Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

If they release P/D numbers premarket on the 2nd, we are going to see some wild swings in the weekly options which expire that day, and some huge opportunities for traders.

It all depends on whether Tesla wants to avoid having a big effect on the options market. Do we have any evidence from past publication dates that they care or don't care?

Lately, it seems Tesla releases news on Fridays. Not sure if it is intentional though.

Tesla should release numbers EOD Thursday 2nd. (Thats my wish ... Markets reopen Mon 6th) . With 27th and 28th being the weekend, and when most of the last deliveries will occur. I think 2nd is definitely doable.

 

[elasalle]

If Tesla manages even a $1 in profit in Q2 despite the coronavirus I think the market will go nuts. That means S&P inclusion but more importantly solid odds of profitability from that point onwards.

Probably not a coincidence that Chanos was making the rounds. Another article brought up Adam Jonas's downgrade and even had nerve to discuss old Gordie the Shortie.

Gordie was in my Ameritrade feeds like spam yesterday -- like 4-5 headlines

 

[Nocturnal]

Gordie was in my Ameritrade feeds like spam yesterday -- like 4-5 headlines

It's a joke. Bearish or not he doesn't warrant that sort of attention. The media is just desperate to find people who are still bearish.

Tesla’s Q2: Johnson said Tesla investors should be bracing for brutal second-quarter numbers given the state of the global auto market." data-reactid="20">Tesla’s Q2: Johnson said Tesla investors should be bracing for brutal second-quarter numbers given the state of the global auto market.

“Tesla’s accounting is always tricky. They recognize a lot of things and they pull a lot of things forward. But if you just look at the registration data, in Colorado, which is the most generous EV market, their sales in April-May are down 73%, he told PreMarket Prep.

Johnson said recent numbers in the rest of the U.S., Europe and China also paint a bearish picture for Tesla’s quarter.

Johnson’s Tesla Bear Thesis: Tesla shares have been on an incredible run in the last year, but Johnson remains bearish on the stock." data-reactid="23">Johnson’s Tesla Bear Thesis: Tesla shares have been on an incredible run in the last year, but Johnson remains bearish on the stock.

“I couldn’t be more bearish. Look, Tesla is completely detached from reality. The stock has kicked my butt. I’ll admit that, and people laugh when I say I’m bearish,” he said Tuesday.

Yes we do Gordie, yes we do.

 

[replicant]

U.S. probes touchscreen failures in Tesla Model S cars

 

[oldTAVguy]

U.S. probes touchscreen failures in Tesla Model S cars

If this is all they have to bitch about, what a waste.

 

[Twooz]

My thoughts exactly. All of my accounts will be in TSLA 100% by the end of the day Tues June 30 (barring some macro catastrophe) just in case something gets leaked early.

I hope it wont be Tuesday as I wont get paid until Wednesday ... The horror if I miss out on a 10% jump from positive delivery numbers....

 

[EV forever]

I hope it wont be Tuesday as I wont get paid until Wednesday ... The horror if I miss out on a 10% jump from positive delivery numbers....

10%??? When do you become so bearish?

 

[Knightshade]

With 425 full-time employees (with full benefits) they had better be producing batteries for more than 13,000 measly cars a year!

So I checked the source you provided and see that it is deeply flawed.

Well, it's the same source used in the post I was replying to.... and folks seemed to think the positive stuff was right, but apparently the less positive stuff is deeply flawed

(in seriousness- I think it's just a lot of folks guessing from incomplete info in both directions).... but if they're able to output half a million batteries from the tiny Kato spot they wasted a LOT of money on Giga1.

I could buy they will have enough for expected Plaid S demand (which 13k/yr seems low on for at least the first year or two as some older Performance S owners wanna upgrade)- but they're gonna need a "real" factory and lines for new tech batteries for the mass production stuff like 3/Y and CT.

And Elon already said Semi batteries- which presumably will also be new tech- are coming from Nevada, not California.

 

[StealthP3D]

Did anybody else notice him shaking when talking Tesla. Not joking. As much as a delusional, arrogant, blowhard he is and should be imprisoned for making false statements...

Prison might be a significant upgrade to his current living situation. I've seen college students and drug addicts that had nicer accommodations! Madoff's cell even has room service! And now that I think about it, this explains a lot...the beady little eyes like a laboratory rat, the makeshift curtains to keep out the light, the odd way he seems to be undergoing a transformation from old man to old woman, the delusional self-aggrandizement, - I'm thinking he might be an addict, perhaps addicted to chemicals produced in his own body when a company goes bankrupt and he has a short position. A sad, sad end for a human being.

 

[Knightshade]

You really think demand for a Plaid Model S, wide body setup for racing, is going to be significantly higher than 8,500/year? (It will likely cost between $125-175k.)

Initially? Yeah.

P100D was right in that ballpark for a while after all.

The 'gotta have the fastest big sedan' folks are gonna want to upgrade.

I mean, Porsche has significantly more demand for their EV than 8500/yr and it's twice as expensive and arguably not as good as the CURRENT S, let alone a plaid one.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

U.S. probes touchscreen failures in Tesla Model S cars

Huge tesla bull here but... for crying out loud tesla, get your ass into gear and fix this. I have a model S that is likely affected, and i get the odd reboot or slow boot-up time, and I know one day the chip will die.
Its a needlessly stupid problem, likely due to excessive logging which tesla *should just turn off*, but they REALLY need to offer to replace the chip for users affected.
lets not forget, this ONLY affects the premioum vehicle (S/X) EARLY ADOPTER tesla fanboys like me. Treating them badly is a silly mistake to make.

Even if they offered to replace the chip for parts-cost only (not an inflated full MCU replacement), I'd go for that. Frankly this is a screw-up, and Elon needs to realize how bad this looks. This is a headline that should never have happened.

 

[SO16]

Huge tesla bull here but... for crying out loud tesla, get your ass into gear and fix this. I have a model S that is likely affected, and i get the odd reboot or slow boot-up time, and I know one day the chip will die.
Its a needlessly stupid problem, likely due to excessive logging which tesla *should just turn off*, but they REALLY need to offer to replace the chip for users affected.
lets not forget, this ONLY affects the premioum vehicle (S/X) EARLY ADOPTER tesla fanboys like me. Treating them badly is a silly mistake to make.

Even if they offered to replace the chip for parts-cost only (not an inflated full MCU replacement), I'd go for that. Frankly this is a screw-up, and Elon needs to realize how bad this looks. This is a headline that should never have happened.

@EV-Fixme could help you replace the EMMC on your MCU1 for I think around a few hundred.

But yes, Tesla should offer that fix for free. It’s a headline that could easily be avoided for probably less than the negative publicity cost.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, it's the same source used in the post I was replying to.... and folks seemed to think the positive stuff was right, but apparently the less positive stuff is deeply flawed

Rational people will judge not by how positive or negative the speculation is but by whether the information fits the known available facts.

(in seriousness- I think it's just a lot of folks guessing from incomplete info in both directions).... but if they're able to output half a million batteries from the tiny Kato spot they wasted a LOT of money on Giga1.

1,300 is a far cry from 500,000. The truth lies somewhere in between. I'm thinking the 1,300 number is off by a factor of 5-10. However, given it's location, it's pretty clear the Kato Rd. facility is a manufacturing development line that they can replicate elsewhere and it might take a year or two to fully develop the processes and get it up to maximum capacity.

And Elon already said Semi batteries- which presumably will also be new tech- are coming from Nevada, not California.

I suspect semi batteries will come from Nevada, at least the vast majority of them. This doesn't mean the manufacturing processes won't be developed elsewhere. Also, things can change quickly in this business that is developing so quickly so I prefer not to speculate about things we have so little to go on.

 

[Boomer19]

adam dumbass’s selloff has begun

 

[Tslynk67]

Huge tesla bull here but... for crying out loud tesla, get your ass into gear and fix this. I have a model S that is likely affected, and i get the odd reboot or slow boot-up time, and I know one day the chip will die.
Its a needlessly stupid problem, likely due to excessive logging which tesla *should just turn off*, but they REALLY need to offer to replace the chip for users affected.
lets not forget, this ONLY affects the premioum vehicle (S/X) EARLY ADOPTER tesla fanboys like me. Treating them badly is a silly mistake to make.

Even if they offered to replace the chip for parts-cost only (not an inflated full MCU replacement), I'd go for that. Frankly this is a screw-up, and Elon needs to realize how bad this looks. This is a headline that should never have happened.

Yeah, I agree with you. On the whole, Tesla do the right thing, but sometimes the have spectacular fails that turn into overblown headlines. This is one, the battery range degradation via OTA another. Not many cars are affected and Tesla could easily have reached out to those affected and just sorted it out. Even some kind of compromise where the owner pays the parts costs might be acceptable in some cases.

And regardless of the short-term impact on the share price, this might put doubt into the heads of people that older Teslas aren't a good proposition second-hand. It's stupid.

On the other hand, I'll allow Elon to wait until they post Q2 profit, then take a warranty hit in Q3, if that's OK?

 

[Tslynk67]

well, Max-P is $985 this week and there're more puts at $1000 than calls, so some motivation for some upwards manipulation for once:

 

[Unpilot]

Damn it!

Aircraft carrier order....CANCELED
Anti-Gravity research....PUT ON HOLD
Wall-mart application......FILLED OUT

Easy come...easy go I guess.

 

[SOULPEDL]

If Tesla manages even a $1 in profit in Q2 despite the coronavirus I think the market will go nuts. That means S&P inclusion but more importantly solid odds of profitability from that point onwards.

Probably not a coincidence that Chanos was making the rounds. Another article brought up Adam Jonas's downgrade and even had nerve to discuss old Gordie the Shortie.

I met someone this weekend who was laughing at the thought of a million mile battery and couldn't understand why there were so many used Tesla's out there. So there you go, they have a reader it seems. (How that got started, IDK.) I had to hold back my lol in his face, he claimed to be an expert on battery technology and been flying electric planes for a long, long time! I literally thought he meant full sized.

Then I told him that he's likely hearing FUD from the oil industry, and he got angry as if I was patronizing him. "I can tell fake news, come-on I wasn't born yesterday." It was as though I was having some political argument (not to be mentioned here), only about batteries. He was of early retirement age.

Can we just all agree that Chocolate is the best ice cream on the planet?

 

[tinm]

If this is all they have to bitch about, what a waste.

I finally got around to replacing the failing eMMC chip in my 2013 S's MCU1.

Replacement cost? $81,000. Expensive, but they threw in new wheels, a blue paint job, white seats, an additional motor, 402 miles of range, and way better 0-60 times.

 

[Unpilot]

Can we just all agree that Chocolate is the best ice cream on the planet?

With peanut butter...yes.