Mr. 9 shares and the courts to try to stop the payment after the fact.

It doesn't matter that 10% of Tesla today is a huge number...the deal was made, 70+% of shares voted to make the deal in advance, Elon kept his end of the bargain and achieved the impossible, and then 70+% of shares voted again to confirm it after that.

And, while Mr. 9 shares apparently has a very small stake...we now know that over 70% of shares voted for Elon TWICE. So, it is a minority of shareholders, and a whole bunch of outsiders with no actual stake in the deal that are complaining.

And, I'm fairly certain that the most noise is actually being made by those non-stakeholders. So, it's like if Elon and I agreed that, if he could earn me $100, then I would pay him $10 later. He earned me my $100, and I've got it in my pocket. A whole bunch of strangers now show up and scream: "don't pay him $10! He doesn't deserve it so you don't have to!" It's like strangers with nothing ot gain or lose are just insisting I be selfish after somebody benefited me.

Hmmm...and now that I think of it, any non-shareholder complaining about Elon's pay package seems like they must be a person who would march around telling OTHER people not to pay their prostitutes after-the-fact for some reason. I can't even fathom the motivation for this sort of behavior.

 

[Seattle]

And we know that money will go to the Mars Mission and further innovation, not mega-mansions and super yachts.

He does seem to have a monotonically increasing number of children to support, baby needs a new pair of shoes.

 

[MartinAustin]

Got an invitation to order a Cybertruck Foundation series yesterday. (not taking it )

I didn't place a reservation until January 2022. No way I'm near the beginning of the queue. (estimated to be around #1,300,000) So I'm guessing they're just seeing who else wants one.