Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Rogstar]

?

 

[ZachF]

And the times of the seasonal peaks depends on geography. For example, in the US:

Power can be shared between different regions with HVDC (or to a lesser extent, HVAC) links, which also simultaneously stabilize regional grids. China's gone big on this, bringing power from deep inland to the densely populated coast.

All of the above factors combine to turn "highly variable" into "surprisingly predictable and manageable".

Believe me, I'm 100% behind a nationwide HVDC grid, it'll be needed...

But when that happens, In the US at least what will end up happening is we will build fields and fields of solar panels and battery banks in the desert SW and ship it everywhere else because it will destroy everything else on cost.

 

[JollyRoger]

Believe me, I'm 100% behind a nationwide HVDC grid, it'll be needed...

But when that happens, In the US at least what will end up happening is we will build fields and fields of solar panels and battery banks in the desert SW and ship it everywhere else because it will destroy everything else on cost.

Why the desert? If you built click together panels over the road network, you would have more than enough surface area to charge the whole of the US, you could also fit the pannels with Led's to indicate accident ahead or a little coil to heat them up to prevent ice formation, better yet you could emit a magnetic field directly out of the road to charge an EV whilst it's driving down the highway. No fields and fields of photovoltaic cells just roads and highways !!

 

[KD2018]

Why the desert? If you built click together panels over the road network, you would have more than enough surface area to charge the whole of the US, you could also fit the pannels with Led's to indicate accident ahead or a little coil to heat them up to prevent ice formation, better yet you could emit a magnetic field directly out of the road to charge an EV whilst it's driving down the highway. No fields and fields of photovoltaic cells just roads and highways !!

Because it is more cost effective?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

VW investing $800m to build electric cars in Tennessee from 2022 - Roadshow

 

[Rogstar]

Why the desert? If you built click together panels over the road network, you would have more than enough surface area to charge the whole of the US, you could also fit the pannels with Led's to indicate accident ahead or a little coil to heat them up to prevent ice formation, better yet you could emit a magnetic field directly out of the road to charge an EV whilst it's driving down the highway. No fields and fields of photovoltaic cells just roads and highways !!

No reason why the road network wouldn't work.
Also, there's a scheme in Turkey where they've installed vertical axis wind turbines next to roads. These rotate in normal wind (obviously) but also use the air moved by large vehicles, in their case, slow speed buses, but a Semi at 70 moves a huge amount of air..... Free power... To charge the trucks?!

 

[anthonyj]

Bought 50 shares at 336.7 in my new swing trading account. What a nonsensical dip. This kind of price action scares away new investors

 

[jhm]

I agree with most of your post, but I think Tesla's primary target should be (and will be) the short haul market - which is more than 70% of the U.S. market. Those are highly concentrated fleets, not individual operators, with significant idle time for individual trucks when trucks can be recharged - while the most profitable long haul market is team-driving where the truck is essentially never idle.

I.e. 'long haul' is a specific niche they should address with their 2nd and 3rd generation vehicles.

The 1st generation Tesla Semi should aim to replace the tens of thousands of trucks polluting cities with short haul duties. That will also trigger legislation and regulation excluding diesel trucks from ports and logistics centers - which will further erode the market position of ICE trucks.

Yes, let me rephrase my point. I'm thinking more about trucks that are capable of long haul (so need 600 mile range) than actually operating those trucks on long-haul routes. Capability of product versus the duty to which the operator will use them. For example, Tesla obviously has a lot of freight to move between Fremont and Sparks, and a 600 mile range semi gets well utilized doing back to back hauls. This sort of duty will be a sweet spot for the Tesla Semi for quite a while, though the 600-mile range semi could in theory haul stuff from shore to shore.

So I suspect we are actually in agreement here.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

View attachment 368831

...but I LIKE Chattanooga! Ah hell...there goes the neighborhood. lol

Dan

 

[StealthP3D]

Hard to maintain such a long upward streak as we've had. Eventually people just get to looking for any excuse possible to profit take.

I reserve 1/3 of my Tesla holdings as regular trading stock. This morning I bought back all the shares I sold last week at 344 and managed to get them at 336. The reason I jumped in this morning is that Tesla has shown so much strength and consistency lately (last week). That tells me large disciplined buyers are accumulating for Q4 results and potential announcements.

I think there is a lot of strength in TSLA right now. Of course the market is pretty volatile so anything can happen but my impression is that smart money already knows Trump colluded with a foreign power and is going down, in some form even if he is allowed to finish out his term, but that doesn't need to disrupt business or international relations much more than it already has. In fact, holding him accountable might be viewed bullishly. As might the unlikeliness of 4 more years. The China factory is a big deal and I think the Chinese are looking forward to the day they don't have to deal with the clown in the big suits.

 

[viridi]

Bought 50 shares at 336.7 in my new swing trading account. What a nonsensical dip. This kind of price action scares away new investors

The dip today is completely nonsensical. Shorts and other FUDsters hammering away. Dana Hull spent the weekend Tweeting about SpaceX layoffs - she really seems to dislike Elon (one has to wonder if there are financial reasons motivating her dislike). Furthermore, you have stories about other manufacturers coming out with EVs down the road and building new plants for EVs (like the VW announcement). Thing is, we have been hearing these stories for years, and hearing about the Tesla killers coming into the market. But, these cars never seem to appear (when manufacturers do come out with EVs, they never seem to live up to the pre-production hype). I am sure the competitors will get it somewhat right at some point. However, where will Tesla be with its vehicles when this competition comes? In my view, Tesla will continue to be well ahead of the competition. Also, what the media seems to not be focusing on (surprise, surprise) is what all this chatter is showing (among other things) is: (i) EVs are here to stay and are the future and (ii) Tesla ALREADY has mass market vehicles in this desirable space, and has a string of proposed vehicles that will blow away the competition.

 

[avoigt]

View attachment 368831

Good to see them starting investing in the US as well.

However its 1k more jobs added to the 2.5k and they plan to deliver first EVs in 2022. 3 years from now...

VW announced a while back to invest over time $91 bn in R&D as well production for EVs. The $ 800m are 0.88% of that investment. How many employees has Tesla in Fremont and Nevada?

Make your own math and put VWs announcement into perspective....

Since a while they are world champions in announcements. Clearly VWs PR department has a strategy to keep the name VW and EVs in the press in order to be seen as a supplier and not losing brand recognition until they are ready to deliver.

Thats a fair strategy and I believe it will work however I measure automakers on what and how many BEVs they deliver to customers today.

 

[Nightshifter]

Task for you for today:

• Count the number of articles in the Washington Post attacking Bezos and Amazon unfairly: X
• Count the number of articles in the Washington Post attacking Elon, Tesla and SpaceX unfairly: Y

You'll find that X is zero, while Y is rather high.

Do you really think Bezos had to make a single phone call or write a single email telling Washington Post staff to not attack their owner-employer, or to suggest that attacking business rivals is fair and square??

Journalistic self-censorship and preferential treatment of owners, and adversarial treatment of business rivals of owners is a well documented and shall I say "common sense" phenomenon ...

Yep. I am 100 percent with you. As the old saying goes: "The guy who pays orders!"

 

[ReflexFunds]

VW announced a while back to invest over time $91 bn in R&D as well production for EVs.

That $91bn was mostly just 5-10 years of commited battery cell purchases. Just PR again. 10 years of cumulative cost of goods is not the same as R&D and capex investment.

 

[elasalle]

Are we going to see 1st Euro deliveries prior to earnings? (maybe shift the date a bit?)

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR:
There are very active threads for alternative energy AND for electric heavy trucks. Use them - no more here today, thank you.

 

[avoigt]

That $91bn was mostly just 5-10 years of commited battery cell purchases. Just PR again. 10 years of cumulative cost of goods is not the same as R&D and capex investment.

To be precise until 2025 $57 bn in R&D and $34 bn in the expansion of electro-mobility. 50 BEVs and 30 PHEV until 2025 are planned. On top $17 bn for Chinese Patners SAIC, FAW etc. Daimler BTW does invest $ 43bn.

Deutschland investiert am meisten – 300 Milliarden Dollar fließen in Elektroautos

No real differentiation what is CapEx from VWs numbers though and I agree the comparison is not fully fair.

I believe VW will continue announce big numbers to make the impression they roll the market with their investment abilities. Money is helpful but won't solve issues around innovation, software and batterie efficiency beside others.

 

[Fact Checking]

That $91bn was mostly just 5-10 years of commited battery cell purchases. Just PR again. 10 years of cumulative cost of goods is not the same as R&D and capex investment.

Exactly.

To put this into perspective: buying $91b of batteries for 10 years means $9.1b per year. VW's yearly revenue is around $260b. I.e. they announced plans for a yearly battery purchase volume of 3-4% of revenue, with an unspecified timetable and ramp-up.

Tesla will likely have more capex in 2020 already than VW plans to spend on batteries alone in 5-10 years...

 

[jhm]

Does anyone know how well prepared the delivery network in Europe is to handle the influx of Model 3?

 

[KarenRei]

Are we going to see 1st Euro deliveries prior to earnings? (maybe shift the date a bit?)

Possible but doubtful. The Glovis Captain doesn't even get to Panama until the 21st. And even after it gets to Belgium there's time between arrival and delivery. That'd be a seriously delayed ER.

Or to put another way, EU deliveries aren't supposed to start until "late February".