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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
ThisStockGood
Owner of Model S 70 2015-2024, Model 3 SR 2024-
How about: Don't sell anything until you absolutely need the funds. The other strategy is to have some of your money in "diversified" stocks. Because they are barely appreciating, you won't feel bad selling them.
Well I’m not the expert on this but a long shot, @FrankSG (I think) wrote it up well a few weeks back.
In simplest terms, the MM’s need to ensure they have the shares to cover all the calls at $2000 (and everything imbetween), so they have to buy more.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
And there's the 'Century' 
EDIT:
$1936* 100.36 ↑5.46%
*Realtime - data as of 04:36 hrs Aug 18, 2020
Cheers to the Longs!*Realtime - data as of 04:36 hrs Aug 18, 2020
EDIT:
Pre-Market High:
$1,939.00
(06:39:00 AM)
$1,939.00
(06:39:00 AM)
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I kept thinking about what fuels the current ramp-up in the SP.
Yeah, sure, the notes yesterday from AJ and Dan Ives helped (maybe helped focus the minds of some institutionals, maybe they were waiting for the "signal", particularly from the typically-bearish Jonas, maybe Dan Ives helped them remember that Tesla is currently scooping itself a major slice of the huge Chinese auto market), but that wouldn't account for 10% in one day, on top of the shorty blood bath from last week.
It could also be a lot of FOMO from both retail and institutional investors with all the upcoming announcements and events (5-for-1 split, S&P500 inclusion, Battery Day, possibly Q3 deliveries...)
But interestingly, the psychological effect of owning whole shares of TSLA by retail investors with limited cash, which the split was supposed to address... may be currently addressed, at least in part. This is strictly concerning retail investors with brokers that allow fractional share trading, so almost exclusively in the US: while not in that situation, I would also feel uncomfortable about buying / owning part of a share in any company, so if TSLA looked to me like a good investment but my cash situation meant that I had to either just buy one share and be left with very little for additional buys of anything else, or I had to just give up on investing in TSLA, I probably would simply have decided to look elsewhere (buy "cheaper" stocks). But the recent announcement of the upcoming split changed that paradigm. Retail investors can now take a fresh look at TSLA and, importantly, be ok with owning fractional shares of TSLA as long as they hold multiples of 1/5 of a share, and only owning fractional shares for a couple of weeks, before Tesla... makes them whole again. And the driving force for making such a buying decision is ever stronger as the SP goes up every day (yes, FOMO!).
The somewhat laboured point I'm trying to make here is that I don't expect a major pop post-split, because some of it is already accounted for in the current upward move. There are of course most of the non-US investors who can't take advantage of the current situation because they can't trade fractional shares... although some of them may figure it makes sense to buy pre-split, even if it's a stretch (Tesla stretch?), and sell a few post-split shares at a later time. Now, importantly, I also don't expect the stock to drop post-split, it will probably go up, but not by a lot. Maybe 5% in one week (excluding the possibility of an S&P inclusion announcement).
Yeah, sure, the notes yesterday from AJ and Dan Ives helped (maybe helped focus the minds of some institutionals, maybe they were waiting for the "signal", particularly from the typically-bearish Jonas, maybe Dan Ives helped them remember that Tesla is currently scooping itself a major slice of the huge Chinese auto market), but that wouldn't account for 10% in one day, on top of the shorty blood bath from last week.
It could also be a lot of FOMO from both retail and institutional investors with all the upcoming announcements and events (5-for-1 split, S&P500 inclusion, Battery Day, possibly Q3 deliveries...)
But interestingly, the psychological effect of owning whole shares of TSLA by retail investors with limited cash, which the split was supposed to address... may be currently addressed, at least in part. This is strictly concerning retail investors with brokers that allow fractional share trading, so almost exclusively in the US: while not in that situation, I would also feel uncomfortable about buying / owning part of a share in any company, so if TSLA looked to me like a good investment but my cash situation meant that I had to either just buy one share and be left with very little for additional buys of anything else, or I had to just give up on investing in TSLA, I probably would simply have decided to look elsewhere (buy "cheaper" stocks). But the recent announcement of the upcoming split changed that paradigm. Retail investors can now take a fresh look at TSLA and, importantly, be ok with owning fractional shares of TSLA as long as they hold multiples of 1/5 of a share, and only owning fractional shares for a couple of weeks, before Tesla... makes them whole again. And the driving force for making such a buying decision is ever stronger as the SP goes up every day (yes, FOMO!).
The somewhat laboured point I'm trying to make here is that I don't expect a major pop post-split, because some of it is already accounted for in the current upward move. There are of course most of the non-US investors who can't take advantage of the current situation because they can't trade fractional shares... although some of them may figure it makes sense to buy pre-split, even if it's a stretch (Tesla stretch?), and sell a few post-split shares at a later time. Now, importantly, I also don't expect the stock to drop post-split, it will probably go up, but not by a lot. Maybe 5% in one week (excluding the possibility of an S&P inclusion announcement).
Yes, that's my expectation as well: buy the rumour and sell the news (I actually don't see a huge drop; but a mild drop, yes) because it will take a while for most non-technical folks to figure out what that stuff actually meant. Which is why I am currently trying to learn as much as I can about the technical side of Li-ion battery developments (incl. Dahn group's recent progress, and others).
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Advice to shorts: when you've just experienced an earthquake and the ocean water seems to be pulling away, don't go to the beach to look at the exposed sea floor. Rather, RUN FOR THE HILLS!
Question to the folks who analyzed the Feb 4th rise and drop @Papafox @Artful Dodger @StealthP3D and others
Are we going to see the shenanigans of Tuesday Feb 4th at play again today? It is also a Tuesday and the SP seems to be running away from the MMs. Or is this a completely different beast now?
Are we going to see the shenanigans of Tuesday Feb 4th at play again today? It is also a Tuesday and the SP seems to be running away from the MMs. Or is this a completely different beast now?
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Debt, borrow the money & keep the shares?
Difficult in UK as they changed the rules, so it's no longer dependent on an ID and optionally being alive, nor on savings. It's all predicated on income from a steady long term job. I may have to explain those concepts:-
Steady and Long Term - not gigs, project-based or zero-hours jobs. You are a permanent employee (until you aren't). There are no worries from competitors, other countries, Brexit, negative interest rates, automation, pandemics.
Job - doing labour or activities (optionally being paid) for your time or knowledge.
Income:- in taking a loan this must exceed outgoings. So that's most people stuffed.
mejojo
Active Member
The squeezing seems like it would delay the S&P 500 inclusion....it would seem unlikely to force institutional purchasing at this time.
Is anyone planning on buying PUTs for the other side of the hump? What dates/strikes seem rational?
Is anyone planning on buying PUTs for the other side of the hump? What dates/strikes seem rational?
Just saw this about Giga Berlin progress. Maybe already posted here, but WOW is all I can say
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1295665513725657088?s=21
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1295665513725657088?s=21
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Bless that one guy who showed the google sheets updated stock ticker trick.
I did it also for the German market, and it's great to go and look at how everything adjusts with this steady rise.
I did it also for the German market, and it's great to go and look at how everything adjusts with this steady rise.
If anybody has a sell order for only $2,000 they better mean it, mine are all at $9,980.
Spot on analysis.
Current pre-market suggests we could be repeating Feb delta-hedging squeeze. The question is what happens after the split+sp500+batteryday combo. You're probably right there is a risk of a drop after the battery day, but our momentum is too strong to go significantly down unless there is a huge short-term squeeze.
On the one hand, there are too many short term catalysts to justify realizing gains right now. On the other hand, we cannot go up 100-200 bucks every day going forward. At some point we're in the bubble territory if this rally goes on until battery day. Not that it really matters to long-term holders waiting for 5k or more.
It's worth remembering that the valuation doesn't need to be attached to reality in the short term (look at NKLA). Let's assume TSLA has a fair value of $1800 right now if you ask bulls here. There is no reason why we couldn't rally to $3000 or more if comparing current TSLA valuation to real bubble stocks. Just my opinion.
Nah, don't want to borrow - what-if something happens and the market crashes again, that would be an incredibly stressful scenario. Better to cash-out what's needed and be secure IMO.
I'm going to keep the day job a bit longer anyway, will fund my fleet of Teslas (MY, CT & R2 - already decided to keep my MX too)
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Surely you just need enough cash for mortgage and living expenses for a time? 6, 12, 36 months. Whatever your comfort / risk.
Goes back to the 4% a year thing. Market or tesla might crash for 2 years. Unlikely longer. Possible upside in that two years is high.
A bit of a try by the MM's to create some panic and a drop? not unusual in pre-market...
Now here's something that I was told by @NicoV over in the Tax-Split non-US implications thread.
Our broker advised to consider repositioning some calls as some of the new strike-prices could be a bit illiquid. At the time I didn't think about it too much, but actually I've got October calls for $1380 and $1820, the rest are all nice multiples (4/9 $1500, Jun 22 $1250, Jun 22 $3500), but those first two calls will be adapted to strikes of $276 and $364 - the options chain is going to be a mess and indeed, who'd be looking to buy on those strikes?
So thinking to roll these to a "nicer" number post-spltterino. Just wanted to gives the heads-up to the rest of you.
Now here's something that I was told by @NicoV over in the Tax-Split non-US implications thread.
Our broker advised to consider repositioning some calls as some of the new strike-prices could be a bit illiquid. At the time I didn't think about it too much, but actually I've got October calls for $1380 and $1820, the rest are all nice multiples (4/9 $1500, Jun 22 $1250, Jun 22 $3500), but those first two calls will be adapted to strikes of $276 and $364 - the options chain is going to be a mess and indeed, who'd be looking to buy on those strikes?
So thinking to roll these to a "nicer" number post-spltterino. Just wanted to gives the heads-up to the rest of you.
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