Wow these days really do bring out some interesting guests. Anton, while you are here, could you clear up a legitimate question I have? You write so many FUD articles on TSLA that I have wondered if you yourself believe the things you write about. What is your motivation for writing these articles non stop? Do you receive incentive payments from outside interests? Why else would someone do this?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Wow these days really do bring out some interesting guests. Anton, while you are here, could you clear up a legitimate question I have? You write so many FUD articles on TSLA that I have wondered if you yourself believe the things you write about. What is your motivation for writing these articles non stop? Do you receive incentive payments from outside interests? Why else would someone do this?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
The point of carefully scheduling and routing production within the quarter is to avoid the "lost revenue": if they are making cars for Europe and China in January and February and are putting those cars on ships, then the vast majority of the cars have time to reach their destination, be delivered and recognized as revenue - it's a matter of timing a cut-off when they switch over to U.S. production.
I edited my post with a production schedule - the various phases might shift by ~1 week but I think it's mostly right.
Note that the Model 3 is significantly faster to deliver to Europe than the Model S/X, because there's no disassembly and re-assembly and re-qualification steps required.
On the off chance you are actually interested
Testing is needed, hence the internal Tesla test fleet. However, once completed, a software release OTA is exactly like flipping a switch,
Could happen
"Seem" is not reality. They had two rounds of employee vehicle purchases specifically for FSD testing. EAP v9 is likely an offshoot of the new FSD codebase.
Testing is needed, hence the internal Tesla test fleet. However, once completed, a software release OTA is exactly like flipping a switch,
Tesla has over a billion autopilot miles.
You call what you believe
That is not at all how FSD learning happens. However, hints for map tiles could work that way.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Despite the $700 million in bonds due in March, Elon anticipating a profit is quite bullish to me. This is not to mention we’ll be heavily invested in the China GF.
At this point I’m not sure if “growing fast” is a good idea. There are still logistics that needs to be ironed out.. don’t get me wrong, I’m still anticiapting 40% plus growth for 2019, but not by March. Going from 5,000 to 7,000 will likely take 5-6 months, then 8,000-10,000 by end of year will be a win in my books. Even with all that money available for expansion, you still have to produce the robots, train employees; unfortunately, the learning curve for new hires will slow down that growth potential.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
I, more or less, actually agree with you here. But you had to trot out Waymo-we-still-don't-have-autonomy-even-after-our-go-live-for-autonomy-service
If you want to be taken seriously about FSD you'll at least need to NOT demonstrate you are uninformed on the subject.
How's that saying go, "better to be silent and thought a fool than open one's mouth and prove them right"?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Indeed you are right, I forgot about that.
Instead of these imperfect ad-hoc estimates I'll defer to @ReflexFund's updated estimates which he provided today - the new numbers are Q4 profits of $177m and free cash flow of $990m:
Two wildcards I mentioned earlier are probably out of play for Q4:
- Tesla probably didn't squander their sizeable ZEV stockpile in Q4 (it might be a good rainy day fund starting end of next year when Trump will probably lose the election),
- They probably didn't recognize deferred revenue for the Autopilot milestones they reached in Q4
Why did Elon say at the last CC that they should be profitable every quarter except maybe when they had a big debt repayment when they would be flat?
That's where we disagree. I've seen it happening based on Tesla & China alone for the last 10 years. Why don't you see that?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
He didn't say that, it's misquoted.
Here's what he said in the August 1 conference call, exactly:
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.:
"I feel comfortable achieving a GAAP income positive and cash flow positive quarter every quarter from here on out. That's a – there may be occasional quarters, where we pay back a big loan or something, where there may be just because we paid back a big loan. But absent that, it would be cash flow positive."
"I feel comfortable achieving a GAAP income positive and cash flow positive quarter every quarter from here on out. That's a – there may be occasional quarters, where we pay back a big loan or something, where there may be just because we paid back a big loan. But absent that, it would be cash flow positive."
He basically qualified the cash flow positive statement with "except if we pay back a big loan" - because debt repayments decrease cash flow, but not profits. (Taking the loan didn't directly increase profits either so that's fair.)
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Regarding the deletion of 75D from S/X:
Since I was planning on leasing a MS 75D to replace my current lease in May, this deletion has put me into a bit of a dilemma...I could get a (inventory) 75D configured as I want it now (delivery April) or just order a 100D later (when ??? happens).
Spoke with a Tesla sales guy here today and he confirms that that the reason they got rid of the 75D is to increase the price gap between the 3 and S/X.
FWIW he didn’t think there would be a price reduction on the 100D (but then he’s a sales guy.....)
Didn’t help with my dilemma, but interesting data point anyways...
Since I was planning on leasing a MS 75D to replace my current lease in May, this deletion has put me into a bit of a dilemma...I could get a (inventory) 75D configured as I want it now (delivery April) or just order a 100D later (when ??? happens).
Spoke with a Tesla sales guy here today and he confirms that that the reason they got rid of the 75D is to increase the price gap between the 3 and S/X.
FWIW he didn’t think there would be a price reduction on the 100D (but then he’s a sales guy.....)
Didn’t help with my dilemma, but interesting data point anyways...
Geely's moving in on foreign markets (probably hit them in 2020-2021) and owns a bunch of well-known foreign brand names. 'Nuff said.
Happened already.
See Geely's method. I suppose the other companies will find it harder.
How about we quote the whole thing:
Now, if you know accounting when he talks about the occasional quarter where they paid back a big loan he is not talking about that payback affecting GAAP income. It is affecting the 'cash flow positive' portion of his statement.
23 million shares traded of the 170 million TSLA shares, and none of them from me nor Elon, nor Larry, nor lots of others. Couldn’t the rest decide whether to buy or sell, so they did both?
What is your reaction time on this situation? Mine is 2 working days 
It does sound an awful lot like that letter, doesn't it. Letters to employees have a particular bias to them... "the company needs you to work extra hard right now!"
The other thing: we were *just talking* about how Wall Street analysts artificially raised expectations to very high levels just before earnings or deliveries, and then announced a "miss" (of their bizarre and artificially high expectations). By talking down the expectations, Musk helps prevent this behavior on earnings day. But he didn't give any specific numbers, so nobody can accuse him of lying or manipulating.
Musk stated a while back that they were just going to pay off the convertible bonds. I took him at his word. I expect them to do so.
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