Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Given all the facts we know, it would be hard to imagine that Elon is not aware of these short-selling market-maker shenanigans. That's why I find it relevant that he has wisely saved enough shareholder authorized shares to pull a 2 for 1 split at any time it would be most beneficial. This means he (the BoD) can call for another split without warning and without needing further shareholder authorization. While the short-sellers may not be the sharpest pencils in the box, the MM's and their short-selling activities are in a different class and they probably learned their lesson the time around. If not, we get another split (and they get more pain all over again).

Can't image what you're talking about. Unless... it's Zebra season!

TL.0 is 386.35 Euro in Berlin/Tradegate. That's $460 or about $2300/5

Cheers!

 

[samppa]

Flatex works for me (although it does show a loss since last Friday enough to make a grown man cry).

Now it's showing updated share count, but still showing pre-split prices for purchase price. I'm wondering if I sell now, what will show up on selling sheet for capital gains tax.. might be a chance to do some tax optimization selling here Only problem is I don't plan to sell for a few years..

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Global Top 20 July 2020

 

[chrsk]

2330, or 466!

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

There are few posts discussing the seemly "low" China July Model 3 numbers. Is anyone concerned?
Tesla China Model 3, July production: 12,571, delivery: 11,014
The sustained production rate is ~3,150/week. I remembered there were rumored reports a couple of months ago to reach 4,000 per week by June. It appeared the 4,000/week rate is just the capacity, not sustained rate.

That’s the wrong question. The correct question is: ‘In July 2019 Tesla delivered 1,800 Model 3 in China. In July 2020 Tesla delivered 11,024 Model 3 in China. Should the competition be concerned?

 

[Robocop]

View attachment 582685

Not going to actually short F, because there's more gains to be had in long TSLA. BUT, what year do we expect Ford to go bankrupt?

 

[MABMAB]

I've done it 100 times correctly but this am my tired mind forgot to convert Euro to Dollar when looking at Frankfurt prices...

 

[RobStark]

Not going to actually short F, because there's more gains to be had in long TSLA. BUT, what year do we expect Ford to go bankrupt?

A better question is what year do we expect VW or a Chinese OEM to buy Ford for pennies on the dollar.

Politicians in DC won't like it but preferable to all Ford and Ford dealer employees losing their job.

 

[UncaNed]

Losses from call options were often 3 months to 18 months out (the LEAPS always being January or the following January). But plenty of sub-1 year projections. Partly a loss due to a very slow TSLA drop in stock price, but also simply time decay. After losses, became more conservative (long stock) but sometimes sold put spreads which benefited from time decay, rather than get hurt. Those were successful overall. Just happy TSLA still has room to grow, but a little bummed I'm at like 25% of the shares I used to have. I simply didn't know what I was doing then, painful lesson learned!

Thanks for sharing. Do you think making the same bets today would be more risky or less risky?

 

[EVMeister]

I've done it 100 times correctly but this am my tired mind forgot to convert Euro to Dollar when looking at Frankfurt prices...

I know. Converting from € to $ and also x5. It's a hard life.

 

[Artful Dodger]

394.00 Euro at TradeGate/Berlin moments ago... that'd be about $2,345.30 USD last Friday.

EDIT 396.00 now... and 138,761 shares Volume already!

 

[jpsgoneev]

View attachment 582685

Ford seals its fate .... its business plan in ironic contrast to Tesla.

‘No advantage’ to having battery plant, Ford says
A Trefis analysis from January concluded that Tesla’s Gigafactory is paying dividends. The study, published in Forbes, estimated the automaker’s battery costs fell 45 percent from 2016 to 2019, an average drop of $7,000 per vehicle.

But Ford argues that its reliance on suppliers also could reduce prices.

“It gives us the ability to access the latest technology and innovation across multiple suppliers,” Thai-Tang said. “So I know exactly what the state of the art is from the Korean suppliers, the Japanese suppliers, the Chinese suppliers, and I’m able to compare notes across them maybe better than they can. And then, of course, we have the competitive tension with dealing with multiple suppliers, which allows us to drive the cost down.”

Despite its insistence that the supply base is prepared, Ford has said tight battery supplies would limit the upcoming Mustang Mach-E to 50,000 vehicles globally in its first year of production.

Still, the company is hesitant to lock itself into a certain type of battery, with Thai-Tang citing Toyota Motor Corp. as a cautionary tale.

“They invested to vertically integrate nickel-metal hydride batteries for their hybrids,” he said. “And after spending over $1 billion to do that, the technology shifted to lithium ion, and they were among the last to switch over. I don’t want to put Ford in that position.”
[end excerpt]

 

[Robocop]

Thanks for sharing. Do you think making the same bets today would be more risky or less risky?

I mean TSLA is notorious for volatility. The SP500 thing *might* help a little. But look at the run up this winter, then covid, then another run up after. So I don't think it's any less risky now. It's more a hindsight is 20/20 thing, if I had made these same bets in March 2020, I'd have $1M. I'm sure some of you made that bet. But what if you made that bet in February? Could've been wiped out in March.

My lessons learned are: longer term > shorter term (more time to be correct), and even if shares aren't as sexy as a 4x return on a call you should keep plenty because in the long run TSLA will succeed, but in the short term it's pretty wild.

Note: I think the chance of straight up TSLA bankruptcy is much lower than a few years ago (basically 0). That risk may be off the table. But a 40-50% drop when you're leveraged (which has literally happened multiple times in the past 2 years) is equivalent.

 

[ProfTournesol]

Looks like we're going for a lift-off today. Germany already almost 7% up with a volume of 145k shares and not even two hours of trading....

[edit]
> 7%

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just hit 399.90 Euro at Berlin/Tradegate. Volume is off the chain at 156.7K shares. Let's see if it can take out 400 Euro before New York opens in about 6 min.

 

[StealthP3D]

Looks like we're going for a lift-off today. Germany already almost 7% up with a volume of 145k shares and not even two hours of trading....

[edit]
> 7%

That's enough to make you think the naked shorts delayed their covering due to the rising prices last week and have been caught in a bind so they are covering in overseas markets before it opens on the NASDAQ.

But of course there is no way to seperate a rise in valuation due to more people finally understanding Tesla's true potential from short covering. Probably a combination of the two.

 

[Mich]

At what time can Robinhood customers start to trade?

 

[MABMAB]

US early premarket opens at about $2300 equivalent

 

[Robocop]

At what time can Robinhood customers start to trade?

9:30 EST I believe (no pre-market for them).

Edit: 6.5 hours from now.