Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ReflexFunds]

To be precise until 2025 $57 bn in R&D and $34 bn in the expansion of electro-mobility. 50 BEVs and 30 PHEV until 2025 are planned. On top $17 bn for Chinese Patners SAIC, FAW etc. Daimler BTW does invest $ 43bn.

Deutschland investiert am meisten – 300 Milliarden Dollar fließen in Elektroautos

No real differentiation what is CapEx from VWs numbers though and I agree the comparison is not fully fair.

I believe VW will continue announce big numbers to make the impression they roll the market with their investment abilities. Money is helpful but won't solve issues around innovation, software and batterie efficiency beside others.

That's a mistranslation of the original Reuters data which itself failed to distinguish between capex and COGs in its charts. $57bn is just battery purchases.

"In December 2018, VW said it planned to spend $34 billion on e-mobility initiatives and $57 billion on battery procurement through 2025. It plans to introduce 50 battery electric and 30 hybrid electric models by 2025, including 12 electrified models for Audi. Eventually, VW will offer electrified versions of all 300 models in its 12-brand global portfolio, including 15 million vehicles off its dedicated EV platform by 2025. VW will invest $17 billion by 2022 with China partners SAIC, FAW and JAC to make electrified vehicles."

 

[ggr]

To be precise until 2025 $57 bn in R&D and $34 bn in the expansion of electro-mobility. 50 BEVs and 30 PHEV until 2025 are planned. On top $17 bn for Chinese Patners SAIC, FAW etc. Daimler BTW does invest $ 43bn.

Deutschland investiert am meisten – 300 Milliarden Dollar fließen in Elektroautos

No real differentiation what is CapEx from VWs numbers though and I agree the comparison is not fully fair.

I believe VW will continue announce big numbers to make the impression they roll the market with their investment abilities. Money is helpful but won't solve issues around innovation, software and batterie efficiency beside others.

Way back when (70's) IBM and Burroughs were two of the biggest mainframe computer manufacturers. Burroughs pioneered Virtual Memory. When IBM announced their 370 series and VM operating system, Burroughs sales tanked. (Possibly the first incident of Vaporware, although IBM did eventually deliver.) That seems to be VW's strategy, as you say. However, Tesla isn't the kind of incumbent that Burroughs was, so I doubt that this will really hurt Tesla. It's part of the battle of the other big guys though.

 

[gora321]

32 shares secured!

 

[gora321]

#Tesla registered 11,121 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. ~84% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 247633.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter

 

[BobbyKings]

Does anyone know how well prepared the delivery network in Europe is to handle the influx of Model 3?

Piece of cake.

 

[KarenRei]

That's a mistranslation of the original Reuters data which itself failed to distinguish between capex and COGs in its charts. $57bn is just battery purchases.

"In December 2018, VW said it planned to spend $34 billion on e-mobility initiatives and $57 billion on battery procurement through 2025. It plans to introduce 50 battery electric and 30 hybrid electric models by 2025, including 12 electrified models for Audi. Eventually, VW will offer electrified versions of all 300 models in its 12-brand global portfolio, including 15 million vehicles off its dedicated EV platform by 2025. VW will invest $17 billion by 2022 with China partners SAIC, FAW and JAC to make electrified vehicles."

$57B in battery procurement by 2025 might be (depending on your price and pack size assumptions) something like 1,6M EVs per year**. Backloaded, so more in 2025, a lot less earlier.. probably that 1,6M/yr level around 2023 or so.

For comparison, Tesla thinks that it could hit 1,7M/yr in Model 3 + Model Y alone (w/advertising). Beyond them Musk estimated 2-3 years (late 2020-late 2021) for a $25k base-price Tesla to come out (adjust for the Musk Time Dilation Factor ).

** Assumed an average $80/kWh over that timeperiod (backloaded to lower future prices) and 75kWh average pack size, since I don't see VW being very ambitious on that front (although they might be forced to be). Although I'm not accounting for the fact that VW will also be dedicating some of that battery capacity to conventional hybrids, which they plan to make large volumes of.... perhaps ~2kWh per conventional hybrid and ~10-30/kWh for PHEVs. VW group makes ~11M vehicles per year.

 

[lklundin]

On top of the 28k that Tesla reserved in the past few days, they just reserved an additional 11k,
100% dual motor, 84% intl, Highest VIN is 247633:

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

Happy trading.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Make your own math and put VWs announcement into perspective....

Since a while they are world champions in announcements. Clearly VWs PR department has a strategy to keep the name VW and EVs in the press in order to be seen as a supplier and not losing brand recognition until they are ready to deliver.

Thats a fair strategy and I believe it will work however I measure automakers on what and how many BEVs they deliver to customers today.

If they run some commercials that get people interested in EVs, it's good for everyone. I wonder VW/Cadillac/Audi/Jaguar know they're competing for second place?

 

[dmckinstry]

Everything's fake, everyone! Musk doesn't make anything real! That Tesla that you think you're driving? Boy, Musk really pulled the wool over your eyes with that one

What's really scary is how the cars (that don't exit) have perfected mind control on us (who think we're owners) and believe we have collectively driven billions of miles all over the world. I guess we're really gullible.

 

[KarenRei]

What's really scary is how the cars (that don't exit) have perfected mind control on us (who think we're owners) and believe we have collectively driven billions of miles all over the world. I guess we're really gullible.

Musk is just really really good at this whole fraud thing It's really just an elaborate "Emperor's New Clothes" scenario, with an added dash of hallucinogens. You're not really sitting in a car and steering - you're actually sitting on a bar stool holding a dinner plate.

 

[jhm]

That's a mistranslation of the original Reuters data which itself failed to distinguish between capex and COGs in its charts. $57bn is just battery purchases.

"In December 2018, VW said it planned to spend $34 billion on e-mobility initiatives and $57 billion on battery procurement through 2025. It plans to introduce 50 battery electric and 30 hybrid electric models by 2025, including 12 electrified models for Audi. Eventually, VW will offer electrified versions of all 300 models in its 12-brand global portfolio, including 15 million vehicles off its dedicated EV platform by 2025. VW will invest $17 billion by 2022 with China partners SAIC, FAW and JAC to make electrified vehicles."

I would welcome bringing this discuss of the Reuters article and the question of EV investment levels to this thread: EV Market Share
This is really too important to get lo lost in the catch-all thread here.

 

[Huskyf]

39 000 new VIN in just 3 days !

 

[KarenRei]

39 000 new VIN in just 3 day !

Keep 'em coming, it's always a nice boost to the SP!

 

[Todd Burch]

39 000 new VIN in just 3 days !

Conclusion: Tesla is now at a 13k/day production rate.

I'm sure there will now be FUD about how not all of those 13K cars per day are being sold...

 

[Zaxxon]

T-3 hours until S/X 75D are no more. T-4ish hours until... ?

 

[Tslynk67]

Today's @CNBC FUD...

Tesla under pressure as Ford, Nissan and GM roll out new competition for electric car buyers at Detroit auto show

• Ford rolled out bold new plans to invest $11 billion in electric vehicles by 2022.

 

[Electroman]

Dana Hull spent the weekend Tweeting about SpaceX layoffs - she really seems to dislike Elon (one has to wonder if there are financial reasons motivating her dislike).

Dana was fishing for dirt - asking laid off SpaceX employees to reach out to her - so that she can blow it into a mountain.

I have little respect and regard for elks of Dana Hill, Laura Klodney, Charles Grant or Linette Lopez. I think they are more scummier than Mark BS. Atleast Mark BS is a short seller, so we expect him to lie and be dishonest - a trait expected of all short sellers. But these so called journalists are expected to be unbiased and whatever they write is taken more seriously than the twitter feeds of short sellers and their friends. They hide behind and use the power of MSM to do the same shenanigans of the short sellers. That is despicable behavior.

@bonnie blocked me from Twitter because I disparaged Dana and Laura on her twitter feed. That is fine. I just follow @Reciprocity and that is all the news I need for Tesla.

 

[sparcs]

T-3 hours until S/X 75D are no more. T-4ish hours until... ?

What could they even announce? Would Tesla be able to set up new battery pack assembly for Model S/X at GF1 using 21-70s without anyone hearing about it?

 

[KarenRei]

What could they even announce? Would Tesla be able to set up new battery pack assembly for Model S/X at GF1 using 21-70s without anyone hearing about it?

No, there's not been some secret 10GWh extra capacity installed at Giga (in addition to everything else that would be required at Fremont). And don't hold your breath waiting for some grand announcement at all when 75D sales end. At the very least, if they plan to do anything at all, they'll probably wait at least a week or two so that it doesn't seem like a giant middle finger (if it's a good thing they do) to the people who just bought 75Ds.

 

[Pezpunk]

39 000 new VIN in just 3 days !

could this be an attempt on Tesla's part to prevent outside entitites from closely tracking production / delivery numbers in real time? Over the last three quarters, simply applying a .85x multiplier to VINs turned out in retrospect to be the most accurate way to estimate deliveries. Perhaps Tesla is seeking to eliminate that unintended "leak" of information?