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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
To drop or not to drop... that is the question. Will TSLA drop back near $1000 after the current run-up, or is the run-up fueled by more than short covering and S&P front-running?
How about a third possibility? -- shorts and S&P are driving the run-up now, but other catalysts will replace them soon.
Index funds will be forced to buy TSLA at any price after S&P 500 inclusion, so the height of the run-up will depend on when current longs get unnerved by it and sell. If they HODL long enough, other catalysts will appear, such as:
1) new factory announcements and Shanghai/Berlin progress
2) Q3 production and delivery report (Sept 2-3), likely a record-breaker
3) Battery/Shareholder Day (Sept 22), which Elon said will be "mind-blowing"
4) maybe new product reveals at Battery day: Plaid S/X? Roadster 2?
5) Q3 earnings report (late Sept), likely another record-breaker
Barring disaster (earthquake, terrorism), #1-5 seem enough to keep the stock pretty high. But there is one more whopper of a catalyst in which few people seem to believe, even though Elon has been adamant that it is coming by year-end.
Personally, I believe Elon. Yes I know he has been too optimistic before, but every day of his team's progress brings him more information on which to base his estimates, and he learns from his mistakes.
So here is my advice to skittish longs who want to run with the money when they see TSLA galloping upward:
How about a third possibility? -- shorts and S&P are driving the run-up now, but other catalysts will replace them soon.
Index funds will be forced to buy TSLA at any price after S&P 500 inclusion, so the height of the run-up will depend on when current longs get unnerved by it and sell. If they HODL long enough, other catalysts will appear, such as:
1) new factory announcements and Shanghai/Berlin progress
2) Q3 production and delivery report (Sept 2-3), likely a record-breaker
3) Battery/Shareholder Day (Sept 22), which Elon said will be "mind-blowing"
4) maybe new product reveals at Battery day: Plaid S/X? Roadster 2?
5) Q3 earnings report (late Sept), likely another record-breaker
Barring disaster (earthquake, terrorism), #1-5 seem enough to keep the stock pretty high. But there is one more whopper of a catalyst in which few people seem to believe, even though Elon has been adamant that it is coming by year-end.
Personally, I believe Elon. Yes I know he has been too optimistic before, but every day of his team's progress brings him more information on which to base his estimates, and he learns from his mistakes.
So here is my advice to skittish longs who want to run with the money when they see TSLA galloping upward:
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Bet that’s how the shorts have felt for a while now. Except the other way around.
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You sir, did at least one thing right.
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Almost a third of the funds are earmarked for fighting climate change and, together with the bloc’s next 1 trillion-euro, seven-year budget, will constitute the biggest green stimulus package in history. All expenditure must be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s goal of cutting greenhouse gases.
Almost a third of the funds are earmarked for fighting climate change and, together with the bloc’s next 1 trillion-euro, seven-year budget, will constitute the biggest green stimulus package in history. All expenditure must be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s goal of cutting greenhouse gases.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The terms of the 2018 CEO Compensation plan are pretty specific. There's a long, detailed section in the PDF version, I think it may have been in the 10-K so I'd start by finding that and reading there.
Lol. Thoughts:
- Elon has little motivation to help the S&P Committee. Or Moody's. Or CNBC.
- Elon can't sell for 5-yrs after the equity grant vests. He'll be a Texan long before that day arrives.
- Elon borrows against his stock to fund his living expenses. I'd do the same to execute Stock Options.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Exactly my take. Notice how high the 'naked shorting' was at the 64th percentile? Shareholders aren't selling, plus very few are lending their shares. Enough of an effect that MMs had trouble locating 'borrows' today, hence the uptick in their 'naked' short selling ( shh, don't tell @Singuy ). And this was on a day with remarkably LOW shorting, but MMs STILL couldn't locate shares to short...
Hoohoo, this is gonna get big, fast...
Berlin/Tradegate: 1.469,00 Euro is $1,680.84 USD
NASDAQ Pre-Market High: $1,694.49 (04:18:31 AM EDT)
Cheers!NASDAQ Pre-Market High: $1,694.49 (04:18:31 AM EDT)
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Blimey, missed yesterday's fun a bit as I was at a friend's having a serious beer-drinking session...
I wanted to buy a couple of weeklies at the beginning of the session, but decided it would gap up quickly, so spent my remaining cash on 10 trading shares at $1514 in pre-market. That turned out OK!
What's the plan from here, chaps, skip the 1700's altogether?
I wanted to buy a couple of weeklies at the beginning of the session, but decided it would gap up quickly, so spent my remaining cash on 10 trading shares at $1514 in pre-market. That turned out OK!
What's the plan from here, chaps, skip the 1700's altogether?
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
- Elon can't sell for 5-yrs after the equity grant vests. He'll be a Texan long before that day arrives.
- Elon borrows against his stock to fund his living expenses. I'd do the same to execute Stock Options.
My understanding was that taxes would be payable at execution. ie the cashless exercising option 1 in the agreement with taxes and the exercise amount being paid for in sold shares as part of the transaction:
Exercise Methods:
1. Cashless: sufficient shares to cover exercise prices and taxes are simultaneously sold upon exercise of options; and
2. Cash: exercise price is paid in cash upon exercise of options
https://tesla.gcs-web.com/static-files/55362f0a-ee8a-4fcc-ba11-cc09194974b6
Once exercised he then can't sell the shares for 5 years. However I agree with you that he would probably borrow against his shares and go with option 2.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The new 33k Euro 500e with 199 mile WLTP range and these two made in Italy Jeep PHEVs are Fiats plan to reduce their corporate European CO2 emissions and therefore reduce pooling payments to Tesla.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Wow, 199 WLTP? For (E) 33k? What's that in real mileage, something like 160? $37.7k for 160 mile range?
That's... real bad. Dunno how they're going to actually sell enough to offset their fleet. I think they'll still be buying as many credits as they can from Tesla for a long, long time.
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