Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LJS22]

Now asking about penalties. The mayor just told everyone how to get the sheriff to investigate business violators, which could result in fines or jail time.

Elon Musk getting arrested would take us to 1000

 

[Ameliorate]

While I personally don't agree with their strategy, it's important to note that that is not what she said. She didn't say that the antibody tests have a 50% false positive rate, she said that given that only ~3% of the population have been exposed, about 50% of the positives would be false positives, which would be the case with a false positive rate of ~3%, which is consistent with what we know about these tests.

I didn't put quotes because I may not have got it word for word, which can be important for sure! So if you caught that good on you.
That said, without vast antibody testing that was highly accurate where on earth does this 3% number come from? What if it's 30% that were exposed, how does that change the false positive? Is she suggesting all a-symptomatic positives are false positives? There's just too much speculation here for me.

 

[woodisgood]

Seems like stock wants to drop on the news but MMs trying to keep it afloat at 820. Must have been a lot of PUT action recently.

 

[feigen66]

Now asking about penalties. The mayor just told everyone how to get the sheriff to investigate business violators, which could result in fines or jail time.

The mayor asked why Elon couldn't just make ventilators.

Yeah, right. Even NY is giving away ventilators. Which hospital has ICU occupancy more than 50% now?

 

[phantasms]

Ok. Holding heavy over the weekend. It has been decided. Worst case scenario it tanks and goes up at end of the month.

Core shares are hold till $10k. You guys taught me well. [looking at you Stealth P]

 

[LJS22]

Strong close with that late news! Might have been some MM help, but it’s better than showing a fragile stock that can move 20 points on any headline.

 

[wipster]

Damn, was holding out for 820...

 

[LJS22]

Ok. Holding heavy over the weekend. It has been decided. Worst case scenario it tanks and goes up at end of the month.

Core shares are hold till $10k. You guys taught me well. [looking at you Stealth P]

We still have to wait on news on manufacturing continuing! That will be a nice catalyst lol

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think all this Elon twitter stuff is quite childish(obviously), but you put him in handcuffs for opening up and you instanlty converted 37% of this country from rabidly anti-renewables to Tesla fanbois. Might actually be worth doing it on purpose.

 

[powertoold]

Who do they arrest if it's a public company? Us shareholders?

 

[woodisgood]

Who do they arrest if it's a public company? Us shareholders?

I better put on pants if I'm going to be on TV.

 

[LJS22]

Take it with a grain of salt as I saw it on reddit. But someone said their wife is going back to work at Tesla Nevada on Thursday

 

[Prunesquallor]

Well, I was ready to eat crow for my pessimism about Fremont reopening, but looks like this is all coming to a head this afternoon. Could range from partial reopening to Elon in handcuffs.

 

[phantasms]

I think all this Elon twitter stuff is quite childish(obviously), but you put him in handcuffs for opening up and you instanlty converted 37% of this country from rabidly anti-renewables to Tesla fanbois. Might actually be worth doing it on purpose.

As long as they don't put him in the same cell as Jeffrey Epstein.

 

[woodisgood]

Anyone see an opportunity for bright red Freelon hats? I sure do.

 

[Reductionist]

I didn't put quotes because I may not have got it word for word, which can be important for sure! So if you caught that good on you.
That said, without vast antibody testing that was highly accurate where on earth does this 3% number come from? What if it's 30% that were exposed, how does that change the false positive? Is she suggesting all a-symptomatic positives are false positives? There's just too much speculation here for me.

I believe, and I'm not sure about that, that the 3% come from modelling the spread based on confirmed cases, measured doubling times and the like.
With regard to the test accuracy, I believe that you're confusing relative and absolute percentages:
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the true number of people with antibodies is 3%.
Now, if you have an antibody test with a 3% false positive rate, approx. 6% of tests you do will be positive (assuming 100% sensitivity), meaning that 50% of positive tests are false positives.
This is what she was alluding to: you need really high specificity if you want to measure something that has a low prevalence, or your data will be garbage.
Contrast this with what happens if 30% of the population really has antibodies: now approximately 33% of tests will come back positive, and only about 9% of positive tests will be false positives, using the same test. I hope this was helpful

 

[Reductionist]

Take it with a grain of salt as I saw it on reddit. But someone said their wife is going back to work at Tesla Nevada on Thursday

This is accurate, according to carsonight:

Panasonic has been spooling up since a week ago Wednesday. Tesla megapacks are in full production. Other Tesla employees on a wait and see from Fremont.​

 

[LJS22]

Well, I was ready to eat crow for my pessimism about Fremont reopening, but looks like this is all coming to a head this afternoon. Could range from partial reopening to Elon in handcuffs.

Say what you want, Elon in handcuffs would be the most patriotic ending to this ever, a South African comes to this country and carries the flag of freedom to the bitter end! A true American story!

but really that asshole is paying the bail for all of us if they take the shareholders in. He just got to buy a bunch of shares at half price

 

[hobbes]

She says they have not given the green light to Tesla.
Seem to be in constant discussion with Elon though.

Maybe I am interpreting too much into this, but from the way she mentioned Elon I don´t think anyone is going to jail. IMHO most likely Tesla will be not doing full production for another week but just preparations (like test runs of improved production lines) so both sides can save face. And next week they can ramp up smoothly to full speed. Just my guess though.

BTW, she totally seemed like someone from the oil industry /s...

 

[Singuy]

Elon in handcuffs will definitely restore any faith people lost after he called the people in charge fascists that's for sure.