Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

Some slightly positive news about my ongoing flat tire service battle:

Today I got a pro-active call from Sunnyvale Service Center offering to change my appointment to a mobile service one, so it’ll get done about a week earlier. Great.

Some caveats: they can’t do the Bioweapon Defense Mode retrofit because they haven’t gotten the parts and order info for it. I actually have all the parts already(bought them ~6 months back to do the retrofit sans firmware support myself), but apparently they can’t see anything from shop.tesla.com until the parts are sent out. They also won’t be doing the tire rotation since they now charge $88 for it(seems odd, since I was under the impression this was included for life of the tires when I got them installed there).

Aaaand I take back a lot of the positivity there. Just got another call. The tire I was told was repairable(and waited for 2 months for the repair kit to come in for) was apparently suddenly deemed unrepairable, and they went ahead and replaced the tire without bothering to ask me if that was ok or even tell me they were doing it. The call was to collect payment for that.

Had I known the tire wasn’t repairable, I would have purchased it elsewhere and just had them do the installation, since the same tire generally costs less and comes with a warranty.

EDIT: Bonus: By going ahead and replacing the tire without bothering to tell me, they also voided the warranty that would have covered most of the replacement cost.

 

[printf42]

It's possible, but Elon did say that the very fast Model 3 product cycle was a mistake, which they don't want to repeat again.

IIRC he said the mistake was to try to automate too much things from the beginning, and it ends up being slower than it could have been.

So with more conservative target and smaller steps, Model Y could be ramped up faster than Model 3 did.
They are expected to share a lot of components, at least they don’t need to go through the battery pack hell again.

 

[M3Rider]

In others news the "wall" is starting to develop some cracks.
Six GOP senators vote to end shutdown without wall funding

I wish TSA had a union and decided to strike and demand a back pay. The shutdown would be over so much faster. Or call back sick. We're only at 10%. If they did >50% that could be enough too.

 

[EVNow]

The common theme: fundamental dishonesty.

I've a different perspective.

General media hasn't bought into EVs. They still think they are - expensive & not practical. They think of it as niche. These are generally non-auto journalists.

Once you understand this perspective, the rest follows.
- When a competitor comes, Tesla sales will suffer because, being a niche, overall EV market is limited
- Once the backlog is gone, where will the demand come from ?
- etc

Auto journalists can't believe Tesla can be better at EVs than established OEMs. They think, as soon as established OEMs start making EVs seriously, Tesla can't compete.

 

[Nakata]

Millennials are snapping up Tesla shares after its layoffs

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Well, it's sad because it's true.
For years people couldn't understand how someone like Belusconi could be in power, and Trump is the definitive response to the world's inquiry.
(Trump is way worse than Berlusconi)

Dude, that's nothing.
I had war criminal for a President.
This too shall pass.

 

[EVNow]

In others news the "wall" is starting to develop some cracks.
Six GOP senators vote to end shutdown without wall funding

Interesting to note the names. Only Susan & Cory (may be Isakson too) are facing competitive elections in '20. Other 4 have no particular political reason to cross over (Lamar is not running in '20).

GOP Sens. Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), Susan Collins (Maine), Cory Gardner (Colo.), Johnny Isakson (Ga.), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Mitt Romney (Utah) voted to advance the continuing resolution,

 

[Fact Checking]

Millennials are snapping up Tesla shares after its layoffs

"According to Markets Insider’s weekly track of data, a net 15,870 Robinhood users added Tesla to their portfolio in the past week, making it the most-added stock on the app over that time. Tesla now has 97,404 Robinhood shareholders, ranking 20th among all stocks on the platform."​

Interesting trend. A very large percentage of Millennials is protected from MSM based FUD, because they do not watch TV and don't read the usual news sources.

Millennials will also more likely to make the obvious "the Model 3 is to Tesla today what the iPhone was to Apple 10 years ago" observation.

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - this afternoon: U.S. government shutdown threatens rollout of new car models: automakers | Reuters

It appears to be a potential emissions certification problem for ICE automakers, along with their proclivity to roll out new models each fall. It should have no effect on Tesla.

 

[EVNow]

Interesting. Is Trump done playing chicken ?

Quick outcome would be for Senate to pass all the appropriations except DHS that the House has already passed. They can do it today. House can add some border security $$ to DHS and pass it tomorrow to end the shutdown. Trump can claim some sort of victory and move on.

Trump says if Senate leaders reach deal to end shutdown, he would back it

President Donald Trump said on Thursday if Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer come to an agreement to end the partial government shutdown, he would support it.

"If they come to a reasonable agreement I would support it, yes," Trump told reporters as he met with Republican lawmakers to discuss trade.

McConnell and Schumer met on Capitol Hill this afternoon after two bills to end the shutdown failed in Senate votes. "We're talking," Schumer said after his half-hour meeting with McConnell.

 

[GregRF]

Model 3 was "pencils down" by July 2016, and production (slowly) started 1 year later.

Model Y was "pencils down" in October 2018. Could they move faster than 1 year turnaround for Model 3? I think so.

"Pencils down" of design for procuring production equipment is a lot different then Musk giving the go ahead to build prototypes of the Y.

 

[ggr]

...But *unless* Tesla does the crazy "switch all production back to California deliveries on March 1st, quick" fiddle, Q1 should have a one-time hit due to loading up the ship pipeline to Europe (min. 19 days) and China (min. 15 days). That's basically adding an average o f 17 days in transit; equivalent to losing 18.6% of your sales for the quarter.

We'll find out if they're still doing the "Europe early in quarter, US late in quarter" thing by early March. It's a *bad idea* if they do because it means you end up overstaffing both the US and Europe just for *appearances*; it is better to steady-state both locations and take the one-tmie hit.

I agree, and Elon has even said he agrees in the long term, but maybe this quarter isn't the one in which to do it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Interesting effort from Galileo Russell and Say to get retail shareholders a platform to ask questions on the conference calls:
[Edit: To clarify, Russell has been in contact with Tesla regarding this, and while they haven't committed to do it, he thinks that they are likely to do so.]

Done! Really good idea. (Kinda scary entering my Acct info to prove how many shares I have. But how else would they filter the noise.)
Mine are "John D" if anyone wants to vote for the really good one's like FSD or the Saudi/Private no-deal.

 

[mongo]

"Pencils down" of design for procuring production equipment is a lot different then Musk giving the go ahead to build prototypes of the Y.

Not when you're Tesla and skip the whole soft tooling prototype step...
Tesla Insider Speaks Out On Problems Of Soft Tooling

 

[anthonyj]

This is hilarious

 

[KarenRei]

Model 3 wins Kelley Blue Book best resale value this year:

Kelley Blue Book on Twitter

EV depreciation rates are normally horrible. Teslas are the only EVs that have not followed this trend.

 

[ZeApelido]

If memory serves me right, he also said that they will target the next ramp-ups to be very fast. I don't remember where I heard/read that, but it was in the last couple of months I think.

Ok, Model Y production 2019Q2 confirmed

 

[1101011]

With every passing quarter it becomes easier and easier to 'face reality', run into a Tesla owner you know, or to take a Tesla test drive.

Single data point:
For years it seemed like I had the only Tesla on the road in Ohio.
Yesterday, while driving my wife to Cleveland Hopkins airport, forty miles away, I was pleasantly surprised to encounter a Model X in front of me. After the dropoff I was over taken my a Model 3 with temporary plates. Stopping at Whole Foods I saw two Model Ss in the parking lot.

Things are looking up.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Aaaand I take back a lot of the positivity there. Just got another call. The tire I was told was repairable(and waited for 2 months for the repair kit to come in for) was apparently suddenly deemed unrepairable, and they went ahead and replaced the tire without bothering to ask me if that was ok or even tell me they were doing it. The call was to collect payment for that.

Had I known the tire wasn’t repairable, I would have purchased it elsewhere and just had them do the installation, since the same tire generally costs less and comes with a warranty.

EDIT: Bonus: By going ahead and replacing the tire without bothering to tell me, they also voided the warranty that would have covered most of the replacement cost.

Just confirmed with them that they discarded the old tire. Warranty voided. That’s ~$200 gone. @neroden I fully agree with you. This service nonsense is going to sink the company if they don’t turn it around.

 

[SOULPEDL]

If memory serves me right, he also said that they will target the next ramp-ups to be very fast. I don't remember where I heard/read that, but it was in the last couple of months I think.

I also recall him saying there were too many features (like the glass roof) all at once. So expect shorter turn around this time with that lesson learned. Plus it's based on the Model 3 frame to start with as I believe. He really wants the Truck, so Y needs to get out of the way already, but today is pretty aggressive timing, maybe we get a date for the reveal out a few months.