I don't see it as an "either or" situation. What you see as the market failing to price in next quarter's (or next years) drop in economic productivity, I see as the market averaging the economic activity over a long enough period that it only knocks 15%-23% off the value of the market (depending upon the index) from where we were sitting at the beginning of the year, well before CV had any effect on the market. Those numbers are based on the DJIA (-19.24%), SP500 (-15.23%) and NYSE (-23.00%). In other words, I think the negative changes to economic activity have been fairly priced in if one assumes companies are valued for their expected long-term performance. "Long-term" means different things to different people but the market averages it all out. That said, the market also prices in short-term fear which is why I expect a short-term drop in market valuations which we will (again) quickly recover from.
I chose to not worry about these corrections and bear markets because they are happening on an ever-accelerating time-scale. Meaning they work through quicker than ever. I don't think we are going to see anymore decade long bear markets. This is a function of the speed and wide availability of information coupled with modern economic policy and the willingness to print money. If anything, this should make one scared to be in too much cash. In a modern world, it's more important than ever to have productive assets to protect against the devaluation of money.
I've never believed in having a broad exposure to the market because I don't equate portfolio volatility with long-term risk. I'm willing to have a volatile portfolio as long as the long-term returns are good. So I've always invested in technology and innovation and left housing, real estate, clothing, food, and popular fashions and fads to others. Because technology and innovation is not going away. Innovation is where true VALUE is created by making things faster and cheaper with less. It's also where the best returns lie if you know how to avoid most of the dead-ends and non-profitable business plans. So this is another reason I am long-term bullish on the market - I actually tend to agree with you that much of the market is becoming less relevant and less valuable.
But the technology and innovation that businesses depend upon is not going away. It improves the lives of even people who eschew technology by making the products they buy less expensive and more easily available. I did invest in the early days of Starbucks but that was because the business model was simply too compelling. And I do have some BP oil (which is a disaster in terms of capital depreciation) but it has almost covered its losses with the dividends it's paid over the years. But, in general, I stick with technology and it's served me well over the last 30 years. And, yes, I consider Tesla a tech company as they innovate and push the cost of manufacturing down.
