Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tinm]

Tesla is constrained in many states in terms of how many store and service centers the franchise auto dealership cartel, er, I mean, the state law, allows in that state, that is, if the cartel, oops I mean the law, even allows Tesla to open even one store/service location in the entire state. I’m almost positive Tesla’s limited in NY state.

Get a CLUE!

I live in a metropolitan statistical area, dude. We have the conveniences of a city.

You can live in Buffalo, the 50th-largest MSA in the US, and have the same problem. Because Tesla has serious deficiences in geographic coverage of service centers, something Musk has noted on Twitter and called IIRC a "dumb oversight".

If Tesla had a service center within 120 miles of every MSA (some are close to one another), there would be no issue.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Any large TSLA bull who wants to invest a few ten thousand dollars into a feed of CleanTechnica, Teslarati, InsideEV and the occasional Electrek articles to show up on the iPhone stock app and trace and fix this distortion?

Dark net "services" are cheap and effective.

Silencing people cost you what, 500 bucks? But I think we are better than that, aren't we?

 

[omarsultan]

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yeah, Model Y is sort of a whole separate thing but it's definitely one of the elements that convinced us that we can scale up quickly and at low CapEx in Shanghai, where we do an improved version of GA4. And then, we're also figuring out how to make the paint shop a lot simpler and general assembly a lot simpler. And after this call, I'm headed back out to the...

I have to admit this thing with the paint shop always confuses me. Henry Ford started building cars 111 years ago and Tesla has been building cars for more than a decade. Shouldn't painting cars in volume kinda be known science at this point? We can land rockets on ships in the ocean, but we cannot figure out how to paint cars?

 

[Krugerrand]

Yet he could have reasonably assumed that Tesla would add SC's which would cover the majority of NY State, not just the lower right hand corner. Not to mention the Ranger service was supposed to take care of issues for those not near service centers. A Syracuse SC is a no brainer which would cover most of upstate NY and I can't understand why Tesla doesn't have one. I received a text from someone at Tesla just today about setting up a test drive and I asked them about any plans for any other SC's in NY. He said he didn't know of any plans for such.

When he bought his car, Tesla wasn’t even close to being in today’s financial position. They were still very much hanging on by fingernails, the M3 nowhere about, FCF not happening. It was not a purchase without risk. If he was buying it today, then he might reasonably assume a SC was coming in a timely fashion. Maybe.

I’m sure there’s a very good reason we’re not privy to. Perhaps the state of NY is not being helpful, in the same kind of way Michigan isn’t helpful. There’s also a thing called prioritizing and there might simply be 1,000 things more important right now.

Since none of us knows what’s going on behind closed doors, we’ve no idea. It seems all too easy to take it personal, or assume they’re being stupid. They’ll open one when/if they can, just as they’ll put Superchargers in North Dakota when/if they can. They’re trying to do everything at once, all over the planet, and not getting much help.

 

[EVDRVN]

I have to admit this thing with the paint shop always confuses me. Henry Ford started building cars 111 years ago and Tesla has been building cars for more than a decade. Shouldn't painting cars in volume kinda be known science at this point? We can land rockets on ships in the ocean, but we cannot figure out how to paint cars?

Try and do anything in CA with the EPA and you will understand. My brother's factory in LA has to burn more BTUs of gas to burn off residual fumes of insignificant quantity that it actually causes more pollution than leaving it unburnt. But that's the spec. If the cars were painted in another country the paint would not come off at 80 MPH.

 

[Fact Checking]

Dark net "services" are cheap and effective.

Silencing people cost you what, 500 bucks? But I think we are better than that, aren't we?

I'm not suggesting anything like that, what I'm suggesting is to first trace the source of the apparent iPhone stock app news feed distortion (which has been reported by many), and then if it turns out to be an artificial, SEO-magnified distortion (which I strongly suspect it is), then counteract the effect with an honest feed of articles - i.e. an anti-SEO campaign.

The point is not to suppress anything, but basically to give the real Tesla news a chance to propagate - which it currently doesn't seem to have.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

The best part about all this is, legacy auto makers cannot and will not take EVs seriously. They cannot afford to pump billions into an infrastructure that self implodes their ICE business in the billions. I still think the only serious Tesla competitor is another Tesla like company (like BYU). Legacy car makers will always be behind. Who would a "seal team programmer" work for? Toyota/GM where you have plenty of red tap to get anything done and no one takes you seriously or Tesla who champions your work because you are task to build the future of transportation?

All these legacy car maker announcements are just lip service, hoping to take potential Tesla buyers away using their own brand loyalty, or for the shareholders from abandoning ship and jumping to TSLA. You know and I know, time and time again their EV cars always come up short in major ways.

I think everyone is serious about moving to EV now, they just can't plot course effectively.
Being involved in some turnarounds, I know how hard is to execute this in a 100-300 people organization, let alone 30,000 people

 

[Sancho]

Taking my M3 on a Midwestern road trip today. Entire experience is great, but it’s ironic that the most expensive car I have ever purchased is connecting me to a world outside my 1% bubble.

Every stop at a supercharger brings a new experience of trudging through unshoveled paths to places I’ve never been. Walmarts (very clean bathrooms!), fast food chains (America DOES have a weight issue).

So my question is, which will come first: Tesla (or third parties) opening establishments near Superchargers to cater to today’s typical Tesla owner, or does the total-cost-of-ownership of an M3 go low enough that most future M3 owners are regular patrons of the current proximal establishments?

 

[Beltsbear]

Try and do anything in CA with the EPA and you will understand. My brother's factory in LA has to burn more BTUs of gas to burn off residual fumes of insignificant quantity that it actually causes more pollution than leaving it unburnt. But that's the spec. If the cars were painted in another country the paint would not come off at 80 MPH.

Or we could let the fumes spread and even hurt our own workers who live downwind.

 

[neroden]

Now apply the exact same statement to the rest of the Supercharger network. Canada Superhighway? Eastern European expansion? Overcrowded stations in... well, many markets now? Upgrading EU chargers with CCS? It's not a single-location issue. Progress is wanted everywhere. Perhaps North Dakota is your particular focus, but everyone's particular focus will be different.

Nope. The point is finish the job you started. Which, in this case, is lower-48 US coverage. Eastern Europe basically hasn't been started. Canada Superhighway is half-done. US is within inches of being done, but nah, can't be bothered to actually finish a project. The philosophy of not doing this: Let's just leave those Model 3s with missing parts and worry about them some other year -- who cares that one part is missing, we have most of a car, Model Y buyers need attention just as much, right?

There are two different ways in which the Supercharger network needs to grow:

1. Geographic coverage. North Dakota, the Trans-Canada highway, northeastern California (not far from Gigafactory-1), and miscellaneous other locations need to be filled in before Tesla can declare victory in terms of North American coverage. I agree that this should not take much longer. Even with many more Tesla vehicles on the road, most of the very rural Supercharger stations should not need to be expanded for the foreseeable future. (I'd personally like to see coverage all the way up to Alaska, but that'll have to wait...)

2. Capacity in areas with particularly high Tesla densities. Many Supercharger stations in California are routinely at capacity. As long as Tesla vehicles continue to be sold, Tesla will need to continue adding capacity. There are ways to limit the need for additional capacity, including charging people to Supercharge, helping workplaces and cities to add charging, adding destination chargers, selling vehicles with more battery range, deploying faster chargers, and supporting CHAdeMO or CCS charging. Even so, there's no escaping the need for continual capacity growth.

I'd agree with this...

At this point, I would argue that (2) is much more important than (1).

...and massively disagree with this in the case of North Dakota at least.

If your rural gap is at the "tail end" of a trip, no problem. If it's minor -- you just need a top-up in between Superchargers -- no problem. If it's right in the middle of Interstate 94 and the gap is 750 miles long, you have a PROBLEM.

On the other hand, if someone is trying to drive between cities in California and all of the Superchargers are congested, that's more likely to negatively affect their ownership experience.

There are other charging options in California. Chademo and CCS support would alleviate a lot of the strain.

The other charging options in North Dakota... well, it's 40 amp outlets at campgrounds, and you don't have *any* backups if one is not functioning. (At least Canada has some 70 amp AC chargers, though Tesla didn't bother to make Model 3 capable of using them.)

Increasing the price will reduce congestion at California chargers. The only fix for North Dakota is to actually build the Superchargers.

Of course, it has to be done during the construction season, so they can't do anything until spring. But if they don't get it built this spring, it would be imbecilic.

Agreed. Take my metro area for example. Far more pepole live and travel through KC than truly rural areas like the Dakotas.

The two planed SCs are where I live. Aside from that my options to drive South or Southwest are very limited.

Did you deliberately crop your map to avoid including the Joplin Supercharger (south) and the Wichita Supercharger (southwest)? In the KC area, both Independence and Kansas City (north) are operating. You can go southeast to Springfield or Osage Beach, east to Columbia MO, north to Bethany or St Joseph, west to Topeka. Northeast is actually your only gap. You have enough Superchargers to GET ANYWHERE. Except North Dakota, you can't get there.

Just take a look at supercharge.info and at plugshare. The bigger problem is the void in North Dakota. (And yes, the Trans-Canada is a problem too.) Look, Elon Musk agrees with me about this; he's tweeted about it. Just needs to actually do it.

There's a supercharger under construction near me in Roscoe. It's not important. There's another under construction near me in Salamanca. It's sort of important. Both are on a route which doesn't get that much traffic. The missing Superchargers in ND on I-94, which gets a lot of traffic, are far more important.

There may have been something specific which we don't know about which delayed things in North Dakota (and eastern Montana and Western Minnesota) on the I-94 route. I hope it was some sort of permitting problem, obstruction by the utility company or something, and not just dumbassery.

 

[neroden]

Not at the moment. Supporting CCS would probably mean full hardware and software(communication protocol) compatibility in order to comply with the law. My guess is that the only thing that is missing is billing/account management in order to enable ccs SUCs for third parties.
Remember that Germany got lots of superchargers early on, and then the suc growth stalled completely? That’s because Germany had the most strict interpretation of the European law, and after the deadline for that line German SUC growth stalled completely. At some point Tesla actually had signs ‘Tesla only’ (or even physical barriers, I don’t remember exactly) to indicate that the new superchargers where not ‘public’. And that Tesla needed an extension of that European deadline in Spain to be able to roll out the Spanish SUCs.
I guess 2019 marks the moment that those tricks are not allowed anymore in Europe.

Unfortunately, German-style deliberate regulatory sabotage of Tesla is a trick which is still allowed in Europe!

Good thing China is friendly to Tesla!

 

[EVNow]

They cannot afford to pump billions into an infrastructure that self implodes their ICE business in the billions. I still think the only serious Tesla competitor is another Tesla like company (like BYU).

My take is - they can't afford not to pump billions in to EVs. Legacy OEMs are assuming that
- Once the battery tech is cheap they can easily switch gear and make EVs
- The transition will be very slow (and they can make it slower by lobbying governments)
So, they are assuming that they can afford not to pump billions into EVs. It is slowly changing - as luxury car makers are now confronting how quickly their market share eroded in US. VW got caught in the scandal. Nissan & GM are likely regressing and won't spend as much anymore. Toyota and Honda are the usual laggards.

I think some Chinese company will be the high volume (low price) producer in the future. Just not sure they can break into western markets.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

I'm not suggesting anything like that, [...]

Yes, yes, of course not. Me neither.

I just wanted to raise the question of how dirty are you willing to play to unmask and eventually defeat your opponents. Where do you draw the line? It's a tough one for people with at least some amount of moral integrity.

And sad but true reality is: It's almost never a plane playing field.

 

[dgodfrey]

Tesla is constrained in many states in terms of how many store and service centers the franchise auto dealership cartel, er, I mean, the state law, allows in that state, that is, if the cartel, oops I mean the law, even allows Tesla to open even one store/service location in the entire state. I’m almost positive Tesla’s limited in NY state.

That's still the case here in NY. A few years ago, I sent a letter to them in hopes of opening up a gallery/SC in the Saratoga area which is a tailor made demographic. Lots of downstate summer visitors, money, horse racing, more money, Vanderbilt money, very stable area with lots of higher education and state capitol 30 minutes away. They responded that they were allowed only 5 galleries and they were already at that limit. Not sure how the SC figure in to this legislation though.
Then at the drive EV event a few years back I brought it up with our Assemblyman Paul Tonko and his right hand man. A few back and forth's via e-mails and a bill introduced by George Amedore and Joe Morrelle last year has been stymied.

The State Legislature began “exploring” it nearly four years ago when it allowed Tesla to operate a handful of sales locations, all are downstate. The company now wants to build 15 new stores, including 5 upstate and one in Rochester, but it’s getting push back.

“They’re trying to operate on a different set of rules and this came up a couple of years ago, and so legislation was negotiated so that they could do four stores but part of those negotiations were,” said Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb. “That's it, and here they are back trying for more stores.”

NYS Exposed: State law prevents Tesla from upstate expansion

 

[omarsultan]

Try and do anything in CA with the EPA and you will understand. My brother's factory in LA has to burn more BTUs of gas to burn off residual fumes of insignificant quantity that it actually causes more pollution than leaving it unburnt. But that's the spec. If the cars were painted in another country the paint would not come off at 80 MPH.

I have no doubt it's a regulatory mine field, but Tesla's been building cars in California for 11 years, so that seems like plenty of time to get a handle on things. Heck, NUMMI managed to paint 300K+ vehicles a year in that same factory.

I know Tesla is doing many amazing, never-been-done-before things, with lots of associated execution risk, but I find it odd the painting cars is still a topic of conversation.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I have no doubt it's a regulatory mine field, but Tesla's been building cars in California for 11 years, so that seems like plenty of time to get a handle on things. Heck, NUMMI managed to paint 300K+ vehicles a year in that same factory.

I know Tesla is doing many amazing, never-been-done-before things, with lots of associated execution risk, but I find it odd the painting cars is still a topic of conversation.

Note that at 5k Model 3’s/week(recently it looks like they’re closer to 6-7k/week) and 100k Model S/X per year, that’s 360k cars a year. They’re reaching and exceeding the most NUMMI ever did.

 

[Causalien]

"According to Markets Insider’s weekly track of data, a net 15,870 Robinhood users added Tesla to their portfolio in the past week, making it the most-added stock on the app over that time. Tesla now has 97,404 Robinhood shareholders, ranking 20th among all stocks on the platform."​

Interesting trend. A very large percentage of Millennials is protected from MSM based FUD, because they do not watch TV and don't read the usual news sources.

Millennials will also more likely to make the obvious "the Model 3 is to Tesla today what the iPhone was to Apple 10 years ago" observation.

Uh oh. Not good news.

Robinhood is free. Hence its data is sold. Someone will eventually farm these ppl's tsla holdings.

 

[neroden]

Of course that's not true. People have been driving everywhere in Teslas before there were superchargers. Lots of options, just not particularly fast ones. Certainly possible though.

Indeed, I overstated things... but not much.

My max range has declined a bit since I bought the car, to 249 mi. In a bad winter, my range can drop to 70% of rated, so 174 mi, but I'm not comfortable pushing it to the bleeping "5 miles remaining" limit.

Good old Plugshare shows me that I can, indeed, do this trip if I stay overnight at the Element Hotel in Fargo (not really any other options), and also top up in Fergus Falls or Alexandra, and ALSO top up in Jamestown. Then I can just about get to Bismarck. (In the winter, 110 outlets don't actually add power any faster than the heater is using power, so they're not an option.)

If I was coming from the west, it would be a lot worse. I'd have to camp overnight at North Park Campground in Dickinson or Medora Campground in Medora, and then at Miles City KOA. NO alternatives. If Miles City KOA was full, screwed!

In any case, I think this is the year that North Dakota will get its superchargers and transcon Canada will too.

God, I hope so.

 

[Hock1]

That's true - but note that there's a flip side to that: while the demand reduction FUD is deterring some customers, there's a dependable 'core' of Tesla owners and supporters who can dispel most of these myths in face to face discussions - which social interaction is much more powerful than pretty much any news source.

The artificially lowered expectations can in fact cause such a shock when experiencing a Tesla first hand that will 'trap' new owners in the Tesla experience even stronger, and makes them (and their families) immune against future FUD.

With every passing quarter it becomes easier and easier to 'face reality', run into a Tesla owner you know, or to take a Tesla test drive.

FC. Thanks for your very valuable input here. My experience re: explaining to my friends that Tesla is the object of the short and distort crowd or that the media is motivated, by advertising revenues, to ignore Tesla's successes, has definitely fallen on deaf ears. People believe what they want to believe.

Single data point:
For years it seemed like I had the only Tesla on the road in Ohio.
Yesterday, while driving my wife to Cleveland Hopkins airport, forty miles away, I was pleasantly surprised to encounter a Model X in front of me. After the dropoff I was over taken my a Model 3 with temporary plates. Stopping at Whole Foods I saw two Model Ss in the parking lot.

Things are looking up.

Same thing here in SW Florida. Peter Lynch type of data! Invest as much as you can stand to lose (in stock). Do not sell. This IS advice.

 

[neroden]

Maybe get your own clue and don’t buy a car from an OEM that doesn’t have a SC within a distance that is comfortable for you. Seriously.

Aaaaand that's what all the Tesla customers are gonna do if Tesla doesn't fix their service center geographical deficiencies. There's a reason I'm pointing this out in the INVESTOR THREAD. You just PROVED MY POINT, dude.

You made the choice to buy, Tesla didn’t make you buy the car.

Tesla sold me unlimited 4+4 year ranger service. (Which they are probably losing a hell of a lot of money on.) I haven't had to worry about the service center location and I won't have to until 2021. If
Tesla hasn't gotten this fixed by then, I'm probably buying another brand. Along with millions and millions of otherwise-Tesla customers.

Even worse for the Tesla mission, most of them will just buy gasoline cars. Even I might.

For such a self-proclaimed smart guy, that was a stupid thing to do. Your complaint is of your own making. No sympathy.

Try reading the above and figuring out which of us is smart and which is stupid, sir.