Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[troym]

Do you have some sort of reading comprehension issues? Go over my post again and see if you get it this time.

Here's what we know:

1. Elon sent an email to his team saying that they need to improve the production rates of the Model Y -- unless you somehow believe that's a fake leak, but I haven't seen any evidence of that.

2. The Model Y has been added to the referral program, which has always been used as a demand incentive -- unless you believe Tesla has suddenly turned into a charity and gives stuff away for nothing.

What I said is that based on these two facts, one reasonable conclusion -- but not necessarily the correct one -- is that there's weak demand for the specific versions in production now in the geographical area they're targeting for deliveries now. If you disagree on reasonable grounds, please present your reasons. So far, your comment sounds like "oh, you just believe what others tell you, so gullible!", but you don't offer any reasonable alternative. And no, you "trusting" that this assumption is wrong is not a reasonable alternative.

I get that you feel all superior when you police the forum and "set people straight", but assume you're not the only true seer of the TSLA truth and everyone else is a dum-dum. Check your attitude, because frankly it's grating.

No matter how much you qualify your posts, you’re going to get auto-disagrees whenever you mention the “D” word.

I agree - theres a huge difference between “Tesla has a demand problem” and “Tesla has a demand problem for Fremont-produced M3s for delivery to the US in Q2 at current prices because there isn’t enough time to get them on ships to Europe/Asia for delivery by end of month.” I shared this opinion the day of the price cuts and Rob Maurer, who’s widely respected, said similar that evening, so the argument certainly isn’t outlandish. However, people will automatically jump to the conclusion you’re arguing the former and not the latter.

Those that agree won’t comment/quote for fear of being labelled a bear/dum dum and/or they’ve come to the realization it’s not a battle worth fighting here.

You’ll know who disagrees as they’re vocal. In their defense, when you’ve made a killing being a long term Tesla investor, it’s easy to feel superior to everyone else.

 

[Krugerrand]

No, I was not even thinking of Jobs. It is quite obvious that Musk loves to start new companies. Some would argue that he has always been more interested in SpaceX. As Tesla scales up, it could prove boring to him, and not "Boring" in a good way. How energized will Musk be leading Tesla from build 11.7 million vehicles in one year to 13.4 million the next year? Plenty of other CEOs would be happy to jump at that chance for a tenth of the money, and it does not really require an Elon to make it happen.

I think as long as the new product models continue to evolve, he’ll be suitably happy to continue. CYBRTRCK, Rocket Roadster, Robotaxis, Chinese littler car, solar roof 5.0, bajillion/kWh (KWH/Kw/KwH/wtfever) project that powers all of Russia and so on....

 

[Krugerrand]

The question was put to me to identify a scenario in which Musk might behave in a way that could be damaging to the Tesla brand that is too strongly linked to the Elon brand. When you think seriously about risks, you have to be willing to consider possibilities that you think are not so likely. I don't think it is "over-thinking" to challenge one's assumptions in this way.

Except he’s super predictable by nature.

 

[elasalle]

No, I was not even thinking of Jobs. It is quite obvious that Musk loves to start new companies. Some would argue that he has always been more interested in SpaceX. As Tesla scales up, it could prove boring to him, and not "Boring" in a good way. How energized will Musk be leading Tesla from build 11.7 million vehicles in one year to 13.4 million the next year? Plenty of other CEOs would be happy to jump at that chance for a tenth of the money, and it does not really require an Elon to make it happen.

Steve Jobs is Dead & APPL is still minting monies

 

[Krugerrand]

You may disagree with Fred's take on the reason behind Tesla's inclusion of the Model Y to the referral program, but your suggestion also doesn't really add up with the news from yesterday -- the leaked email from Elon.

So we have a situation where:
1. Elon informs his manufacturing team that the Model Y production needs to ramp up and the number of rectifications needs to be minimised, which indicates they're not where they want to be in terms of production rate, and
2. The Model Y is added to the referral program, indicating that the current rate of demand -- at least on the West Coast, given we're currently quite late in the quarter -- is below the production rate.

Weak demand is a reasonable conclusion. It may not be the correct one, but it is reasonable based on what we know. Again, it may simply be weak demand for the specific Model Y version (incl. wheels, body color) they're producing now, in the geography in which they have a good chance of delivering this quarter, but it's not completely unreasonable. People are just now starting to get back to work in many cases, some people may still need to figure out if there is a job waiting for them at the end of the lockdown, and so financial concerns are a major factor for many families; as such, it's possible some reservations are not transformed into orders right away.

1. They’re never happy with where they are on anything. That’s a positive.

2. 27 - Thanks.

 

[dc_h]

How does it do that? This really is a math game. My wife has her doctorate in stochastics. Her opinion is that she can't develop an algorithm to predict the stock market unless she can pick and chose assumptions.
But what I can't get out of her is how does a stock performance change from one day to the next without any known position or event that would cause change to be known...
What I am saying is, Who is making all the decisions to make TSLA do what they want? It sure as hell ain't any of the people that love or hate TSLA.

Investors show up to invest like soldiers in their own war, each fighting their own battle and defining their own victories and losses. Rational behavior is contextual and everyone has their own context to view the world. Your wife would probably like Burton Malkiel's classic investment book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street". I'm not sure if he intended to imply, but my takeaway was the Wall St acts according to Quantum mechanics.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

When it comes to Elon leaving Tesla, I don't see any way of him leaving until Robotaxi is out and scaled. And if/when that happens, Tesla will be so flush with cash that no one will care that Elon is leaving. So to an investor, the question of "Will Elon move on eventually?" entirely feels like it's a nothing-burger regardless of the outcome.

 

[Cherry Wine]

How does it do that? This really is a math game. My wife has her doctorate in stochastics. Her opinion is that she can't develop an algorithm to predict the stock market unless she can pick and chose assumptions.
But what I can't get out of her is how does a stock performance change from one day to the next without any known position or event that would cause change to be known...
What I am saying is, Who is making all the decisions to make TSLA do what they want? It sure as hell ain't any of the people that love or hate TSLA.

A contributor that used to post here passionately posited that day-to-day stock gyrations are impossible to predict because so many participants have their own reasons for doing what they do at any given time.

I tend to agree with the view.

 

[elasalle]

Fun:
VW ID.3 is already on the streets of Denmark "Order Yours Today"
https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1270331078285447169

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Elon definitely planned to be out of Tesla by now, focused entirely on SpaceX. For now I think he'll just shift more of his time to non-Tesla endeavors.

Once Y is ramped on 3 continents, truck and semi are out......what's left?

 

[Krugerrand]

It's true that Fred could have left off "surprising move indicating weak demand" out of the headline. However, I find that he usually does a good job of separating factual reporting from the opinion in his pieces, which is why they frequently have and "Electrek's Take" section. At the same time, it's not really a stretch to assume that adding the Y to the referral program is an effort to boost demand. Why else would Tesla make this move? Moreover, this move follows price cuts for S, X, and 3 and a compression of the delivery window for the Y. All this is occurring in the midst of a tremendous slow-down in the global automotive market.

I have no worries about the long term demand for Tesla's products, but there appears to be mounting evidence of at least a meaningful air pocket in demand in North America. Fair? If not, what's the case otherwise?

28. Keep ‘em coming, boys! There’s only a few more weeks in Q2.

 

[Chocochip]

Fun:
VW ID.3 is already on the streets of Denmark "Order Yours Today"
https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1270331078285447169

So the rumours are true: batteries not included!

 

[oldTAVguy]

Fun:
VW ID.3 is already on the streets of Denmark "Order Yours Today"
https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1270331078285447169

I want one or two.

 

[wipster]

Elon definitely planned to be out of Tesla by now, focused entirely on SpaceX. For now I think he'll just shift more of his time to non-Tesla endeavors.

Once Y is ramped on 3 continents, truck and semi are out......what's left?

Don't forget Tesla Energy... there is a huge amount of market and product growth there, perhaps more than Tesla Motors (and in conjunction with TM). Tesla flows in Elon's blood, I don't think he will or can ever get bored with it. He may (and probably should) delegate more, but he ain't never not leavin' (triple negative, so ha!).

 

[dc_h]

Steve Jobs is Dead & APPL is still minting monies

One common attribute of Jobs and Elon, is hiring top talent. I think 5-10 years down the road, if Elon backs away from Tesla, it will have a very long path of profitability ahead. Maybe not as long as GE and the various Standard Oil companies, but I think Tesla has many years of rapid growth and decades of profit growth.

 

[ZeApelido]

Battery Day slogan?

 

[Chocochip]

One common attribute of Jobs and Elon, is hiring top talent. I think 5-10 years down the road, if Elon backs away from Tesla, it will have a very long path of profitability ahead. Maybe not as long as GE and the various Standard Oil companies, but I think Tesla has many years of rapid growth and decades of profit growth.

I remember that, for quite a while after Steve Jobs died, several of his lieutenants (incl. obviously Tim Cook) kept mentioning "Apple's DNA" as a reference to the culture that Jobs managed to ingrain into the company. I see the same thing with Tesla, maybe even more so: Elon has a very particular way of approaching challenges, and I would assume that after being exposed to that approach long enough, Tesla's top employees will continue implementing it.

What seems very clear, however, is that Elon will not choose to leave Tesla until at least all the things he already talked about (Robotaxi fleet, the Semi, the 2nd gen Roadster, the Cybertruck) are a reality. He's clearly passionate about these projects and wants them to come true! Remember Jay Leno's Garage? It was supposed to be about the Cybertruck... but he showed up in the Semi, then raved about the Roadster! Yeah, nah, he'll be around for a while...

 

[LN1_Casey]

Battery Day slogan?

View attachment 549688

Personal experience?


Talking about BFR, people.

 

[Krugerrand]

He could lose interest in Tesla far sooner than that for reasons none of us may be able to comprehend at this point. Of course, everyone retires or dies. Depending on how the exit goes it could be just fine for the brand. For example, Walt Disney died of cancer. What it is harder to fathom is a difficult break up, like a divorce. "I thought we had a great marriage, until I met the younger women he was dating."

And I could get run over by a bus on my way to the dentist next door - like literally next door neighbor that does not require me to walk on any road.

He NEEDS the money from his TSLA shares to finish his life on Mars. That’s a given. So he WILL do whatever it takes to get Tesla to the valuation it needs to be to hit his tranches. If his Mars aspirations change, it’ll be because he wants to go to a different galaxy on The Starship Enterprise.

I’m willing to entertain real possibilities. You haven’t come up with one yet and frankly I don’t think you can because I’ve already chewed on every possibility I could come up with and rejected them all.

I think you’re thinking too much like Jim and not enough like Elon. Elon is easy to read, super predictable and telegraphs if not outright tells you what he’s going to do. He needs Tesla right now and for the next while. He’ll make sure it absolutely trounces everything and everyone in its way. Blind faith targets secured.

 

[LTC_RRR]

So the rumours are true: batteries not included!

And some assembly required