Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Oh BTW, how come Musk doesn't call China welding apartments shut fascist

He doesn't have to since it's already a totalitarian regime.

 

[Artful Dodger]

He doesn't have to since it's already a totalitarian regime.

PSA #159813

 

[jerry33]

WRT to remdesivir, it's Gilead claiming they have their own data showing it works while refusing to share any of that data but third parties doing double-blind controlled studies claiming it doesn't. Who do you trust more?

The idea behind science is that it's a method of investigation and repeatability is the touchstone. So if you claim something works and you show the method, then others using that method should be able to replicate the results. You don't have to show the data, just the method used to get the data. However, it does take time and people want instant results--that's not going to happen.

 

[ZachF]

I am not going to die for Elon Musk's bonus.

I listened to the Apple earnings call today and nobody complained about the stay at home orders. Apple is not only focused on long term growth, but they also care about the safety of it's employees and customers. I sold some Tesla stock today and I will but some Apple tomorrow.

Elon Musk should get off twitter.

EFFING LOL.

Apple? You mean the same company that has nets on it's factories (in China) to keep too many workers from killing themselves?

 

[Artful Dodger]

However, it does take steal time and people want

FTFY.

PSA #159813

Apple? You mean the same

No, he doesn't. You can let it go now, please.

PSA #159813

 

[HG Wells]

As to the market in general.

For the past month the NASDAQ has been going steadily up and up.
Anyone think its about to go down ?

 

[jerry33]

He also has this one:- The Stoic Emperor on Twitter

Rapid learning requires a high tolerance for looking stupid.

I must be able to learn really rapidly then.

 

[jerry33]

Indeed. Somebody with Admin access should identify this IP address to find out how many other Zombie/trolls accts are posting from that location.

Is it the same IP as the troll who was banned on Thursday?

That only works if they are sending from a static IP.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't know why anyone is paying these analysts. Rob Maurer is better than any of them and he provides it for free.

Finally, an easy question. Brokerages pay their analysts for the same reason a ventriloquist takes care of their puppet!

 

[Knightowl]

oh boy, this is exciting lol dont know if the stock will be taking a hike up or down but guaranteed to move alot in one of those directions and I have orders in to cover both ways

 

[CorneliusXX]

Research - Moody's

Moody has reviewed the rating. Notice that this isn't an announcement of an up/downgrade or intention to do any. Purely announcement that they have completed a review.

But given that Teslas credit scores reflect investment grade I would think it 75%+ likely that Tesla is getting upgraded soon.

This is usually a sign that they're not going to change the rating in either direction. They tend to use these annoying negative confirmations. If they were planning on changing it they would have stated a positive or negative ratings watch.

 

[jerry33]

So the question remains - why would Tesla choose to send cars from Fremont to international markets when the Shanghai produced car would be cheaper and provide more profit? (all else being equal) - once they have excess capacity in Shanghai of course.

Says it all. Likely not going to happen for some time.

 

[ZachF]

This is usually a sign that they're not going to change the rating in either direction. They tend to use these annoying negative confirmations. If they were planning on changing it they would have stated a positive or negative ratings watch.

Personally, I'm surprised Moody's still exists.....

 

[Artful Dodger]

As to the market in general.

For the past month the NASDAQ has been going steadily up and up.
Anyone think its about to go down ?

This is an excellent question. Long-time contribtor @Curt Renz shared recently that today (being the 1st day of a new Month) is often the time which large funds invest new monthly contributions they receive from pensions. This has some implications:

• are Pension contributions down due to uptick in US unemployment?
• are the majority of the newly Unemployed largely enrolled in Pension Contribution Plans?
• how much money is still on the sidelines from the Q1 downturn and is now looking for opportunities to invest?
• how much money will chase larger gains by accepting more risk?

We've heard that large funds tend to buy later in the day, once the morning gyrations have straightened out. Is there a common time for those trades? Anecdotally, I've see that ARK Invest often does their trading at around 11 am.

I'm sure though that a wiser and steadier hand than mine will share some insights here.

Cheers!

 

[FrankSG]

On the Conference Call, Elon said the goal is 4K Model 3s per week from Shanghai by midyear (presumably that means production fully ramped to that level by the end of Q2)...

...and that level is: 50k/quarter (200k/year, per the CC)

Cheers!

I do agree that the ER makes things a little more confusing and uncertain, but I think I'm still going to stick with my previous theory based on this report we saw in March:

GIGA SHANGHAI PRODUCTION CAPACITY

During the said meeting, it was disclosed that the current capacity of Giga Shanghai following the temporary shutdown during the peak of the coronavirus public health scare was pegged at 2,000 vehicles per week with single shifts per day and overtime on Saturdays. Tesla reportedly plans to activate two shifts in March to hit 3,500 units per week with a goal of achieving 50,000 to 60,000 vehicles fo the first half of the year.

According to the experts at Giga Shanghai cited by the report, the carmaker expects a significant increase in production starting July following a stress test in June.

“In the first and second half of this year, the combined production capacity is expected to be about 170,000 vehicles. Looking at the whole year next year, if the whole year runs at a production capacity of 5,000 vehicles per week, it can reach a production capacity of nearly 250,000 vehicles per year,” the report by Ran Cai Jing reads.

I reckon the ER might be underpromising saying they expect to reach the 4k/week, which I reckon is off of 2 shifts, by mid-2020.

It just seems unlikely that they could reach 2k/week with 1 shift + some overtime, have plans for 3 shifts total, and then somehow cap out at 4k/week.

I'm still inclined to believe that in late Q2 or early Q3 the 3rd shift will start to come online, and eventually bring Shanghai up to weekly production of 5-5.5k.

 

[vikings123]

As to the market in general.

For the past month the NASDAQ has been going steadily up and up.
Anyone think its about to go down ?

I do think it will go down in the next couple of months. Technical analysis seems to indicate S&P will hit 3000 before the next leg down. As for Tesla, as impressive as those results were, I think there is more pain in the short term. Don't get me wrong I'm obviously very bullish long term and the whole timing the market thing somehow never worked for me so HODL it is lol.

I might sell some PUTS in the 400-500 range(2-3 months out) as I do not mind adding more at those levels.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Personally, I'm surprised Moody's still exists.....

They are legislated into existence. Ratings agencies are one of the best rackets going.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm still inclined to believe that in late Q2 or early Q3 the 3rd shift will start to come online

There will be no 3rd shift. The 1st shift at GF3 is 10 hrs, M-F plus Sat as a 'Production Make-up' and Training Day.

The 2nd Shift will be another 10-hrs of production/day, so expect it to double GF3 output, but not triple.

Where I do see an increase over guidance is the speed at which the phase 2 / Model Y plant comes into production. At the pace we're witnessing in construction, I think that Q42020 is now possible for 1st production, and that's amazing. It's all about CAPACITY.

Demand in China will be INSATIABLE for many years. Then they'll start Exports...

Cheers!

 

[FrankSG]

There will be no 3rd shift. The 1st shift at GF3 is 10 hrs, M-F plus Sat as a 'Production Make-up' and Training Day.

The 2nd Shift will be another 10-hrs of production/day, so expect it to double GF3 output, but not triple.

What do you base this on?

 

[willow_hiller]

Tesla has updated their Home page to include the Model Y in the carousel, which signals to me they're chomping at the bit to ramp production and start selling hundreds of thousands of them.

That, and the new home page also makes for a great Desktop background: https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/homepage/Homepage_Desktop_Bluesky.png