Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

There was nothing snarky about what I wrote, just a simple fact correction to a long post of OT speculation about the pintle injectors in Raptor - pintle injectors are for liquids, but Raptor is full staged flow and thus what's being burned are gases. Why are you reacting so angrily? Would you rather I have not corrected this and just watched you continue an argument akin to people speculating about what type of spark plugs you'd use in an electric car?

You hate me, I get it - no need to rub it in.

LIFO / tl;dr:
No Hate:
I have no hate for anyone on this board present company included. I've liked some of your posts, found other informative, and disagreed with some.

Spoiler: Long OT response

No argument:
There was no argument going on. @Fact Checking described the Merlin engine injectors in a misleading or incorrect way, I provided data supporting that there is one in the center. He responded that ITAR was their main point. I immediate liked their post and apologized for the off main-topicness in a PM.

Look at what you wrote:
"Would you rather I have not corrected this and just watched you continue an argument akin to people speculating about what type of spark plugs you'd use in an electric car?"

The was nothing in my post to correct.I did not say Raptor had pintle injectors, @Fact Checking did not say Raptor has pintle injectors. What was said was there are no images of Merlin engine's injectors, groupings, and shape. Those characteristics are misleading since a face pintle injector is.a single port.
Would you have preferred FC's post to go uncorrected that indicated Merlin has multiple injectors? They said "shape, grouping, and placement", I provided source data of one central injector. IMHO, an augment requires at least on response for the original party.

Making an analogy to electric cars having spark plugs has no purpose but to create a sense of ridiculousness regarding my post or justification in response, and is not helpful to communication.

Long OT reference:
That was one post as a response to one post, three posts total (because we took it off-line). And while it was OT, it was not speculation and it was not about Raptor, it was about Merlin. The only person directly talking about Raptor is you, the post has a picture of a Raptor, but the topic started by FC was rocket engine, specifically Merlin, images. The word Raptor is never even used. As to length, it was not as long as recent spreadsheet posts or cat images.
As to OT, there are multiple sports posts to address.

Snark Factor:
"Why exactly are we discussing pintle injectors when Raptor is full flow staged combustion, i.e. the propellants enter the combustion chamber as gases? Pintle injectors are designed to atomize liquids."

It may be a language thing, but where I'm from the use of "Why exactly are we" is snark. It implies there is no reason to be discussing or doing whatever the rest of the statement is describing. There is no 'we' and there is no need to defend ones self with an 'exact' reason.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

While you are entitled to your opinion, I hope I can convince you that the fact that Audi does not "offer towing on its ICE sedans here" is irrelevant for other markets.

Please don’t spend any time convincing me of that. I already agree with you that towing is more important on sedans in some markets and Tesla should offer more towing options. That doesn’t mean that Audi is outdoing Tesla by offering towing on a mediocre electric SUV.

If Audi offers towing on the A4 in Europe, you could convince me that Audi is outdoing Tesla in the “sedans with towing” market. Not the EVs with towing market.

 

[Krugerrand]

Perhaps the fact that the retail investor couldn’t manage to create an ER question for ‘How you gonna fix company to customer communications?’ suggests that they too might have a communications issue.

Yes. People on both sides have communication weaknesses. Unless you just think Tesla has this innate ability to only hire communication weak individuals. Absurd. People for as long as they could handwave, draw and eventually ‘talk’ have had problems communicating with each other for an infinite number of reasons that I will not list.

Reducing the need to converse live, text or email with customers will in fact reduce communication problems.

 

[elasalle]

The ending of the Audi Super Bowl ad says a lot about the challenge of ICE incumbents in transitioning to EVs.

They can’t just run an ad that says the exciting future of electric vehicles is happening now. That throws their ICE lineup under a bus. In saying Audi will be selling 1/3rd electric cars by 2025, they are really saying: “ICE cars will predominate for another decade, so don’t hesitate to keep buying our ICE cars.”

But if the cost of EVs decline as fast as ARK and others are predicting, EVs are likely to be the majority of all cars purchased by 2025.

Tesla should fly a blimp that says, "NO NEED TO WAIT, OUR EV's ARE AVAILABLE RIGHT NOW"

 

[mongo]

Perhaps the fact that the retail investor couldn’t manage to create an ER question for ‘How you gonna fix company to customer communications?’ suggests that they too might have a communications issue.

Yes. People on both sides have communication weaknesses. Unless you just think Tesla has this innate ability to only hire communication weak individuals. Absurd. People for as long as they could handwave, draw and eventually ‘talk’ have had problems communicating with each other for an infinite number of reasons that I will not list.

Reducing the need to converse live, text or email with customers will in fact reduce communication problems.

I sure wouldn't want to communicate with a customer whose car has been in the shop 2 weeks when I have no idea when the parts are actually going to arrive to fix it. Maybe they need to hire a telemarketing firm for front line contact, akin to Monty Python argument./ abuse sketch..(slightly NSFW and loud):

.

 

[avoigt]

Trunk rain issue solved in Chinese M3s.

Likely being solved in EU and US too now.

Rare HW adjustment. We won't see many of those.

微博正文 - 微博HTML5版

 

[KarenRei]

Trunk rain issue solved in Chinese M3s.

Likely being solved in EU and US too now.

Rare HW adjustment. We won't see many of those.

微博正文 - 微博HTML5版

I'd still hesitate about putting RainX on the rear windshield, but good to see.

 

[reddit_tl]

Very good article in Business Insider:

Tesla has booked two straight quarters of profits — here are the 5 biggest takeaways from that achievement

RT

I read through it.

Hardly a well written article on Tesla to me. Yes, it's relatively positive. But it misses a lot of important points. But its BI, so all is forgiven I guess.

 

[reddit_tl]

Those articles that show up in outlets where I have seen only hit pieces before make we think that something is about to change.

The reporting after the ER has been indeed partly negative as we have seen it before but the sheer amount of also more moderate or positive articles like this one more based on fundamentals and fact could help to change the narrative and investors reevaluate their strategy with regards to Tesla and starting to open positions.

Actually I expect this happened the last two days already and may continue. The stock movement we have seen since ER are encouraging. Still I have been surprised in the past too and we never know.

Technicals tell us that $300 and $280 are now the new bottom and we have a lot of headspace to swing up again.

This is all speculation obviously and I do not know.

5 reasons not to bet against Tesla (for now)

The line of narrative is wrong. These have not been issues and should not have.

The writer is still swimming in a pool outlined by shorts.

 

[traxila]

I know I'm in the minority but I think Tesla's at the point, atleast in the US where some targeted advertising could help them get their message out and would probably see a good return on investment. Wouldn't it be awesome if Tesla got a quick ad into the superbowl rotation right after Audi's ad with the slogan: "Drive the future. Today"

Do you believe that Tesla cannot sell all the cars it can produce at the moment?

Do you believe that Tesla would hesitate to advertise if it found itself in that position?

Why do you want Tesla to burn cash that it needs to relentlessly expand to meet demand?

 

[dc_h]

My personal best guess for revenue growth is:
2019: $32b
2020: $45b
2021: $60b
2022: $78b
2023: $100b
2024: $125b

Seems like Model Y could be 30-40B alone in 2021 or 2022. Hard to guess those out years. Small delays now could push gains out by years.
2021 guesstimate:
Model SX 7B 75,000
Model 3 20B 400,000
Model Y 30B 500,000
Roadster 5B 20,000
Semi 5B 20,000
Pickup 5B 50,000(who knows)
TE 10B
Total 82B not counting services-sales

 

[Krugerrand]

I sure wouldn't want to communicate with a customer whose car has been in the shop 2 weeks when I have no idea when the parts are actually going to arrive to fix it. Maybe they need to hire a telemarketing firm for front line contact, akin to Monty Python argument./ abuse sketch..(slightly NSFW and loud):

.

Speak.

 

[Fact Checking]

There was nothing snarky about what I wrote, just a simple fact correction to a long post of OT speculation about the pintle injectors in Raptor - pintle injectors are for liquids, but Raptor is full staged flow and thus what's being burned are gases.

You are mistaken, and there was no fact correction to do to @mongo's post: while Elon's photo was with the Raptor, my question was specifically about Merlin engines.

Read it back - it is you who misunderstood the whole discussion.

 

[KarenRei]

You are mistaken, and there was no fact correction to do to @mongo's post: while Elon's photo was with the Raptor, my question was specifically about Merlin engines.

Read it back - it is you who misunderstood the whole discussion.

Okay, let's do that.

I love this ITAR-safe photo where the injectors are under-exposed to such a degree that they are completely invisible.

The photo is of Raptor. It has no pintle injectors, because it does not inject liquids. Were you talking about a different photo other than the one you were responding to?

What you wrote is equivalent to someone posting a picture of an EV powertrain and writing:

I love this espionage-safe photo where the spark plugs are under-exposed to such a degree that they are completely invisible.

And then you and someone else going off on a discussion of whether spark plug photos are hidden in the engines of other cars - cars that actually have spark plugs.

One of the main advantages of full flow staged combustion is that everything that's burned in the combustion chamber is gas phase. There's no "injecting" of liquids at all. There's no magic to the burning mixes of gases like there is with liquids; they mix and burn easily.

How did this even turn into some sort of open fight? All I did was post information correcting the mistaken claim that there should have been pintle injectors seen in the photo. A tiny short post. That should have been the end of it.

 

[ZachF]

Seems like Model Y could be 30-40B alone in 2021 or 2022. Hard to guess those out years. Small delays now could push gains out by years.
2021 guesstimate:
Model SX 7B 75,000
Model 3 20B 400,000
Model Y 30B 500,000
Roadster 5B 20,000
Semi 5B 20,000
Pickup 5B 50,000(who knows)
TE 10B
Total 82B not counting services-sales

They aren't going to sell 20,000 roadsters a year, probably 5k. Ferrari and McLaren only sell a few thousand cars a year.

 

[ZachF]

Okay, let's do that.

I love this ITAR-safe photo where the injectors are under-exposed to such a degree that they are completely invisible.

The photo is of Raptor. It has no pintle injectors, because it does not inject liquids. Were you talking about a different photo other than the one you were responding to?

Gas-Gas makes fuel mixing easy.

The hard part is making a full flow staged engine...

 

[TradingInvest]

The trade deal is coming in a few weeks, I think the probability is now above 95%. This deal will positively impact Tesla in several ways.

1. Stock market goes up -> Tesla vehicle demand goes up. People who see their stock holdings drop 30% are unlikely to buy expensive new cars, the reverse is also true.

2. When stock market goes up, it will lift the valuation of all stocks, including TSLA.

3. The possibility for a recession drops from 70% to 10%.

4. Less obstacles in the future when Tesla expand in China.

5. Tariff on parts imported from China drops.

6. China likely to reduce EV import tariff to zero.

7. China will not force US companies to transfer IP.

8. Shorts get burned so they have less money to play with.

9. Tesla is one step close to achieve Master Plan Part Deux.

10. Next, US will discuss vehicle tariff with EU.

This trade deal will have long term effect, not just this year.

 

[abasile]

Haha, I think I have equal antipathy for just about all spectator sports. So boring.

Much more fun to actually do something outdoors, or feed the brain with TMC and other sources. Or, if at a social gathering with a game on, just ignore the game and talk to people.

Tesla's "no advertising" model suits my Superbowl-ignorant family perfectly. We have no TV service, just YouTube and on-demand movies. While Tesla may eventually want to do paid advertising in order to reach a larger segment of the population, my fear is that this could cheapen the Tesla brand.

My ratings for sports:
Baseball 0/10
Basketball 4/10 (Loved MJ)
American Football 5/10
Rugby 5/10 (too much like Rugby League these days)
Superbowl 7/10
Soccer 9/10 - the beautiful game
Baiting US with how poor their sports are 10/10

 

[KarenRei]

The trade deal is coming in a few weeks, I think the probability is now above 95%. This deal will positively impact Tesla in several ways.

1. Stock market goes up -> Tesla vehicle demand goes up. People who see their stock holdings drop 30% are unlikely to buy expensive new cars, the reverse is also true.

2. When stock market goes up, it will lift the valuation of all stocks, including TSLA.

3. The possibility for a recession drops from 70% to 10%.

4. Less obstacles in the future when Tesla expand in China.

5. Tariff on parts imported from China drops.

6. China likely to reduce EV import tariff to zero.

7. China will not force US companies to transfer IP.

8. Shorts get burned so they have less money to play with.

9. Tesla is one step close to achieve Master Plan Part Deux.

10. Next, US will discuss vehicle tariff with EU.

This trade deal will have long term effect, not just this year.

Note that the stock would expect to see part or even most of its rise when it looks sure there will be a trade deal, not specifically when it's signed. For example, the news that's trickling out of the possibility of Trump meeting with Xi, that's the sort of thing that will start to appear as "They have a deal in place".

 

[Intl Professor]

I developed an aversion to sports in high school as an unpopular nerd at a football crazy school. We were usually state champs despite our moderate size. Just a few years ago that perspective changed. I witnessed a truly spectacular conversation between a beloved son and my beloved brother. All those stats and personal memorabilia requires substantial brainpower. It was a tour de force.

In high school it was not that my physical endowment was meager—years of cutting grass with human-powered mowers assured that. I was also acrobatic, a very good dancer. (Got an A in drill as a freshman at MIT in an ROTC class), and had considerable agility further developed at undoing female underwear. (I was never so pathological at the latter as a student I met many decades later who claimed he practiced by fixing his sister’s bra to a pillow.)

I hope my poor prose here is not so complicated as to obscure meaning for my beloved brethren and sisters.

The Gawds have created birth and death, travail and triumph, love and fake love, stocks and markets, for their own amusement, leaving to we clay figures at least meager opportunities for mirth and learning.