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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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A radically superior product is gonna find many more buyers than predicted by past experience with inferior products. <snip> The world has seen nothing like them before, and most people can't imagine them before they experience them.
Well said (bolding mine)...this is the essence of Tesla’s secret sauce, the generating power and foundation underpinning the strengthening sentiment. It’s what differentiates Tesla from what people have experienced as ephemeral momo stories.

This recognition will continual to build viral excitement throughout this decade, which is likely to be widely known as the Tesla Twenties as the decade wanes: Cathy Wood at ARK-Invest has articulated the key disruptive innovation platforms, and Tesla is leveraging way more of them than anybody else - AI, robotics, autonomy, energy - in ways that “most people can’t imagine them before they experience them.”
 
Normally, I'd say a lower stock price leads to more speculation and higher volatility. However, in case of Tesla, since MM seem to have enjoyed days of low volume and big swings in price that scare the *sugar* out of some retails, I think that more participants in TSLA and smaller swings = good. More people who can afford to buy the dips = good. TSLA is like that $2 downtown strip club; it can't get any shadier no matter how much stuff you throw at it.
Actually it can....if you go to the champagne room....a 'friend' told me.
 
Some of yesterdays $1600 strike Calls held for today. There are now Puts coming in at that level so I expect this to start being forced down or at least an attempt. Calls with a $1700 strike are the candy of the day. If we go up over $1650 the delta hedging will have to start again meaning more rise. I think the $1700 Calls are expected to be easy money for the seller. Can't wait for the after lunch moment when the MM comes back to his desk and goes "F$CK". If there isn't another 10% gain I think Friday will be flat or down.

Open Interest this morning. Note Max Pain came up to the upper 1400s.
THUR open interest.png


The volume chart shows activity on the $1600 Calls which could be profit taking and MMs roll up to $1650 - $1700 with a spike in volume there.
volume so far.png


I have bought back my PUT spreads for pennies and I sold a few more Call spreads well above current SP. With the profits from the Puts spreads, worst case would be a zero gain week. Best case..... nice.
 
TSLA is up almost 20% in 2 days since it announced their stock split :)

Yes, though it can be argued it should have done so straight away after an amazing ER instead of dropping and being pinned like a voodoo doll.

But then it can be argued that rise occurred prior to the actual ER with the short shorts availability.

And then it can be argued that it’s just not worth arguing. *pooped*
 
What do you mean by TSLA being illogically priced? I see a valuation of 305 billion, which is 4 times VW and 10 times Ford. Should that be 2 trillion right now? Markets are forward looking, but there’s a limit to their horizon.

I don't get the comparison to VW (and especially Ford). How can you compare a business with huge rapid growth potential to businesses that are actually shrinking as far as the eye can see? If you assume Elon is going to continue to innovate to make electric cars constantly cheaper (and therefore the standard), and use VW's own projections for the number of EV's they hope to produce in 5 and 10 years, you will see a massive shift from VW sales to Tesla sales.

Comparing the valuations of two companies with such different probable outcomes simply makes no sense.
 
What do you mean by TSLA being illogically priced? I see a valuation of 305 billion, which is 4 times VW and 10 times Ford. Should that be 2 trillion right now? Markets are forward looking, but there’s a limit to their horizon.

I mean TSLA going down (mostly) and up (occasionally) without me being able to understand why.

If 305 billion is the correct valuation today - I have no idea.

But TSLA going down on good news - smells funny to me.

Definately amateur hour - but that is where I am.
 
Yes, though it can be argued it should have done so straight away after an amazing ER instead of dropping and being pinned like a voodoo doll.

But then it can be argued that rise occurred prior to the actual ER with the short shorts availability.

And then it can be argued that it’s just not worth arguing. *pooped*
You are def 100% correct on all fronts....i look at it as it was an opportunity to add since the drop was unwarranted on all levels. Happy to have been able to add my last 12 at $1388. It was just a matter of time before the rocket ship launched again :)
 
I mean TSLA going down (mostly) and up (occasionally) without me being able to understand why.

If 305 billion is the correct valuation today - I have no idea.

But TSLA going down on good news - smells funny to me.

Definately amateur hour - but that is where I am.

I now understand what you meant. You were referring to the price movements and not to the actual pricing (valuation).


I don't get the comparison to VW (and especially Ford). How can you compare a business with huge rapid growth potential to businesses that are actually shrinking as far as the eye can see? If you assume Elon is going to continue to innovate to make electric cars constantly cheaper (and therefore the standard), and use VW's own projections for the number of EV's they hope to produce in 5 and 10 years, you will see a massive shift from VW sales to Tesla sales.

Comparing the valuations of two companies with such different probable outcomes simply makes no sense.

I completely agree with you on the massive advantage Tesla has compared to VW and F in many areas and its huge growth potential, and the market sees it too, That’s why TSLA is now priced at 305 billion versus 73 billion for VW, even though they sell 20 times as many cars. One can argue whether the difference in valuation should be even higher at this point in time, but I don’t think Tesla’s valuation is ‘illogical’, as @Christine600 wrote (but he/she apparantly meant something else).
 
I completely agree with you on the massive advantage Tesla has compared to VW and F in many areas and its huge growth potential, and the market sees it too, That’s why TSLA is now priced at 305 billion versus 73 billion for VW, even though they sell 20 times as many cars. One can argue whether the difference in valuation should be even higher at this point in time, but I don’t think Tesla’s valuation is ‘illogical’, as @Christine600 wrote (but he/she apparantly meant something else).

Valuation is a non-intuitive thing. To understand high valuation companies you only need to understand one thing:

It takes money to make money. Everyone wants to get a piece of a revenue stream that is growing that quickly. It's not a Ponzi scheme or a bubble, it's people fighting for the right to own that revenue stream.

The relative number of cars they produced last year is irrelevant.
 
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